GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics

[snowball82]

 

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ardelyx-announces-data-supporting-efficacy-and-safety-of-tenapanor-a-first-in-class-phosphate-absorption-inhibitor-to-be-presented-at-asns-kidney-week-2020-301149661.html

 

https://ir.ardelyx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ardelyx-and-knight-collaborate-bring-tenapanor-patients-canada

 

[snowball82]

The management has a view to have a solid foundation before growth. We know some investors would see 2-3 acquisitions per year and be aggressive like Valeant but it is not their way to execute.

 

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/10/26/2114172/0/en/Knight-Signs-New-Exclusive-AmBisome-Agreement-with-Gilead-in-Brazil.html

[snowball82]

Someone has forecast or expectations for this quarter ? It should be interesting to know more about Grupo Biotoscana consolidation.

 

https://www.gud-knight.com/investors-overview/events-webcasts/

[snowball82]

Q3 2020 Highlights

 

Financials

 

Revenues were $45,239, an increase of $41,209 or 1,023% over prior year.

Gross margin was $19,533 or 43% compared to $3,301 or 82% in prior year.

Interest income generated of $3,188 a decrease of $2,870 or 47% over prior year.

Adjusted earnings1 of $6,582, an increase of $1,020 or 18% over prior year.

Net income for the period was $17,492 compared to a net loss of $2,959 in prior year.

Corporate Developments

 

Launched a normal course issuer bid (“NCIB”) in July 2020 and purchased 797,952 common shares for an aggregate cost of $4,745.

Completed the tender offer process and acquired all of the outstanding Brazilian Depositary Receipts (“BDR”) of Biotoscana Investments S.A. (“GBT”).

Products

 

Obtained regulatory approval for Lenvima® and Halaven® in Ecuador.

Received regulatory approval from Health Canada for Imvexxy™ and Bijuva®.

Submitted a supplement to a New Drug Submission (“NDS”) of Nerlynx for HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer.

 

 

https://financialpost.com/pmn/press-releases-pmn/globe-newswire-releases/knight-therapeutics-reports-third-quarter-2020-results

[no_free_lunch]

I wish they broke out GBT's results.  Do you have a sense of where it's fcf is this quarter and how it performed relative to last quarter?  Is the adjusted earnings effectively GBT fcf minus knight corporate expenses?

[finetrader]

I bought some GUD this week.

 

thesis: A bet on the CEO

 

The time horizon for the thesis to play out (or not) is pretty long so I kept it relatively small position in portfolio.

[no_free_lunch]

I had a quick look at the financials.  The GBT numbers look horrible. They were not great to begin with and seem to have gotten worse.  Even if you back out amortization they had an operating loss whereas last quarter there was an adjusted profit.

[snowball82]

I had a quick look at the financials.  The GBT numbers look horrible. They were not great to begin with and seem to have gotten worse.  Even if you back out amortization they had an operating loss whereas last quarter there was an adjusted profit.

 

Really? What were your expectations in the current environment when the reps can’t meet the doctors ?

[no_free_lunch]

The Q3 numbers being worse than q2 is hard to explain by covid isn't it? 

[snowball82]

The Q3 numbers being worse than q2 is hard to explain by covid isn't it?

 

 

Here the transcript:

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-gud-earnings-conference-133000718.html

 

Other than currencies and delay to get sales traction for current products launch, do you see other explanations?

[snowball82]

 

Uddin sees .31 EPS for the year

 

https://www.cantechletter.com/2020/11/knight-therapeutics-has-price-target-lowered-by-mackie-research/

[no_free_lunch]

I think you are right snowball, it is probably just delays.  Still.. I am skeptical.  I will give them a few more quarters.  Interesting that it is having no response to covid vaccine announcements.

[snowball82]

I think you are right snowball, it is probably just delays.  Still.. I am skeptical.  I will give them a few more quarters.  Interesting that it is having no response to covid vaccine announcements.

 

This will also take time but ..  Antibe update

 

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investors-take-note-antibe-s-revolutionary-pain-drug-is-entering-phase-3-trials-1.1527633

[snowball82]

 

Who can explain this news to us ? Why working this now with the current stellar balance sheet?

 

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/12/10/2143382/0/en/Knight-Announces-Filing-of-Preliminary-Base-Shelf-Prospectus.html

[snowball82]

 

Knight Therapeutics deleted from S&P/TSX Composite

 

 

2020-12-11 19:19 ET

 

As a result of the quarterly review, S&P Dow Jones Indices will make changes in the S&P/TSX Composite Index prior to the open of trading on Monday, Dec. 21, 2020.

 

      S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX -- DEC. 21, 2020, DELETION

 

Company                          GICS sector  GICS subindustry                 

 

Knight Therapeutics Inc.          Health care  Pharmaceuticals                   

[no_free_lunch]

 

Who can explain this news to us ? Why working this now with the current stellar balance sheet?

 

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/12/10/2143382/0/en/Knight-Announces-Filing-of-Preliminary-Base-Shelf-Prospectus.html

 

It says in the press release its to obtain financing for acquisitions relavant to biotscana.  I just hope they issue debt. I can't see them diluting shareholders at this level.

[doc75]

I've been kicking the tires on this and was hoping someone who knows the company better could help me with something.

 

Much of the interest in GUD seems to be based on Folks looking at Goodman's success with Paladin and trusting him to intelligently deploy a big pile of cash. Given this, I've found it odd that Goodman is such a silent partner on the conference calls. Aside from a brief hello and goodbye, he doesn't say a word.  I haven't dug back into history to see if this was always the case but it's strikingly different from the usual jockey play.

