JBTC Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 Funny to see Bronte go full conspiracy theorist. Does anyone have any AUM or performance figures from the fund? It seems like the guy has lost his marbles at times chasing down weird rabbit holes. I think the candidates who didn't get hired avoided wasting years of their life. He does seem to enjoy a bit of controversy. The fund however is doing fine. Up 27% in the past 12 months and compounded 20% since inception. Is there a source on this? http://www.brontecapital.com/amalthea_letters.html Note that it may be a bit tough to judge him based on his individual shorts. He mostly shorts frauds and the short book has dozens of positions, each very small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 That track record only goes back to 2013. Wasn't he shorting Fairfax back in 2003 in collusion with other large hedge funds? Also any idea in terms of AUM? I saw something online around $100 million but couldn't quite get an idea if that's accurate. Like Ackman said a year or so ago, guys like Hempton and Chapman cling onto the other side of controversial stocks because it increases their media exposure and maybe helps their careers. I just don't know if Hempton also falls within that category but it certainly appears that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 That track record only goes back to 2013. Wasn't he shorting Fairfax back in 2003 in collusion with other large hedge funds? Also any idea in terms of AUM? I saw something online around $100 million but couldn't quite get an idea if that's accurate. Like Ackman said a year or so ago, guys like Hempton and Chapman cling onto the other side of controversial stocks because it increases their media exposure and maybe helps their careers. I just don't know if Hempton also falls within that category but it certainly appears that way. When did bill say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccplz Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 The ABB blogpost was an interesting read, but the arguments are without merit in my opinion. The blog post was an interesting read, but the arguments are without merit in my opinion. It's pretty obvious to anyone who has lived in China that e-commerce there is on a whole different level compared to e-commerce anywhere else. Taobao/T-Mall have become ubiquitous and integrated within Chinese society, and Alipay is used to pay for everything from bus tickets, to music concerts, to groceries. Thus Alibaba and Amazon/Ebay or Alipay and Paypal/Visa aren't really comparable companies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBTC Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 That track record only goes back to 2013. Wasn't he shorting Fairfax back in 2003 in collusion with other large hedge funds? Also any idea in terms of AUM? I saw something online around $100 million but couldn't quite get an idea if that's accurate. Like Ackman said a year or so ago, guys like Hempton and Chapman cling onto the other side of controversial stocks because it increases their media exposure and maybe helps their careers. I just don't know if Hempton also falls within that category but it certainly appears that way. My understanding is he had a fund consisted of US investors in the beginning which was later closed. The AUM is likely below 100mn although AUM is a poor indicator for either long-run performance or idea quality. What's most frustrating in the investing world is there are numerous people running large AUMs who aren't good and don't have the performance. I personally don't like managers who like to be involved in controversies and that is part of the reason I didn't invest in his fund a few years back. And I am poorer for my bias :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 That track record only goes back to 2013. Wasn't he shorting Fairfax back in 2003 in collusion with other large hedge funds? Also any idea in terms of AUM? I saw something online around $100 million but couldn't quite get an idea if that's accurate. Like Ackman said a year or so ago, guys like Hempton and Chapman cling onto the other side of controversial stocks because it increases their media exposure and maybe helps their careers. I just don't know if Hempton also falls within that category but it certainly appears that way. Early 2013 a few minutes before the famous CNBC fight with Icahn. I can't find the video anymore. When did bill say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 Bonte Capitals post does highlight a larger problem with companies in China. One that is no secret.....You just dont know if you can trust the numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBTC Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Bonte Capitals post does highlight a larger problem with companies in China. One that is no secret.....You just dont know if you can trust the numbers. What's interesting is that even though one might be aware that he cannot trust the numbers, given the numbers are there, the result is people base their decisions on the numbers. Some may discount them more, some less. Which is why China continues to publish its GDP at 7.0 for 1Q and 2Q each. No matter how skeptical the economists are, they start by tweaking the 7.0 to get to their own estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Why Alibaba's Massive Counterfeit Problem Will Never Be Solved http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelschuman/2015/11/04/alibaba-and-the-40000-thieves/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Why Alibaba’s Shopping Spree Makes Sense Chinese e-commerce firm uses deals to match up with Xiaomi, JD.com, Tencent http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-alibabas-shopping-spree-makes-sense-1447878600 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ritrading Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 I really want to make a bearish bet on BABA. Here's what I'm seeing in the latest 20-F - Interest and Investment Income makes up 65% of the pretax income, greatly shadowing what one would think is BABA's core business. - The 52BN (RMB) of Interest and Investment income is primarily due to non-cash gains of revaluation of existing equity interests and deconsolidations of existing interests. - 42BN (RMB) cash outflow for acquisitions of available for sale securities, held to maturity securities, and equity investees. This sounds like the basic scheme that Enron was using. Revaluing existing assets higher, claiming positive Cash From Operating Activities with simulatenously large Cash Outflows for Investing Activities. There's no real accumulation of any of the earnings that they claim to have. I'm trying to figure out the catalyst. Enron's catalyst was when they were finding harder to get new loans to let them fabricate more revenues. Loans were collateralized with their stock, so a drop in their stock price stopped them from getting new loans. (If I remember correctly in the Enron book "Smartest Guys In The Room") I'm looking to purchase very out of the money puts, and I'm looking for a way to reduce my loss to time value. Any ideas of what might hint at a catalyst? