muscleman Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 We have markets for bets. If you think Greek banks are not going to reopen soon, you can quite easily invest accordingly. Individual commenters are often much more irrational than the public markets are. I was hoping to take advantage of that. Greek banks expected to stay closed until July 20: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102807140 Rumors of a 30% haircut on deposits: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9963b74c-219c-11e5-aa5a-398b2169cf79.html These two articles happened a few days before the July 5th referendum. Come on, please bring some latest news. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11719688/Defiant-Greeks-reject-EU-demands-as-Syriza-readies-IOU-currency.html "If necessary, we will issue parallel liquidity and California-style IOU's, in an electronic form. We should have done it a week ago," said Yanis Varoufakis, the finance minister. This sounds like the beginning of Drachma. :) I don't see it that way. The more I hear Varoufakis and Tsapris talk the more I realize they don't have a plan. This is a train wreck 6months in the making. In all that time, they never planned contingencies like IOUs or replacing Euros with Drachmas. Even this referendum seems to be dreamt up only 2weeks ago. I really don't think anyone in the Greek government really knows where this is all heading..... Seems true. I am surprised that Tsprias is unable to submit a new proposal to creditors over 24 hours after the referendum. He seems to be an idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11719688/Defiant-Greeks-reject-EU-demands-as-Syriza-readies-IOU-currency.html "If necessary, we will issue parallel liquidity and California-style IOU's, in an electronic form. We should have done it a week ago," said Yanis Varoufakis, the finance minister. This sounds like the beginning of Drachma. :) I don't see it that way. The more I hear Varoufakis and Tsapris talk the more I realize they don't have a plan. This is a train wreck 6months in the making. In all that time, they never planned contingencies like IOUs or replacing Euros with Drachmas. Even this referendum seems to be dreamt up only 2weeks ago. I really don't think anyone in the Greek government really knows where this is all heading..... Seems true. I am surprised that Tsprias is unable to submit a new proposal to creditors over 24 hours after the referendum. He seems to be an idiot. Unlikely. He's either playing a prolonged game of chicken or wants a Grexit that he can blame on the referendum and "EU partners unwilling to make a deal". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
constructive Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 We have markets for bets. If you think Greek banks are not going to reopen soon, you can quite easily invest accordingly. Individual commenters are often much more irrational than the public markets are. I was hoping to take advantage of that. Greek banks expected to stay closed until July 20: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102807140 Rumors of a 30% haircut on deposits: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9963b74c-219c-11e5-aa5a-398b2169cf79.html These two articles happened a few days before the July 5th referendum. Come on, please bring some latest news. :) The no vote only reinforced the likelihood of negative predictions for the Greek banking system. Yes was a vote for change and no was a vote for the status quo: no compromise with IMF and Eurozone creditors and no more ECB funding for Greek banks. Thus, no chance of banks reopening until they get more ECB funding or self-fund with drachmas/IOUs/capital raises/other emergency measures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11719688/Defiant-Greeks-reject-EU-demands-as-Syriza-readies-IOU-currency.html "If necessary, we will issue parallel liquidity and California-style IOU's, in an electronic form. We should have done it a week ago," said Yanis Varoufakis, the finance minister. This sounds like the beginning of Drachma. :) I don't see it that way. The more I hear Varoufakis and Tsapris talk the more I realize they don't have a plan. This is a train wreck 6months in the making. In all that time, they never planned contingencies like IOUs or replacing Euros with Drachmas. Even this referendum seems to be dreamt up only 2weeks ago. I really don't think anyone in the Greek government really knows where this is all heading..... Seems true. I am surprised that Tsprias is unable to submit a new proposal to creditors over 24 hours after the referendum. He seems to be an idiot. Unlikely. He's either playing a prolonged game of chicken or wants a Grexit that he can blame on the referendum and "EU partners unwilling to make a deal". But he promised that if he gets the NO vote, he will get a better deal with EU within 48 hours, guaranteed. Are you saying that his game plan relies heavily on lying to move forward to Grexit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 But he promised that if he gets the NO vote, he will get a better deal with EU within 48 hours, guaranteed. Are you saying that his game plan relies heavily on lying to move forward to Grexit? Do you know a politician who hasn't relied on lying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pelagic Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Wilbur Ross still seems pretty confident the Greeks will stay in the EU. http://www.cnbc.com/id/102813043 Speaking on his Eurobank investment - "The last quote on Eurobank stock was a tiny fraction of its book value just before they announced the moratorium and the suspension of trading. So certainly at any kind of price like that, one would be more sensible probably to be a buyer than to be a seller," he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Wilbur Ross still seems pretty confident the Greeks will stay in the EU. http://www.cnbc.com/id/102813043 Speaking on his Eurobank investment - "The last quote on Eurobank stock was a tiny fraction of its book value just before they announced the moratorium and the suspension of trading. So certainly at any kind of price like that, one would be more sensible probably to be a buyer than to be a seller," he said. Do you think he could just go ahead and say something like "Well obviously EUROB is likely toast at this point. I can't sell my holdings because no one will take it at any decent price given the size and oh, the market is closed anyway.". That's just the position he is in. And even if he is 100% honest on his thoughts, he's still biased. I too believe there is a chance Grexit doesn't happen but I don't have to bullshit about how EUROB is possibly a steal now, that is very unlikely. I don't believe he has the luxury to be completely honest. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11719688/Defiant-Greeks-reject-EU-demands-as-Syriza-readies-IOU-currency.html "If necessary, we will issue parallel liquidity and California-style IOU's, in an electronic form. We should have done it a week ago," said Yanis Varoufakis, the finance minister. This sounds like the beginning of Drachma. :) I don't see it that way. The more I hear Varoufakis and Tsapris talk the more I realize they don't have a plan. This is a train wreck 6months in the making. In all that time, they never planned contingencies like IOUs or replacing Euros with Drachmas. Even this referendum seems to be dreamt up only 2weeks ago. I really don't think anyone in the Greek government really knows where this is all heading..... Seems true. I am surprised that Tsprias is unable to submit a new proposal to creditors over 24 hours after the referendum. He seems to be an idiot. Unlikely. He's either playing a prolonged game of chicken or wants a Grexit that he can blame on the referendum and "EU partners unwilling to make a deal". But he promised that if he gets the NO vote, he will get a better deal with EU within 48 hours, guaranteed. Are you saying that his game plan relies heavily on lying to move forward to Grexit? Oh he promised, my mistake. :D No seriously, he can also experience plenty of resistance from his party. In any case, betting that he is stupid would make you the patsy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 So the dumb and dumber show continues. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33426328 Except that this time even the US is calling them idiots http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/07/07/obama-greece-debt-crisis-alexis-tsipras/29816133/ It is now day 2 since the Greek banks were supposed to be out of euros; yet they have still been able to distribute 60 euro a pop at the ATM. Either the ECB euros held at the Bank of Greece have been quietly released, or they have found another source. Those Greek banks are going to open again, in days not months, and they are going to run. It is very straight forward to temporarily nationalize, open them, and pass out either Drachma or Euros - not IOUs. The decision will be made in Greece, and each of those Greek bankers will be extremely thankful for not having to take the responsibility. Dumb and dumber just don’t get this. The Greek demands have not changed, and there are no penalties for leaving – dumb and dumber were too incompetent to put them in. If the ECB does not put a realistic proposal forward soon, the next step will be the Greeks giving the ECB the terms (Icelandic style), and doing another referendum. When your banker keeps screaming at you how dire your situation is, does everything in their power to topple you – and STILL fails; he is really trying to miss direct attention away from how weak he really is. If Greece exits - dumb and dumber are not going to survive telling the German people that we just lost your money; and there will be a new ruling party in Germany. Real leaders step up to the plate when the sh1t hits the fan; even the Greeks. The wannabees just freeze, like deer in the headllight. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 And the answer to where those extra Euros are coming from .... http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/european-business/greece-faces-last-chance-to-stay-in-euro-as-cash-runs-low/article25334699/ However, euro zone sources in Brussels said ECB President Mario Draghi had assured finance ministers that the central bank would keep Greek lenders afloat this week as long as negotiations were under way. .. it is nice to see some adults in the room. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 http://www.wsj.com/articles/for-some-in-syriza-a-greek-euro-exit-is-goal-1436388761 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 http://www.naftemporiki.gr/finance/story/976680/the-greek-reform-proposals Looks like SD's prediction isn't right so far. Tsipras is not smart. Hold a referendum and get the country to vote No, and immediately submit a proposal that his people just voted NO? Only a clown can do this. :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorrofan Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 http://www.naftemporiki.gr/finance/story/976680/the-greek-reform-proposals Looks like SD's prediction isn't right so far. Tsipras is not smart. Hold a referendum and get the country to vote No, and immediately submit a proposal that his people just voted NO? Only a clown can do this. :D or the actions of someone who is desperate? Okay, he is not brilliant but he is in a difficult position. Greece desperately needs to reform but at the same time the economy has contracted 25% and the people are suffering. If the economy contracted 25% here in the US and China, as one of our biggest creditors, demanded massive cuts to social security and medicare what do you think the public's reaction would be? cheers Zorro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 If the economy contracted 25% here in the US and China, as one of our biggest creditors, demanded massive cuts to social security and medicare what do you think the public's reaction would be? That just shows how stupid the construction of the € is, the US would show China the middlefinger while printing the necessary money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 I am actually surprised by his about-face. Greece held all of the cards - when you owe someone hundreds of billions, it's their problem and not yours. I don't understand why he caved so quickly after the referendum. Surely it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that if you could print your own money, the currency devaluation would help Greece tremendously. So you wave that in front of the Euro-group leaders and threaten that your success will bring Spain and Italy with you and you demand haircuts on your debt to make it reasonably serviceable and for reasonable fiscal targets and boom...solved. Instead, he folds.