 

Does anyone have any insight/comment on this?  Was it also this way back in the Paladin days?  I guess I'm wondering just how engaged he is in the day-to-day operations, or whether this is really Samira's show.

 

Also:

 

The BRL/CAD averaged 0.2478 over Q3. The Q4 average (to date) is .2395 so GUD will likely see further FX drag Q over Q. But BRLCAD has rallied over 10% since the low in early November. 

 

 

 

[snowball82]

Another view about GUD. Always good to read different opinions about stocks we own.

 

http://www.canadianvaluestocks.com/knight-therapeutics-post-mortem/

[snowball82]

I've been kicking the tires on this and was hoping someone who knows the company better could help me with something.

 

Much of the interest in GUD seems to be based on Folks looking at Goodman's success with Paladin and trusting him to intelligently deploy a big pile of cash. Given this, I've found it odd that Goodman is such a silent partner on the conference calls. Aside from a brief hello and goodbye, he doesn't say a word.  I haven't dug back into history to see if this was always the case but it's strikingly different from the usual jockey play.

 

Does anyone have any insight/comment on this?  Was it also this way back in the Paladin days?  I guess I'm wondering just how engaged he is in the day-to-day operations, or whether this is really Samira's show.

 

Also:

 

The BRL/CAD averaged 0.2478 over Q3. The Q4 average (to date) is .2395 so GUD will likely see further FX drag Q over Q. But BRLCAD has rallied over 10% since the low in early November.

 

@doc & with this news they plan to add capital to the capital base. The big issue still the capital deployment with high return on capital.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/knight-announces-filing-final-shelf-230800949.html

 

 

[MarioP]

One thing that is interesting with that prospectus is to put it in relation with the recent buyback. The price of the new share will tell us if the buybacks was a rational thing to do or just a reaction to external critics. I hope they will issue shares at a higher price than what they paid to buy it. If not I'm out.

[snowball82]

Another thing I’m curious to know more about is the ROI for the investments made over last 6 years. Other than for loans I don’t see info about it. Maybe it isn’t significant ref to no mature products at peak sales.

[no_free_lunch]

Thanks snowball, appreciate the Dec 15 article.  To summarize for others, there has been a notable and hard to justify lack of drug applications at GBT.  It is fine for the CEO to talk about a stock for your grandchildren but he still needs to be actively working.  I don't want him to sit on a cash pile and wait for the perfect pitch for a generation.  Is the market just too competitive now, does he not have an edge?  I will give this one more year, it's show me time.

[snowball82]

Thanks snowball, appreciate the Dec 15 article.  To summarize for others, there has been a notable and hard to justify lack of drug applications at GBT.  It is fine for the CEO to talk about a stock for your grandchildren but he still needs to be actively working.  I don't want him to sit on a cash pile and wait for the perfect pitch for a generation.  Is the market just too competitive now, does he not have an edge?  I will give this one more year, it's show me time.

 

M8 got new licensing deals over 2020 and GUD’s shareholders are waiting to see more action for LATAM. I’m a bit surprised they didn’t get new products for LATAM.

 

[no_free_lunch]

This is old news but I noticed GUD signed an agreement to market AmBisome, starting Jan 21. 

 

Knight Therapeutics Inc. (TSX: GUD) ("Knight"), a leading pan-American (ex-US) specialty pharmaceutical company, today announced the signing of a new exclusive distribution agreement with Gilead Sciences, Inc. (“Gilead”) for the commercialization of AmBisome® (liposomal amphotericin B) in Brazil. The agreement will be effective starting January 1, 2021.

 

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/10/26/2114172/0/en/Knight-Signs-New-Exclusive-AmBisome-Agreement-with-Gilead-in-Brazil.html

 

Gilead breaks out their global sales with AmBisome lumped in with Cayston.  They list $467m sales for the 2 combined in Q4 2019, annualized its $1.8b?  Some portion of that is for AmBi.  Certainly this is a step in the right direction.

 

AmBisome® (amphotericin B liposome for injection 50 mg/vial) and Cayston® (aztreonam for inhalation solution 75 mg/vial), were $467 million for the fourth quarter of 2019  compared to $797 million for the same period in 2018.

 

https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/press-room/press-releases/2020/2/gilead-sciences-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2019-financial-results

[doc75]

This is old news but I noticed GUD signed an agreement to market AmBisome, starting Jan 21. 

 

Knight Therapeutics Inc. (TSX: GUD) ("Knight"), a leading pan-American (ex-US) specialty pharmaceutical company, today announced the signing of a new exclusive distribution agreement with Gilead Sciences, Inc. (“Gilead”) for the commercialization of AmBisome® (liposomal amphotericin B) in Brazil. The agreement will be effective starting January 1, 2021.

 

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/10/26/2114172/0/en/Knight-Signs-New-Exclusive-AmBisome-Agreement-with-Gilead-in-Brazil.html

 

Gilead breaks out their global sales with AmBisome lumped in with Cayston.  They list $467m sales for the 2 combined in Q4 2019, annualized its $1.8b?  Some portion of that is for AmBi.  Certainly this is a step in the right direction.

 

AmBisome® (amphotericin B liposome for injection 50 mg/vial) and Cayston® (aztreonam for inhalation solution 75 mg/vial), were $467 million for the fourth quarter of 2019  compared to $797 million for the same period in 2018.

 

https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/press-room/press-releases/2020/2/gilead-sciences-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2019-financial-results

 

As per the first PR, it seems this was a renewal of a longstanding agreement between Gilead and GBT.    So it's good it was renewed, but I don't think this is indicative of Knight making progress.