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OGZPY - Gazprom


zenith

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i wanted to start a new topic on this company as one currently does not exist.

One of the funds, Alken asset management, has been a large buyer of Gazprom late last year at significantly higher prices, and is more than 10% of the holdings.

 

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¶16. © Gazprom is what one would expect of a state-owned

monopoly sitting atop huge wealth -- inefficient, politically

driven, and corrupt.  For years, with its exports and export

prices rising rapidly, it could easily pretend that all was

well and that the future was bright.  That pretense may now

be giving way to the new reality of declining sales, lost

market share, and an inability to maneuver adeptly in the

face of global competition.  Although Gazprom will likely

muddle along as a major corporation and major contributor of

jobs and budget funds, its economic contribution will likely

be diminished.  While Gazprom can still shut off gas to

Ukraine or to other parts of Europe, each such threat further

undermines the company's credibility as a reliable energy

supplier, and underscores the fact that Gazprom is

politically subordinate to the Kremlin.  Gazprom's influence,

both domestic and international, has been directly tied to

its cash flow -- money that funds employment, suppliers,

budgets, charities, foreign ventures, and, surely, many

private bank accounts and dirty deals.  Unfortunately for

Gazprom and for the GOR, the massive revenues and profits

that the company produced in 2008 are unlikely to return

anytime soon.  End comment.

 

Viewing cable 09MOSCOW2541, GAZPROM'S REVERSAL OF FORTUNE, PART TWO; COMEBACK

https://wikileaks.org/cable/2009/10/09MOSCOW2541.html

 

Viewing cable 09MOSCOW2528, GAZPROM'S REVERSAL OF FORTUNE, PART ONE

https://wikileaks.org/cable/2009/10/09MOSCOW2528.html

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-29/goldentree-goes-bold-in-buying-up-russian-corporate-bonds.html

 

 

 

Who’s afraid of Russian corporate bonds? Not GoldenTree Asset Management LP.

 

The $18 billion investment firm has been buying up the nation’s corporate bonds, saying the securities offer value after suffering a 5.4 percent selloff this year. Among its targets: securities of gas company OAO Gazprom, which now looks like “one of the best credits in the world,” Managing Partner Steve Tananbaum said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Stephanie Ruhle and Erik Schatzker yesterday.

 

“If you look at Russia, it’s a strong credit in a difficult environment,” Tananbaum, also chief investment officer at GoldenTree, said.

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  • 4 weeks later...
  • 4 months later...

I suggest a listen to Kopernik Global conf call today where David Iben discussed his heavy exposure to Russia and said similar to 2000, and prior periods, it is a great time to be in Russia, he also mentioned he would be good with 25% exposure and is increasing now,

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  • 3 weeks later...

Russia and Ukraine agree gas supply deal, this should benefit Gazprom and reduce some of the uncertainty, in addition the rubble finally gained against the dollar. the RTSI index is down some 20% more than the MICEX due to currency of the ruble devaluing significantly, hence Gazprom in local currency is actually up slightly for the year, but down in dollar terms.

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29842505

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  • 9 months later...
  • 1 year later...
  • 1 year later...

Today opened a 2.5% position.

 

I've owned this several times over the years, both the US traded ADR's (OGZPY) London traded ADR's (OGZD). Overall a very modest profit in total with much frustration. I'd buy It because it was cheap along with some perceived catalyst and sell it when something better came along or I got tired of looking at it trending down in my portfolio.

 

I was looking through the pipeline MLP carnage for the past week, particularly at the parent/GP level, more particularly at Enbridge (ENB). Decided that they continue to look like the Ponzi schemes I have taken them to be. Always need new capital and never have positive free cash flow.

 

Anyway, got to thinking more about pipelines & who seemed to be well financed with normally good cash flow which got me back again to the Gazprom beast. Still the same cheap story with a variety of potential catalysts along with the usual amount of fleas.

 

And there's also the dividend.

 

 

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Gazprom (OGZPY)

I think political and associated "klepto" risks are  more than reflected in the very cheap price. While this could have some really nasty surprises, it also has multibagger potential. The ~6% dividend shows at least some shareholder consideration.  About a 2.5% position.

 

I've been sitting on this damn thing for more than five years now. [very small position]. I suppose TwoCitiesCapital does, too. Waiting for the gas to flow into China in 2018. We should discuss it more in depth in its separate topic in the Investment Ideas forum.

 

I'm still sitting on shares I purchased a few years back following the sanctions. I added once or twice as it was falling, but haven't added any in the last year or two. I've been adding to LUKOY instead because it seems to respond more readily to positive news than Gazprom which has just been stuck in the mud.

