EGFEY - Eurobank

[Txvestor]

I'm not as pessimistic in a yes vote scenario. A yes vote would be a direct repudiation of Syriza negotiation tactics and administrative policies over the last 5mths. Tsipras would be under severe pressure to resign though i am not convinced he will. But he will be forced to accept the deal.

In a scenario where the deal on offer last week goes through and a change of gov't looks likely, I think the bonds might actually recover and ECB could eventually reopen the lending window to them.

Remember the greek economy was growing(sustainably or not is another argument) by the time Syriza took over and created all the uncertainty.

[muscleman]

Here is my prediction:

52% YES

48% NO

 

Greeks' finance minister resigns right away. Tsipras refuses to resign. Fights and chaos drags on.

[Zorrofan]

Here is my prediction:

52% YES

48% NO

 

Greeks' finance minister resigns right away. Tsipras refuses to resign. Fights and chaos drags on.

 

hows this for close....

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-03/greeks-split-down-middle-before-bailout-referendum-poll-shows

[Libs]

I would bet a lot of money on 'Yes' at 1/1.

 

When things are falling apart at the seams, people will grab onto a lifeline, even if it repulses them. Fear is a powerful motivator.

[Hielko]

I would bet a lot of money on 'Yes' at 1/1.

 

When things are falling apart at the seams, people will grab onto a lifeline, even if it repulses them. Fear is a powerful motivator.

But it seems to me that most Greeks don't understand what they are voting for and what the possible consequences are. And I guess that's even understandable given that it's a vote on a complicated proposal that doesn't even exist anymore instead of a straightforward high-level question. Add Tsipras telling the Greek people to vote no to improve Greece's negotiations position and end austerity, and it's understandable that the majority of the population doesn't really understand what's going on. To me, it just looks like a major clusterfuck created by Syriza.

[augustabound]

But it seems to me that most Greeks don't understand what they are voting for and what the possible consequences are.

 

I read an article that mentioned that. If they haven't followed the issue closely then the wording of the 2 questions on the ballot are extremely confusing for them.

[muscleman]

I would bet a lot of money on 'Yes' at 1/1.

 

When things are falling apart at the seams, people will grab onto a lifeline, even if it repulses them. Fear is a powerful motivator.

But it seems to me that most Greeks don't understand what they are voting for and what the possible consequences are. And I guess that's even understandable given that it's a vote on a complicated proposal that doesn't even exist anymore instead of a straightforward high-level question. Add Tsipras telling the Greek people to vote no to improve Greece's negotiations position and end austerity, and it's understandable that the majority of the population doesn't really understand what's going on. To me, it just looks like a major clusterfuck created by Syriza.

 

Is it possible that Tsipras intentionally designed the vote like this to induce people to vote no so he can leave the EU zone? If he directly asks people to vote whether they should stay in the EU zone or not, he will almost definitely fail to get enough people to vote for leaving the EU zone.

 

[muscleman]

Here is my prediction:

52% YES

48% NO

 

Greeks' finance minister resigns right away. Tsipras refuses to resign. Fights and chaos drags on.

 

Just saw this on WSJ: "A ‘yes’ outcome could make it hard for Mr. Tsipras to survive in office, although he has signaled in recent days that he would seek to remain prime minister whatever Sunday’s result."

 

This clown is going to refuse to resign. If a yes outcome happens and he continues the negotiation, I don't know what will happen next. Greeks are running out of cash and daily life supplies quickly in the next week or so, and EU leaders will not trust this guy at all to implement the reforms in the deal.

[frommi]

The bookies have now a probability of 80% for a "no" vote.

[Txvestor]

Looking increasingly like it will be a No vote. Most exit polls are that way by around a 3 point margin.

I am starting to beleive that Tsipras is a closet communist whose real goal is to get Greece out of the EU and to over time bulk up relationships with Putin's Russia. All the negotiations and attempts at compromise etc are stagecraft for this, so it can be accomplished blamelessly.

Markets will likely take a beating tomorrow.

[muscleman]

Looking increasingly like it will be a No vote. Most exit polls are that way by around a 3 point margin.