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorrofan Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 I am actually surprised by his about-face. Greece held all of the cards - when you owe someone hundreds of billions, it's their problem and not yours. I don't understand why he caved so quickly after the referendum. Surely it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that if you could print your own money, the currency devaluation would help Greece tremendously. So you wave that in front of the Euro-group leaders and threaten that your success will bring Spain and Italy with you and you demand haircuts on your debt to make it reasonably serviceable and for reasonable fiscal targets and boom...solved. Instead, he folds.... I also thought the fear of Grexit would help drive a much stronger deal for Greece. The turmoil in the EU would be huge.....but here is an interesting commentary on his actions http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-10/el-erian-is-greece-s-tsipras-a-political-genius-or-lucky- cheers Zorro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 http://www.naftemporiki.gr/finance/story/976680/the-greek-reform-proposals Looks like SD's prediction isn't right so far. Tsipras is not smart. Hold a referendum and get the country to vote No, and immediately submit a proposal that his people just voted NO? Only a clown can do this. :D or the actions of someone who is desperate? Okay, he is not brilliant but he is in a difficult position. Greece desperately needs to reform but at the same time the economy has contracted 25% and the people are suffering. If the economy contracted 25% here in the US and China, as one of our biggest creditors, demanded massive cuts to social security and medicare what do you think the public's reaction would be? cheers Zorro Greece economy was growing the 2nd fastest right before Tsipras came into power. And he interrupted that growth and throw the country into recession again. EU's austerity measures worked in Ireland and Cyprus, and it seems working right before Tsipras came. Who should be blamed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportgamma Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Greece economy was growing the 2nd fastest right before Tsipras came into power. And he interrupted that growth and throw the country into recession again. EU's austerity measures worked in Ireland and Cyprus, and it seems working right before Tsipras came. Who should be blamed? Riiiiiiiiiiiiiight..... http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/gdp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Greece economy was growing the 2nd fastest right before Tsipras came into power. And he interrupted that growth and throw the country into recession again. EU's austerity measures worked in Ireland and Cyprus, and it seems working right before Tsipras came. Who should be blamed? Riiiiiiiiiiiiiight..... http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/gdp Quarterly trends shows a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-10/el-erian-is-greece-s-tsipras-a-political-genius-or-lucky- OK, SharperDingaan is El Erian. Now we know. 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportgamma Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Greece economy was growing the 2nd fastest right before Tsipras came into power. And he interrupted that growth and throw the country into recession again. EU's austerity measures worked in Ireland and Cyprus, and it seems working right before Tsipras came. Who should be blamed? Riiiiiiiiiiiiiight..... http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/gdp Quarterly trends shows a different story. http://i1161.photobucket.com/albums/q514/Hysmofyteligok/Giggles%20quotes%20and%20other%20stuff/internet-memes-joseph-ducreux-pics.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 We do not have the full story yet. It would seem that they are going to be extending upwards of 45% (145bn) of the debt for 40 yrs+, and reducing the coupon rate. Quite some prize, and well worth the strong hand he is giving up. And everybody is going to vote for this .. because it is going to set the precedent that allows them to do the same thing. Sadly that advisory slot was already taken :) SD http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11732926/Crippled-Greece-yields-to-overwhelming-power-as-deal-looms.html Mr Tsakalotos told the Greek parliament that Syriza aims to secure a swap of $27bn of Greek bonds held by the European Central Bank for longer-dated bonds at lower interest rates. "Many of Greece's debt demands are going to be accepted," he said. The government is also pushing for an extension of maturities on €145bn of bail-out loans (EFSF) deep into the middle of the century to avoid a fresh crisis when they come due as a clump in the early 2020s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 so this is what happened: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VersaillesinNY Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Let's get serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 ahhh SD my old friend....have been watching you all closely. skipped the greek banks and went to the financier-Fairfax and loaded up on them during their pull back...they will likely double down on the turn...and make out very very well extremely pleased to have a big position in Fairfax...love the team there...i expect a Markel type evaluation when this blows over. to be honest it is tails they win and heads they win as well...the deflation hedges (both US and Europe) would have taken off without a deal as we have seen China start to implode as well... We all know Germany wants and needs a deal there is no way that Merkel is eating that much debt...so it is likely already written up...governments down the road will deal with it. good theatre. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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