snowball82 Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 Here the press release about the tender offer to Biotoscana’s shareholders. If this works the EBITDA at GUD should be +/- $ 50 M next year. And still have + $ 300 M cash (including Medison). https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/12/20/1963777/0/en/Knight-Therapeutics-Announces-Submission-to-B3-S-A-For-Unified-Tender-Offer.html Long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Some analysts see more than $ 270 M revenues, $ 50 M EBITDA and +/- $ 0.35-0.40 EPS after the closing (ref. GBT's 49 %). I have asked this question on another board and I'm curious to know the views from you here. If those numbers are right, what do you expect as valuation over next 12 months ? See below the only estimate we got for now https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.gud&postid=30496387 Thanks I own a large position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Don't see why it should change valuation (and it obviously hasn't). No obvious synergies, they paid the market price. Still expensive on P/E, SOTP unchanged. Not saying the acquisition was a mistake, but it still comes down to execution (and now perhaps currencies as well?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Don't see why it should change valuation (and it obviously hasn't). No obvious synergies, they paid the market price. Still expensive on P/E, SOTP unchanged. Not saying the acquisition was a mistake, but it still comes down to execution (and now perhaps currencies as well?). So we have a vote for a valuation at $ 7.60 here. Thanks. Maybe you are right but they also have lots of cash to deploy. Post acquisition they should still have more than $ 320 M cash (if Medison pays like they are supposed to do). Like you said, the execution is the key. 2020 should be interesting. Others opinions about the valuation post acquisition ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisowis Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 - $2.25 cash (excess over $40 million) - $0.25 in loans (80% of balance sheet value) - $0.06 in stocks - $0.72 in fund investments (80% of balance sheet value) Pharma business now valued at 15.3x EBIT, growing at 20+% annually - Tyler (@cdnvaluestocks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Don't see why it should change valuation (and it obviously hasn't). No obvious synergies, they paid the market price. Still expensive on P/E, SOTP unchanged. Not saying the acquisition was a mistake, but it still comes down to execution (and now perhaps currencies as well?). So we have a vote for a valuation at $ 7.60 here. Thanks. Maybe you are right but they also have lots of cash to deploy. Post acquisition they should still have more than $ 320 M cash (if Medison pays like they are supposed to do). Like you said, the execution is the key. 2020 should be interesting. Others opinions about the valuation post acquisition ? I think it's difficult to get to a very different valuation than the current. I've only seen very light analysis on Grupo Biotoscana which is suddenly a very large component of the value, and I think that's a bit surprising. Isn't that a major deviation from the strategy, why has Biotoscana been such a dog, and how is that suddenly gonna change? Isn't one of the problems with Knight that Goodman raised too much money, so that all these small deals that he has done don't meaningfully move the needle? And now he has suddenly taken a major bet on Latin America. Perhaps Biotoscana is simply good value investering from Goodman, but I haven't seen much to support that view. Hopefully they'll elaborate a bit further when the deal is all set and done. I think it looks very interesting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Don't see why it should change valuation (and it obviously hasn't). No obvious synergies, they paid the market price. Still expensive on P/E, SOTP unchanged. Not saying the acquisition was a mistake, but it still comes down to execution (and now perhaps currencies as well?). So we have a vote for a valuation at $ 7.60 here. Thanks. Maybe you are right but they also have lots of cash to deploy. Post acquisition they should still have more than $ 320 M cash (if Medison pays like they are supposed to do). Like you said, the execution is the key. 2020 should be interesting. Others opinions about the valuation post acquisition ? I think it's difficult to get to a very different valuation than the current. I've only seen very light analysis on Grupo Biotoscana which is suddenly a very large component of the value, and I think that's a bit surprising. Isn't that a major deviation from the strategy, why has Biotoscana been such a dog, and how is that suddenly gonna change? Isn't one of the problems with Knight that Goodman raised too much money, so that all these small deals that he has done don't meaningfully move the needle? And now he has suddenly taken a major bet on Latin America. Perhaps