I am starting to beleive that Tsipras is a closet communist whose real goal is to get Greece out of the EU and to over time bulk up relationships with Putin's Russia. All the negotiations and attempts at compromise etc are stagecraft for this, so it can be accomplished blamelessly.

Markets will likely take a beating tomorrow.

 

Agreed. I am glad that I looked hard at Eurobank and didn't invest in it.

I just hope the rest of EU would be ring fenced.

[Guest longinvestor]

Looking increasingly like it will be a No vote. Most exit polls are that way by around a 3 point margin.

I am starting to beleive that Tsipras is a closet communist whose real goal is to get Greece out of the EU and to over time bulk up relationships with Putin's Russia. All the negotiations and attempts at compromise etc are stagecraft for this, so it can be accomplished blamelessly.

Markets will likely take a beating tomorrow.

 

Agree, this is Tsipras's goal of pulling out of EU.

 

On "this week-ABC", Krugman suggested this is bigger than Grexit and really the start of the unraveling of the EU at the fringes (read: South & East). I believe he is correct. EU's opportunistic southeastern expansion over the past 15 years was always untenable and was perhaps just a transitory state out of the political weakness these fringe countries found themselves in, at the time of joining the EU. The richer EU had everything to gain, preying on the southeastern weakness. So much for pretending to be a big brother. You have to be one or not.  Greece and other nations are trying to find their place in the post-modern world and it may or may not be with Central Europe.

 

I've been remembering a line from one of my favorite movies, "My Big Fat Greek Wedding",

 

Gus Portakalos "When my people were writing philosophy your people were swinging from the trees."

 

Wonder how much of this sort of thinking went into the vote today.

[muscleman]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/polls-close-in-greek-referendum-1436113280

[randomep]

 

Anyone hear of when the stockmarket and banks will open now? With the referendum done?

 

I checked out www.helex.gr, absolutely no mention of the crisis or shutting down last week. What a disorganized country!

 

 

[tombgrt]

Banks opening? I doubt it.  :D

 

 

[stevevri]

Not that this is a surprise at this point.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11719688/Defiant-Greeks-reject-EU-demands-as-Syriza-readies-IOU-currency.html

 

"One official say that Eurobank was "flat out of money" late on Sunday, even though Greek depositors have been limited to €60 a day since capital controls were imposed a week ago."

 

 

[SharperDingaan]

Good on the Greek people.

 

We would suggest that the banks will re-open on Tuesday morning, with NO limit on what people can withdraw. There will be pictures of flats of money in the lobbies of the major banks, surrounded by security, with staff taking notes from it to pay out the withdrawal requests as they come in. It will be turned into a media game to see if you can break the bank – amid shouts of joy, every time an empty flat is replaced with another full one. The banks need to show they can survive the run, and the population needs to release the tension of the last few weeks.

 

The ECB, as central banker to the Euro, will either supply all those flats of money as euros, or the banks will pay out Drachma – their choice. Fail to make Euro available, and the ECB demonstrates to everyone else in the Eurozone that they will not stand behind you. End of Eurozone.

 

Starting Monday, the Greeks will not just be negotiating for themselves, but for the other PIIGS as well. The demands will be aggressive, they will include material write-offs, and they will include extended term deferment. It is highly likely that it will end up being akin to a modern day Marshall Plan, and along the lines of the Icelandic model. And most of the world will support it, as it will finally move ALL of us forward.

 

Most would expect a new German finance minister by the end of the month, and perhaps some other departures as well. It is highly likely that there will also be a time limit on the negotiation, and another referendum on whatever the final terms are.

 

If the currency is Drachma, the Greeks could instantly restore most of their cuts over the last 5 years; and suddenly flow cash back to the populace again. Given the number of families relying on those pensions - the impact would be incredibly powerful.

 

If your portfolio manager allowed a 2% weighting to blow up your portfolio, you would instantly fire him/her; and try to rescue what you could. Exactly what we are seeing here.

 

SD

 

[constructive]

We would suggest that the banks will re-open on Tuesday morning, with NO limit on what people can withdraw.

 

Sharper, care to put your money where your mouth is? I would be happy to bet $10k against this assertion.