 

I had pretty heavy allocations to Russia via Gazprom, Lukoy, and Sberbank and Gazprom has been by far the largest disappointment. LUKOY has performed reasonably well and Sberbank has been one of the best investments of my life. All in all - I still believe Russia is the place to be looking for value - I'm less convinced that Gazprom is the company to find it in. Despite that, I'll continue to hold the shares I own simply because the price/dividend are still decent and I could always be surprised. It's not too hard a case to get a valuation 2x-3x as high as today's and still trade at sizeable discounts to other majors.

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I thought about the Russian Energy Sector often. But i pass. Great resources, low cost providers... but in the end it s an state controlle companyin a country full of corruption and an all mighty state. You will get of the profits what the state wants you to get.

 

I go with the american and european oil and gas companies in this downturn.

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Probably a basic question for those who know it well, but is there good disclosure on their capex projects? That's the part I could never get past from a quick review of the numbers. EBITDA is good, net income is good, but then you get to the cash flow statement and year after year all cash goes to capex with no noticeable improvements. With KMI, for example, they have a slide that says $X is going to transmountain, $X is going to other nat gas pipelines (mainly permian), etc, etc.

 

Nice call on Sberbank. From what little I've looked, Russia seems to be a beneficiary of the ICO/cryto boom. Not sure what, if any, impact that will have on their banking sector, but I doubt it will hurt.

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Probably a basic question for those who know it well, but is there good disclosure on their capex projects? That's the part I could never get past from a quick review of the numbers. EBITDA is good, net income is good, but then you get to the cash flow statement and year after year all cash goes to capex with no noticeable improvements. With KMI, for example, they have a slide that says $X is going to transmountain, $X is going to other nat gas pipelines (mainly permian), etc, etc.

 

 

The problem for me with their capex is that it's hard to know how much is spent politically & how much is spent for shareholder benefit. When I look at a release like the following, I'm never really sure what it actually means as a benefit for shareholders going forward, which is what I believe you are also saying.

 

Gazprom Approves $3.78 Billion Increase in 2017 Investment Plans

 

10/19/17 05:34 AM EDT

By Adam Clark

 

 

Gazprom PJSC (GAZP.RS) has approved a 217.34 billion rubles ($3.78 billion) increase to its investment plans for 2017, bringing total spending to RUB1.13 trillion.

 

The Russian state-backed natural gas company said the increase was prompted by higher spending and long-term financial investments for its priority gas transport and production projects.

 

Gazprom said these projects include pre-development of the Chayandinskoye and Bovanenkovskoye fields, construction of the Power of Siberia and TurkStream gas trunklines and development of the gas-transmission system in northwestern Russia.

 

Of the total spending, RUB738.54 billion is intended for capital construction, RUB378.73 billion for long-term financial investments, and RUB11.31 billion for asset acquisitions.

 

However, shareholders do get the dividend. Also, some of their pipeline and development plans are pretty substantial and could have massive payoffs. I look at it as a dividend play with a very interesting long term option attached. This is why I own it (again) & may buy more.

 

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The problem for me with their capex is that it's hard to know how much is spent politically & how much is spent for shareholder benefit.

 

That's simple...all of its for political purposes :). Or at least I consider that a fairly reasonable conservative hypothesis.

 

 

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The problem for me with their capex is that it's hard to know how much is spent politically & how much is spent for shareholder benefit.

 

That's simple...all of its for political purposes :). Or at least I consider that a fairly reasonable conservative hypothesis.

 

Do you think shareholders will ever benefit from any of this spending? Although the amount of shareholder benefit is not something I can quantify, I do believe there is some benefit & that's where the optionality comes from.

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The problem for me with their capex is that it's hard to know how much is spent politically & how much is spent for shareholder benefit.

 

That's simple...all of its for political purposes :). Or at least I consider that a fairly reasonable conservative hypothesis.

 

Do you think shareholders will ever benefit from any of this spending? Although the amount of shareholder benefit is not something I can quantify, I do believe there is some benefit & that's where the optionality comes from.

 

Well stuff is getting built so there is some value to all of it. I value Gazprom based on the reserves they control and view the pipelines they built as some bonus I don't know how to value. The company is corrupt and that corruption is more than priced in. But I don't think it can get any worse than it already is. I expect that when the sanctions end Russia will attempt to attract investors...its hard for me to see a flagship company getting even more corrupt with this in mind. I have no clue though when the sanctions will end.

 

But its cheap and something good may happen.

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  • 1 year later...

Nevermind. It's on news of a substantial hike in the dividend.

 

As per FT.com,

 

 

The share price jump came after Gazprom’s management proposed raising dividends for last year to Rbs16.61, more than twice the payout in 2017 and ahead of the Rbs10.43 per share the company guided last month.

 

 

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  • 5 months later...

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