Biotoscana is simply good value investering from Goodman, but I haven't seen much to support that view. Hopefully they'll elaborate a bit further when the deal is all set and done. I think it looks very interesting here. Biotoscana group is a public company so we can see the previous financials results there: https://ri.grupobiotoscana.com/en/financial-information/result-center/ That said, we know the results had been impacted by Actelion's loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Don't see why it should change valuation (and it obviously hasn't). No obvious synergies, they paid the market price. Still expensive on P/E, SOTP unchanged. Not saying the acquisition was a mistake, but it still comes down to execution (and now perhaps currencies as well?). So we have a vote for a valuation at $ 7.60 here. Thanks. Maybe you are right but they also have lots of cash to deploy. Post acquisition they should still have more than $ 320 M cash (if Medison pays like they are supposed to do). Like you said, the execution is the key. 2020 should be interesting. Others opinions about the valuation post acquisition ? I think it's difficult to get to a very different valuation than the current. I've only seen very light analysis on Grupo Biotoscana which is suddenly a very large component of the value, and I think that's a bit surprising. Isn't that a major deviation from the strategy, why has Biotoscana been such a dog, and how is that suddenly gonna change? Isn't one of the problems with Knight that Goodman raised too much money, so that all these small deals that he has done don't meaningfully move the needle? And now he has suddenly taken a major bet on Latin America. Perhaps Biotoscana is simply good value investering from Goodman, but I haven't seen much to support that view. Hopefully they'll elaborate a bit further when the deal is all set and done. I think it looks very interesting here. The Biotoscana’s appraisal report is available: https://www.docdroid.net/LMu6nIa/laudo-de-avaliacao-pwcpten.pdf#page=3 https://apicatalog.mziq.com/filemanager/v2/d/f78739c6-0e47-4145-8a2e-947b5835a922/60c2f7bf-82b1-e222-d22a-6c9436ed8bc3?origin=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I bought more below $ 7.60 https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/knight-partners-with-debiopharm-for-the-commercialization-of-trelstar-in-canada-300982559.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 The new investor presentation is available. https://www.gud-knight.com/wp-content/uploads/KTI_Corporate_Presentation_December-vF.pdf Do you believe in a higher valuation from $ 7.60 to $ 10.00 at year end? Who knows, maybe possible if they can close GBT. Now waiting the approval by the Brazilian Stock Exchange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 GUD.TO : Quebec, New Brunswick, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia and Manitoba join Alberta, Saskatchewan, in adding Knight's PROBUPHINE® to their provincial drug plans in the fight against the opioid crisis https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/02/11/1983458/0/en/Quebec-New-Brunswick-Newfoundland-Nova-Scotia-and-Manitoba-join-Alberta-Saskatchewan-in-adding-Knight-s-PROBUPHINE-to-their-provincial-drug-plans-in-the-fight-against-the-opioid-cr.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 14 new jobs available at Knight Therapeutics : https://www.gud-knight.com/category/careers/ Territory Business Manager, Oncology/Urology - Montreal NE Territory Business Manager – Oncology/Urology (BC/AB) Territory Business Manager – Oncology/Urology – GTA NE Territory Business Manager – Oncology/Urology – GTA SW Territory Business Manager – Oncology/Urology – ON SW Territory Business Manager, Oncology/Urology - Montreal SW Associate, Regulatory Affairs Operations National Medical Science Liaison (Quebec or Ontario) Medical Science Liaison, ONCOLOGY - Ontario Director, International Tax Executive Administrative Assistant Medical Science Liaison, Oncology - QUEBEC Manager, Regulatory Affairs Senior Financial Analyst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/16/2001471/0/en/Knight-Announces-Closing-of-Separation-Agreement.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 Someone know when Q4 GBT's financials results will be out ? https://s3.amazonaws.com/mz-filemanager/f78739c6-0e47-4145-8a2e-947b5835a922/5e4f7156-4994-4831-a604-e39020008445_GBIO_3Q19_Presentation_ENG.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 Thanks Snowball82 for your excellent question. I suggest to take few minutes to listen this next week : https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/27/2007951/0/en/Notice-of-Knight-Therapeutics-Fourth-Quarter-2019-Results-Conference-Call-and-update-due-to-COVID-19-pandemic.html And thanks for your contribution here. You are great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Snowball, I am always delighted to read your posts and have joined you on numerous investments. Please keep it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Thank you no_free_lunch Good to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 GUD.to good results, only one month of GBT's consolidated results. Stock price is still below book value. I own a large position. 