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prevalou Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 I really want to make a bearish bet on BABA. Here's what I'm seeing in the latest 20-F - Interest and Investment Income makes up 65% of the pretax income, greatly shadowing what one would think is BABA's core business. - The 52BN (RMB) of Interest and Investment income is primarily due to non-cash gains of revaluation of existing equity interests and deconsolidations of existing interests. - 42BN (RMB) cash outflow for acquisitions of available for sale securities, held to maturity securities, and equity investees. This sounds like the basic scheme that Enron was using. Revaluing existing assets higher, claiming positive Cash From Operating Activities with simulatenously large Cash Outflows for Investing Activities. There's no real accumulation of any of the earnings that they claim to have. I'm trying to figure out the catalyst. Enron's catalyst was when they were finding harder to get new loans to let them fabricate more revenues. Loans were collateralized with their stock, so a drop in their stock price stopped them from getting new loans. (If I remember correctly in the Enron book "Smartest Guys In The Room") I'm looking to purchase very out of the money puts, and I'm looking for a way to reduce my loss to time value. Any ideas of what might hint at a catalyst? other points to look at: -deferred revenue increasing sharply -share based compensation expense (impact of marked to market) -free cash flow -monetization rate -Ant Financial fresh funding round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ritrading Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 I just started looking at BABA again. The "monetization rate" - have they started charging a commission on vendor sales? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Why are you looking at it now? I am selling down my shares - story hasn't changed much expect there are less China fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ritrading Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Why are you looking at it now? I am selling down my shares - story hasn't changed much expect there are less China fear. I've had my eye on it for a while, for shorting. Now that it has gone up about 50% from when I last researched, it's looking like a more attractive short. Nothing much has changed aside from my risk going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abyli Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Why are you looking at it now? I am selling down my shares - story hasn't changed much expect there are less China fear. I've had my eye on it for a while, for shorting. Now that it has gone up about 50% from when I last researched, it's looking like a more attractive short. Nothing much has changed aside from my risk going down. Can you explain a little bit why you short Baba? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 If anyone's interested "Alibaba: The House That Jack Ma Built" http://a.co/dr2UNuE on sale for $1.99. Haven't read it yet, reviews are so so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolverine890 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 I think one of the most interesting things about BABA is that they have a very different e-commerce model than AMZN. As any follower of BABA knows, yesterday was the ‘Single Sticks’ holiday; a mega-shopping day dedicated to proud lonely hearts. The headline number for gross merchandise value (GMV) sold on this day was RMB 168.2B ($25.3B). Yet, total retail commerce revenue for the quarter is estimated to be between $9B and $10B. How could this be? Anyone familiar with AMZN’s accounting might be confused by this. AMZN considers both first and third party sales as part of their revenue, so it would make sense that BABA would also. Right? Wrong. BABA generates all its revenue from the transactions on its website. It sells very little, if anything at all. Which is why BABA’s revenue is lower, margins are hire and they won’t need much debt to fund future growth. I haven’t posted much. Hopefully you guys don’t mind the prose. For those who follow BABA this is pretty basic. For those that don’t, give this consideration. I think it’s a very strong competitive advantage in a global context; not mention how this business model synergizes cloud computing with retailers much better than AWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 23, 2017 Author Share Posted November 23, 2017 Ok, this is funny: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 I have no comment or opinion on this but those you are invested might find it of interest: https://www.barrons.com/articles/alibabas-fake-metrics-blasted-by-muddy-waters-1511222841 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlowAppreciation Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 https://deep-throat-ipo.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 19, 2018 Author Share Posted January 19, 2018 https://www.economist.com/news/business/21735043-alibaba-aims-matching-or-surpassing-amazon-web-services-2019-chinese-tech-companies-plan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The world is overweight BABA: https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/03/05/1520247093000/The-world-is-overweight-Baba/ They are also underweight AAPL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerry Capital Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 China Tech Titan Alibaba Plans Stock-Market Homecoming Technology giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is working on a plan to list on a stock exchange in its home market, China, according to people familiar with the matter, more than three years after its blockbuster initial public offering in New York. Decent little pop on this this morning https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-tech-titan-alibaba-plans-stock-market-homecoming-1521116131 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shooter MacGavin Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 How do you guys get comfortable investing in BABA or Tencent or others given the legally unenforceable rights to assets? I'm not asking as a bear or short or anything. I'd love to own these companies but I just worry about this. I remember when Jack Ma sort of seized Alipay from Yahoo! and they were basically helpless. In fact I had a conversation with CFO at the time about this. And that has kind of been seared in my mind. Also all these stories from Bill Browder with his experience in Russia and whatever (although a very different govt and situation, but still lack of enforceable rights for foreigners). What gives you comfort or how do you think about the risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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