cameronfen Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 I looked at this earlier this year and concluded that it was an overleveraged gym rollup that was underspending on maintenance capex. Exercise machines being abused and breaking is a fact of life in the gym business. Gyms are a brutally competitive business, and they fail all the time. Planet Fitness, with its franchising and anti-gym mentality, is the only company I know of that has figured out how to makes things work in the segment. Doesn't change the fact that it can't be a ten bagger again (although I'm not involved). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Overtime, I've just decided to not go near companies without moats/advantages. When the price goes down 50%, it's that much harder to back the truck up. Without better company/business, it's much easier to back the truck up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jckund Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Any reason this stock isn't going to 0? Trading at $0.52, which implies a $16mm market cap. Currently unprofitable, all gyms shut down. CEO issuing letters refusing to refund people or honor cancellations until the gyms are back up and running. $182m of debt, $180m of which is coming due this year (August 14, November 15). Payroll and club operating costs outstripped membership dues! And they just made a ridiculous acquisition of Flywheel in January by raising an additional $50m 2L loan. Obscene... only escape is a Ch. 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Yes it's a 0. Flywheel never closed though and I doubt it will. No way the seller puts up the mezz debt. Can you post the letter CEO sent about refusing to refund or honor cancellations? I think that guy is a real 0. Nonstop hype. If you go to their website can see how they PR'd he won entreprenuerer of the year. lol. Just another HF manager who bit off more than he could chew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 There are a TON of setups like this one right now. People are just too busy worrying about boogie men to take advantage. Haven’t looked at options here, but I’ve seen plenty of these types were you can even hedge out an upside reversal with dirt cheap calls as well. Value investing is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jckund Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Yes it's a 0. Flywheel never closed though and I doubt it will. No way the seller puts up the mezz debt. Can you post the letter CEO sent about refusing to refund or honor cancellations? I think that guy is a real 0. Nonstop hype. If you go to their website can see how they PR'd he won entreprenuerer of the year. lol. Just another HF manager who bit off more than he could chew. Yup, here you go. I received it this morning (I'm a member in NYC). "Dear Valued Member, We hope you and your family are staying healthy and doing well. I am reaching out to address the concerns members have expressed regarding membership dues. I want to reassure you that, as previously promised, we will issue credits to your accounts and address all membership-related concerns once our gyms are operating. As of last Sunday, President Trump extended the national “shutdown” to April 30th. We want to ensure that we do all we can in order to keep our members healthy during this time. Therefore, as of April 1st, we will begin to offer a free, premium, exercise streaming service to all our members via the Plankk app. The app includes more than 30 live classes per week including HIIT, Strength, Sculpt and Yoga classes. In addition, the app will allow us to feature your favorite trainers in streaming sessions. In addition, we will be upgrading all members that stay active during the corona crisis closure to Passport- Elite memberships through the end of 2020, a value of $600-$700. This means unlimited access to all club locations including our luxury Elite brands at your current membership rate! Members will be able to access more than 150 clubs when the economy reopens and we all get back to business. The Town Sports team is working hard to navigate uncharted territory while we continue to plan for what may be a challenging future. We have made some extremely difficult decisions, but they are decisions that should ultimately benefit the Town Sports family, our members and our gyms. We are working diligently behind the scenes to ensure we’re ready to accommodate our amazing staff and members when we reopen. It is our promise to you, that you’ll be welcomed back with a spectacular club experience. This promise, this goal, and our dedication to you and our staff inspires us to keep moving forward. I have spoken to many of you personally over the past few weeks and want to thank you for your support and understanding. We are looking forward to the day our doors open again and excited to see you back in the gym. Until that time, be well, stay strong and be safe. Sincerely, Patrick Walsh Chairman & CEO" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 I see people complaining on twitter. He is nuts but he will do anything to save his equity. What does he have to lose? He doesn't care if brand is ruined for creditors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 I can see landlords taking back those locations pretty quickly if CLUB doesn't pay rent. Those are highly desirable locations throughout the big cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 The terms of the 2013 Senior Credit Facility, as amended, provide for a financial covenant in the situation where the total utilization of the revolving loan commitments exceeds 20%, or $3.0 million, of the aggregate amount of those commitments. In such event, TSI LLC is required to maintain a total leverage ratio, as defined in the 2013 Senior Credit Facility, of no greater than 4.00:1.00. As of December 31, 2019, TSI LLC had outstanding letters of credit of $2.4 million and a total leverage ratio that was below 4.00:1.00. Other than these outstanding letters of credit, TSI LLC did not have any amounts utilized on the 2013 Revolving Loan Facility. On March 13, 2020, we borrowed $12.5 million from the 2013 Revolving Loan Facility. We expect the total leverage ratio to be greater than 4.00:1.00 for the 12 months ending March 31, 2020. Looks like they will breach their covenants today, and I wonder how long they can continue paying rent, i.e. beginning this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 Teetering on the brink of the Chapter 11 abyss https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/coronavirus-prompts-new-york-sports-club-parent-town-sports-international-to-consider-chapter-11-bankruptcy-filing Hopefully no one here owned this garbage barge. I learned what a poor business gyms are years ago when my "FT's All Nude Gym and Honky Tonk" start up failed after only a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 I learned what a poor business gyms are years ago when my "FT's All Nude Gym and Honky Tonk" start up failed after only a few weeks. :o I think you did not market that well. I'd join. I'd even pay $$$. Reminds me of that all-nude sauna/pool/etc. complex I went to in Germany years ago. Ohlialia. 8) True story dat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