2019 Highlights Financials Revenues were $47,461, an increase of $34,961 or 280% over prior year. Interest income generated of $23,542 an increase of $2,608 or 12% over prior year. Net income was $18,033 compared to net income of $24,079 in prior year. Adjusted operating income1 of $26,406 an increase of $9,023 or 52% compared to prior year. Corporate Developments Acquired 51.2% of Biotoscana Investments S.A. (“GBT”), a company operating in LATAM for BRL 595,662 ($189,024). Following the close of the agreement, Knight initiated the process to launch a mandatory tender offer (“MTO”) to acquire the remaining 48.8% from public shareholders. Launched a NCIB in July 2019 and purchased 7,249,249 common shares for an aggregate cost of $54,838. Entered into a definitive settlement and purchase agreement with Medison Biotech (1995) Ltd. (“Medison”) pursuant to which Knight agreed to sell its 28.3% ownership for a cash consideration of $77,000. In addition, both parties agreed to release each other from all claims and withdraw all legal proceedings initiated by both parties. The transaction was closed on March 16, 2020. Promoted Arvind Utchanah from Vice-President Finance to Chief Financial Officer effective March 30, 2020. Products Entered into a licensing agreement with Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (“Puma”) to commercialize NERLYNX® in Canada and received regulatory approval from Health Canada for NERLYNX® for the treatment of HER2-positive breast cancer. Submitted Ibsrela™ for regulatory approval for the treatment of Irritable Bowel Syndrome with Constipation (“IBS-C”) to Health Canada. Reached an agreement with the pan-Canadian Pharmaceutical Alliance regarding Probuphine® and to date have obtained reimbursement through public insurance plans administered by Alberta, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, Manitoba, Quebec, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Veterans Affairs Canada and the Non-Insured Health Benefits for First Nations and Inuit Program (“NIHB”). Submitted Imvexxy™ for regulatory approval for the treatment of postmenopausal symptoms of vulvar and vaginal atrophy due to estrogen deficiency to Health Canada. Submitted Bijuva™ for regulatory approval for the treatment of moderate to severe vasomotor symptoms associated with menopause to Health Canada. Partnered with Debiopharm to commercialize Trelstar®, approved for the treatment of advanced prostate cancer, in Canada. Knight expects to take over commercial activities in Canada in early 2020. Strategic Lending Entered into a strategic financing agreement with Moksha8, a specialty pharmaceutical company operating in Brazil and Mexico, for a loan of up to US$25,000 ($32,470). Entered into a US$5,000 ($6,585) secured loan with Triumvira for the development of its novelty T cell therapies and obtained the exclusive rights to commercialize Triumvira’s future products in select countries. Received US$750 ($1,005) for the full repayment of the strategic loan issued to Medimetriks. Received $3,639 for the full repayment of the strategic loan issued to Crescita. Key Subsequent Events Purchased an additional 2,169,278 common shares for an aggregate cost of $13,310 through the NCIB in 2020. Ensuring supply of medicines and safety of our employees during the COVID-19 pandemic. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/30/2008728/0/en/Knight-Therapeutics-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Year-End-2019-Results.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 It still seems like a show me stock. We need a few more quarters from the acquisition to see how that goes. The acquisition is a bit too small to really make a difference unless they can expand it. I would like to see them make some acquisitions, they should take advantage of their cash position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 It still seems like a show me stock. We need a few more quarters from the acquisition to see how that goes. The acquisition is a bit too small to really make a difference unless they can expand it. I would like to see them make some acquisitions, they should take advantage of their cash position. The transcript : https://seekingalpha.com/article/4335132-knight-therapeutics-khtrf-ceo-jonathan-ross-goodman-on-q4-2019-results-earnings-call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 https://www.cantechletter.com/2020/03/knight-therapeutics-keeps-buy-rating-at-stifel-gmp/ "Knight Therapeutics keeps “Buy” rating at Stifel GMP MARCH 31, 2020 BY NICK WADDELL Knight TherapeuticsStifel GMP analyst Justin Keywood likes what he sees so far from Knight Therapeutics (Knight Therapeutics Stock Quote, Chart, News