[SharperDingaan]

We would suggest that the ECB hands are tied while there is an IMF loan in default - so they will haggle tonight and tomorrow to agree a deal. The banks need currency to distribute, and distribute now, as people have to eat. It is urgent, and it would take some hours to airlift the Euro bills - so Tuesday is the first real opportunity to open.

 

Talk to any banker who has survived a run, and they will all tell you there is no rule book. To win the confidence game you have to go bold, in your face, be the carne barker - and survive. Invite depositors to withdraw their funds, and they will redeposit them with you in a few days - once you prove you survive. The central banks job is to be the banking systems liquidity backstop, and they are not answerable to the politicians.

 

The politicians are hurt, in shock, and drawing in the wagons. But until they reach a decision, the Euro is likely to drop like a brick in anticipation of a break-up. If its liquidity is flowing again Greece can afford to wait a few months, but the clock is ticking.

 

We have markets for bets. If you think Greek banks are not going to reopen soon, you can quite easily invest accordingly.

 

SD

[Spekulatius]

We would suggest that the banks will re-open on Tuesday morning, with NO limit on what people can withdraw.

 

Sharper, care to put your money where your mouth is? I would be happy to bet $10k against this assertion.

 

I agree. I think Sharper has a strange way to look at the issue. The Greeks are broke and their banks run out of money, but that is their problem, the rest of the Euro zone is pretty much ring fenced at this point. I guess the question is if the ECB will keep Greece afloat until they finally exit or not. If not, Greece needs to switch to the Drachme within days, not weeks. Then they can print as much money as they want to pay there bills, it's just a matter of how much you can buy with this stuff...

[muscleman]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11719688/Defiant-Greeks-reject-EU-demands-as-Syriza-readies-IOU-currency.html

 

"If necessary, we will issue parallel liquidity and California-style IOU's, in an electronic form. We should have done it a week ago," said Yanis Varoufakis, the finance minister.

 

This sounds like the beginning of Drachma.  :)

[meiroy]

We would suggest that the banks will re-open on Tuesday morning, with NO limit on what people can withdraw.

 

Sharper, care to put your money where your mouth is? I would be happy to bet $10k against this assertion.

 

I agree. I think Sharper has a strange way to look at the issue. The Greeks are broke and their banks run out of money, but that is their problem, the rest of the Euro zone is pretty much ring fenced at this point. I guess the question is if the ECB will keep Greece afloat until they finally exit or not. If not, Greece needs to switch to the Drachme within days, not weeks. Then they can print as much money as they want to pay there bills, it's just a matter of how much you can buy with this stuff...

 

Germany is going to have to adjust following its economic gains all these past years due to local regulation that pushed for higher local savings and higher consumption and debt at other European countries (and the US, everyone living off the US now... if EU breaks, how long till the US refuses to continue as a reserve currency?  Wars follow? The EU cannot break, not like this anyhow.)

 

After Greece it will be Spain and pals.

 

So, the only question is if Germany is going to pay a lot or a hella-lot. No other option.  German politicians have not been willing to take it up with the German population so someone else is doing their job.

 

This is definitely not a local Greece issue.

 

 

 

[randomep]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11719688/Defiant-Greeks-reject-EU-demands-as-Syriza-readies-IOU-currency.html

 

"If necessary, we will issue parallel liquidity and California-style IOU's, in an electronic form. We should have done it a week ago," said Yanis Varoufakis, the finance minister.

 

This sounds like the beginning of Drachma.  :)

 

I don't see it that way. The more I hear Varoufakis and Tsapris talk the more I realize they don't have a plan. This is a train wreck 6months in the making. In all that time, they never planned contingencies like IOUs or replacing Euros with Drachmas.  Even this referendum seems to be dreamt up only 2weeks ago. I really don't think anyone in the Greek government really knows where this is all heading.....

 

 

 

[randomep]

 

Varoufakis resigns. This is a good sign that the Greek government may change its combative way of negotiating.

 

 

[constructive]

We have markets for bets. If you think Greek banks are not going to reopen soon, you can quite easily invest accordingly.

 

Individual commenters are often much more irrational than the public markets are. I was hoping to take advantage of that.

 

Greek banks expected to stay closed until July 20: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102807140

Rumors of a 30% haircut on deposits: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9963b74c-219c-11e5-aa5a-398b2169cf79.html