changegonnacome Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 Would you short the equity here? or could PR CEO salvage the 0.33 cents left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 Would you short the equity here? or could PR CEO salvage the 0.33 cents left? The market cap is something like $10 million so, no, I would never short something like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 "the Company is facing significant debt maturities in the near term.... In response to these challenges, the Company’s board of directors is actively considering all strategic alternatives, including but not limited to negotiating with existing lenders, engaging with potential financing sources to raise capital, or filing for bankruptcy." https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1281774/000119380520000690/e619698_8k-tsih.htm Gold's Gym and 24 Hour Fitness have also recently filed for bankruptcy. The pandemic has been very hard on gym chains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 I beg to differ. If you live in NYC, you will understand how important being able to manage lease expenses are. Look at their gym vintages. A lot of them are 10+ years old. The trend in the city is that only businesses that generate high $/sqft can survive. Equinox is well positioned, NYSC not so much. If their lease expense structure is from 10+ years ago, you can be looking at a terminal business when these leases come up for renewal. You need to pick up the phone and call a few brokers and ask them what kind of rent is appropriate going forward. I agree that gyms will necessarily exist in urban areas, where I differ is that "perhaps the gyms that exist will be Equinox and not NYSC" Great discussion and feedback, thanks guys. Here are my fairly simple thoughts: I am not very concerned about their leases; they've been around for 40 years, continually managing their leases. I think gyms will necessarily exist in urban markets and therefore the biggest operator, which is this company, should be able to survive given their economies of scale in marketing. I am not very concerned about their debt; they survived the 08/09 financial crises with more debt and similar revenues. They have 3$ in cash per share. They are looking to close under-performing clubs (all of which are in the suburban market which has no barrier to entry). As far as FCF and owners' earnings goes, I am basing their maintenance capex on historical figures and also what management has stated it takes to maintain their operations: around 25m a year. I understand that their fixed assets last longer that what their depreciation rate suggests. This is central to the investment thesis here. I still like the position. I wonder how much increased lease expenses contributed to this From 2014 10-K Competitive Position Measured by Number of Clubs Market Number of Clubs Position Boston metropolitan 29 Leading owner and operator New York metropolitan 108 Leading owner and operator Philadelphia metropolitan 6 #3 owner and operator, #2 in urban center Washington, D.C. metropolitan 16 #3 owner and operator, #1 in urban center Switzerland 3 Local owner and operator only From 2019 10-K Brand Count New York Sports Clubs 99 Boston Sports Clubs 31 Washington Sports Clubs 9 Philadelphia Sports Clubs 5 Lucille Roberts 16 Total Woman Gym and Spa 11 Palm Beach Sports Clubs 3 Christi’s Fitness 1 Around the Clock Fitness 6 LIV Fitness 2 New York Sports Clubs - Switzerland 3 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 Total locations went from 162 to 186 Annual lease expense went from Minimum Annual Rental Year Ending December 31, 2014 $ 88,983 to Total 2020 $121,113 That's a 36% jump in lease payment versus 15% jump in # of locations or roughly 18% jump in lease cost at unit level. But they reduced NYC location by 9 and grew Boston by 1. The acquired concept likely doesn't have the kind of rent payment such as the NYC locations. If they file, it would be interesting to see what the reasons are on first day summary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5xEBITDA Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 If they file, it would be interesting to see what the reasons are on first day summary. Out of money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 If they file, it would be interesting to see what the reasons are on first day summary. Out of money LOL Rise in lease expenses may be related to acquisition of the "TMPL" (David Barton's current concept) chain of clubs in early 2018. I don't live in NYC, but I my impression that they tend to be relatively large. Barton is also probably more of a design and marketing guy than a "really good at negotiating leases" guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 They sold and leases one of their large facilities, on the upper east side, i.e. they were paying no rent before and then had to pay a lot of rent:) That's probably the biggest change in lease payments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 They sold and leases one of their large facilities, on the upper east side, i.e. they were paying no rent before and then had to pay a lot of rent:) That's probably the biggest change in lease payments. Yeah, I used to live right by there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 CLUB filed, crappy businesses just wind up doing crappy things https://www.wsj.com/articles/owner-of-new-york-sports-clubs-lucille-roberts-files-for-bankruptcy-11600083447 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 CLUB filed, crappy businesses just wind up doing crappy things https://www.wsj.com/articles/owner-of-new-york-sports-clubs-lucille-roberts-files-for-bankruptcy-11600083447 Does anyone know how to cancel gym memberships with NYSC? It literally requires a certified mail. That $29.99 a month is killing me on the inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 CLUB filed, crappy businesses just wind up doing crappy things https://www.wsj.com/articles/owner-of-new-york-sports-clubs-lucille-roberts-files-for-bankruptcy-11600083447 Does anyone know how to cancel gym memberships with NYSC? It literally requires a certified mail. That $29.99 a month is killing me on the inside. Is it paid by credit card? Could you ask card issuer to block payment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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