TSX:GUD) as the company looks to repeat the success of CEO Jonathan Goodman’s previous Paladin Labs. In an update to clients on Tuesday, Keywood reviewed Knight’s latest quarter and reaffirmed his “Buy” rating and $10.50 target price, which at the time of publication represented a projected 12-month return of 71 per cent. Montreal-based specialty pharma name Knight Therapeutics released its fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2019, results on Monday, with Q4 sales coming in at $37 million, including $3.4 million for Knight’s Canadian business and $34 million from its newest acquisition, 51 per cent of Latin American pharmaceutical company Grupo Biotoscana (GBT). In the quarterly press release, Goodman said 2019 represented a transformative year for Knight in its mission to become a ‘rest of the world’ specialty pharmaceutical company. “The past several years we have focused on expanding into Latin America, resulting in this year’s acquisition of a controlling stake in Grupo Biotsocana,” said Goodman. “In addition, we advanced our Canadian product pipeline with the in-licensing of three new drugs and received regulatory approval for two additional products, while three submissions are pending approval from Health Canada.” “Looking ahead, we remain committed to supplying the medicines our patients need as our community faces an unprecedented health crisis and will continue leveraging our strong balance sheet to build a business our shareholders can be proud of,” he said. On the GBT purchase, Knight is currently in the process of acquiring the remaining 49 per cent through a mandatory tender offer which is expected to close within the next four months, according to Keywood, who said that GBT will act as a beachhead for GUD in its LATAM expansion, particularly in Mexico. On the quarter, Keywood called it a good start with GBT, as revenues of $34 million came in well above his estimate of $20 million. Looking ahead, Keywood pegged Knight’s pro-forma cash position at $360 million or about $2.60 per share, enough of a war chest to enact further M&A, the analyst said. “We view GBT as validating Knight’s strategy in replicating past success at Paladin Labs,” Keywood said. “The expected transaction multiple paid of 8x LTM EBITDA is also seen as favourable and de-risking to a certain extent. Knight’s pace of transactions has been similar to Paladin and now with evidence of execution on a large transaction. Paladin had 19 consecutive years of record revenues and another streak is in progress at Knight.” The analyst has added 2020 estimates, now calling for $242.0 million in revenue and EBITDA of $39.4 million with fully diluted EPS of $0.28 per share. “Our target price remains unchanged at $10.50 based on an estimated NAV at the end of 2020 and 1.4x multiple. As the GBT transaction progresses and strategic growth plans for the asset become clearer, our NAV and estimates will refine but a strong balance sheet and track record of management supports value ahead,” Keywood said."" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 ..the Unified Tender Offer process filed by 11718991 CANADA INC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Knight Therapeutics Inc., as informed to the market and GBT’s shareholders in the Material Fact disclosed on December 20, 2019, is available at Grupo Biotoscana website https://apicatalog.mziq.com/filemanager/v2/d/f78739c6-0e47-4145-8a2e-947b5835a922/f1caa73d-2546-997b-cdbb-724ca0778d15?origin=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 The tender offer is now public. Waiting a response from autorities. https://apicatalog.mziq.com/filemanager/v2/d/f78739c6-0e47-4145-8a2e-947b5835a922/60da0192-cf76-c0bd-5f69-b354506db526?origin=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Together we learn more. Is there someone here knowing if GUD made significant progress in Mexico ? "Mexico: 'The next big opportunity' With the agreement, Knight looks forward to the company's growth in key markets such as Mexico. "I think the big opportunity . . . the next big opportunity is Mexico. As you know, in Latin America, the two big markets are Brazil and Mexico," said Amal Khouri, vice president of business development at Knight. "The operations in Mexico are relatively small, but it's definitely a big focus area to improve, to increase operations and presence there," he added. Khouri stressed the fact that Grupo Biotoscana understands the complex commercial and regulatory environments across Latin America..." https://www.bioworld.com/articles/430783-multi-latin-grupo-biotoscana-acquired-in-transformational-deal-for-knight-therapeutics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowball82 Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 The annual information form is now available. Interesting information about the rest of the world strategy. See the attachmentannual.do.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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