txlaw Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 Big pharma, ATSG, RRGB. Looking into ETFC and BBV. Also trying to figure out the best way to take advantage of the coming distressed commercial real estate market (I'm thinking either BAM or FUR). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorrofan Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 Gold. Right now it is still summer time, volatility is low and the market is slowly going higher. Few care about these huge forecasted U.S. deficits (shall we say done deals) and these mysterious treasury issues that are always well received. Why worry, be happy! At some point, this will become front and center. There is just no way around it with the sheer magnitude of this problem. I don't think that we have repelled yet the law of supply and demand. By the way, I have never seen Warren Buffett discussing publicly about a potential issue that has not become a "real" one at some point down the road. It will matter big time some day. When exactly? I don't know for sure, but I have a feeling that following Labour Day that this feel good perception may start to change. If you don't like gold or can't understand its fundamentals, short the dollar some way or treasuries. Cardboard Buffett may have that opinion publicly, however his biggest disclosed portfolio move last quarter was to sell COP and buy JNJ. I'm only saying that because it doesn't look like he is backing up the truck on metals or commodities. The only move I've seen him make is to lighten up on commodities (oil) via that COP sale. Don't get me wrong , I think very highly of JNJ. In fact I have posted in the past that I wished Prem had bought more JNJ instead of the likes of Canwest, The Brick and Torstar. But given that the IEA has said that due to lack of investment oil production may tight by 2012, that you have the massive industrialization underway in China and India, and the weak outlook for the US dollar I don't see commodities as a bad place to be. It would also seem like an area where WEB could make a large investment (although he has said in the past he doesn't like commodity type businesses). LUK does however - they have invested in oil drilling, in iron ore, as well as copper I believe. Interesting though. cheers Zorro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 Humm never really got the story with PDS. I owned them in the past and made decent money off them but, the GW Buy didnt make much sense to me. I have looked at land drillers and I like HP and PDC, PDC at $4 a few months or so ago was dirt cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest kawikaho Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 Humm never really got the story with PDS. I owned them in the past and made decent money off them but, the GW Buy didnt make much sense to me. I have looked at land drillers and I like HP and PDC, PDC at $4 a few months or so ago was dirt cheap. PDC or PDS? I've been looking at PDS for the past 3-4 years. I don't know if it's wise going long a driller and NG trust when NG is at an all time low, and possibly even going lower. There was also talk of trusts losing their tax haven status in Canada. It's kind of up in the air for me and in the too hard bin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
claphands22 Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 Gold. Right now it is still summer time, volatility is low and the market is slowly going higher. Few care about these huge forecasted U.S. deficits (shall we say done deals) and these mysterious treasury issues that are always well received. Why worry, be happy! At some point, this will become front and center. There is just no way around it with the sheer magnitude of this problem. I don't think that we have repelled yet the law of supply and demand. By the way, I have never seen Warren Buffett discussing publicly about a potential issue that has not become a "real" one at some point down the road. It will matter big time some day. When exactly? I don't know for sure, but I have a feeling that following Labour Day that this feel good perception may start to change. If you don't like gold or can't understand its fundamentals, short the dollar some way or treasuries. Cardboard Great post Cardboard, I fear the same thing. I've increased my margin of safety for companies with USD revenues for similar reasons. Just wondering, why gold and why not high inventory turnover/high profit margin*toll booth like*/multinational businesses selling at a reasonable price like JNJ/KO/PM? Are you buying physical gold or gold securities and if so, are you worried about counter party risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted August 29, 2009 Share Posted August 29, 2009 I hold GLD options. I investigated counterparty risk and feel comfortable with it. Buying stable U.S. multinationals or other commodities/producers may makes sense to hedge against the dollar/treasuries, but you have to ask yourself this question: what happens if we have a double dip recession? IMO, oil and other commodities won't do well under this scenario. Oil is already abundant with large inventories while the price is currently high enough to keep producing a fair bit. It is also hard for me to envision JNJ/KO/PM share price going way up if the economy is weak and if the stock market declines. With Bernanke being re-appointed, if we have a double dip recession or only signs of it, I am convinced that monetization will go on in a huge way. Interest rates can't be lowered anymore, so quantitative easing becomes one of the last tool available. In 2008, gold went down along with other commodities, but this time around the situation is different with most Fed flexibility being gone. I think these are worth asking: If there is a double dip recession, is the Fed going to just sit around? If not, then what are they likely to do and what is the impact? Is there a possibility to see a terrible economy with massive inflation: Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe today? Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorrofan Posted August 30, 2009 Share Posted August 30, 2009 Cardboard You raise some very good questions. I would like to ask two questions. 1. As the total US Federal debt grows from $10 trillion today to $24 trillion in the next ten years is the most likely outcome the government devaluing the dollar and the country suffering 1970's style inflation if not worse? Is there any other way out for the government? seems unlikely? 2. Is it as bad in other parts of the world as it is in the US? China & India are still growing, even now. Demand for commodities, as these counties industrialize and absorb some 300 million+ people into the middle class, is going to grow. And China, the largest foreign holder of US dollars is buying hard assets - oil, other commodities, and yes gold. Will this demand outweigh the drag from the US? You almost tempt me to sell my BRK and buy gold.....I am not sure what the answer is, but these are interesting times! cheers Zorro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mmiller Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 Humm instead of symbols can we post thesis. FUR generates FFO (Funds Flow from Operations) of about $31.6 Million dollars each year and was purchased at around $160 Million Dollars. This gives it a value of 5 times FFO. There is also around $100 million dollars in the hands of a capable REIT Investor and 2 loan platforms (Concord and Mark Realty which may not be total zeros). This is another work horse position and I feel comfortable with the purchase price. FUR is below book and has capable focused Management with tons of skin in the game. FUR has less cash but has a portfolio of real estate securities. ESV - Ensco will weather this difficult period. Utilization will continue to drop and Ensco will likely cold stack some rigs. Ensco still generates between $750 million to $1 billion in cash flow, has no debt, and will have the largest fleet of deepwater rigs and all will be fully contracted. That has be worth more then $5 billion dollars, my guess is at least twice as much. CCHN is also very interesting. Here is a write up on it http://valueinvestingworld.blogspot.com/2009/05/clear-choice.html - Hard to get an order filled though. Its good to be right even if you are a little wrong... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/PacificSource-Health-Plans-to-bw-818826688.html?x=0&.v=1 The offer of $26 per share is a bit lower than our revised estimate of value ($35 to $40), but given the more difficult operating performance of the company over the last six months, probably appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 I never bought CCHN unfortunately. It ran up significantly prior to the buy (from $7 to $11) and I couldnt find a catalyst for the company. I eventually stopped following it. Not a bad deal for those who went into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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