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EGFEY - Eurobank


gary17

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However any investment in greek banks has to be based on the assumption that Greek economy continues to improve and NPL will continue to come down. If that assumption holds true, investors in either bank are poised for good returns.

This is essentially the thesis here -- can over the next 5 to 10 years this Bank delivery earnings back to shareholders that's worth at least today's price.... so you are getting the future earnings for free :)

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i think they are almost half of the new shares issued

http://www.gurufocus.com/news/255692/prem-watsa-wilbur-ross-invest-almost-half-a-billion-in-greeces-eurobank

the thesis here is very simple:

- can prem & co repeat what they did at BKIR?

- can europe finally come out of its mess?

- can the bank be profitable again and is the current market valuation below what it would earn over the course of its expected lifetime? 

my own thinking is yes & given the ADR and the commons I went with the ADR for some additional margin of safety, albeit it's not that significant as others have suggested.

 

there's also alpha bank which David Einhorn has invested in as well that is worth looking at.  And of course NBG... 

Gary

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Hi Gary,

 

How much do Premier and Wilbur each have in it and did they pick up a chunk of the new shares too?

 

90% of the new offering (2.8b euro) was taken by international investors which includes cornerstone investors such as Fairxfax, WBR, Capital and Fidelity. I guess these investors subscribed for more than their initial commitments.

 

http://www.eurobank.gr/Uploads/pdf/PressRelease_OfferingResults_OfferPrice_ENG.pdf

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Very helpful! This sentence raised a yellow flag for me: "Loans 90 days past due at year-end 2013 rose to 29.4% from 22.8% in 2012."

 

The increase is due to acquisition of TT and Proton, which were acquired as "clean banks". The credit quality of Eurobank has supposedly improved with the acquisition of these banks. Sans acquisition, 90dpd actually fell in 2013 (542m) compared to 2012(692m).

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  • 1 month later...

http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/05/wilbur-ross-greece/

 

wilbur ross talks about greece and Eurobank

 

at 9:30 minutes

 

I know you like to follow great investors and most of the time it works well. But I still don't understand why it is better to buy EuroBank while you can use the same money to buy BPOP.

 

greece was and  is the biggest mess here in europe. it is at the absolutely bottom. beaten up big time. so i like the Situation. i like that prem and wilbur invested in Eurobank. it is a great Investment. their Team did a great Job at bank of ireland. i expect the same in greece. your pick in puerto rico is maybe also good, but iam more comfortable with greece right now. greece in comparison to puerto rico i would take greece.  but i also look at BPOP. maybe i will buy someday a few.

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I took a look but still confused. From the price chart, it kept going down, so where did Dromeus buy that gave him a big profit on this bank?

https://www.google.com/finance?q=FRA%3AEFGC&ei=HiTRU6nDAYSgiQLd0IGoBg

 

They have total assets of 76bn. I assume a 1% roa for normalized environment, which is 760 bn. I think this make sense as their current pretax-pre-provision quarterly income is 196 mn, so that implies 780 mn in the longer term.

Current market cap is 4.8 bn, so you are buying at a 7 forward P/E, which is not very attractive. Did you assume high growth for this bank?

 

 

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I took a look but still confused. From the price chart, it kept going down, so where did Dromeus buy that gave him a big profit on this bank?

https://www.google.com/finance?q=FRA%3AEFGC&ei=HiTRU6nDAYSgiQLd0IGoBg

 

They have total assets of 76bn. I assume a 1% roa for normalized environment, which is 760 bn. I think this make sense as their current pretax-pre-provision quarterly income is 196 mn, so that implies 780 mn in the longer term.

Current market cap is 4.8 bn, so you are buying at a 7 forward P/E, which is not very attractive. Did you assume high growth for this bank?

 

 

 

 

greece will steady recover. big opportunity to get growth as good bank. good owners like watsa and ross and their Team from bank of ireland. they will make it. i love the Situation. so much hate and fear

 

http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/08/brar-investment-fund-lp-reports-1-7-gain-q2-2014-holds-15-cash-pursue-opportunities/

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I took a look but still confused. From the price chart, it kept going down, so where did Dromeus buy that gave him a big profit on this bank?

https://www.google.com/finance?q=FRA%3AEFGC&ei=HiTRU6nDAYSgiQLd0IGoBg

 

They have total assets of 76bn. I assume a 1% roa for normalized environment, which is 760 bn. I think this make sense as their current pretax-pre-provision quarterly income is 196 mn, so that implies 780 mn in the longer term.

Current market cap is 4.8 bn, so you are buying at a 7 forward P/E, which is not very attractive. Did you assume high growth for this bank?

 

 

 

 

greece will steady recover. big opportunity to get growth as good bank. good owners like watsa and ross and their Team from bank of ireland. they will make it. i love the Situation. so much hate and fear

 

http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/08/brar-investment-fund-lp-reports-1-7-gain-q2-2014-holds-15-cash-pursue-opportunities/

 

Story investing could be one of the major errors. SHLD is a vivid example. :)

Wilbur Ross is a great investor but he is not fool-proof. Check out SNBC.

The link that you showed basically said a fund called Brar investment bought some Eurobank stocks. But their "thesis" laid down is no more than story telling, rather than checking any numbers.

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Seems like Greece is nearing the end of its recession:  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-13/greece-s-recession-eases-as-country-nears-end-to-six-year-slump.html

 

And here's an interesting article in Greek.... seems like Eurobank is amongst the cheapest while having the pillar investors:  goo.gl\9qcUVl 

 

I've also attached another Eurobank writeup I found - 

 

Good luck to all :)

 

Gary

Eurobank.pdf

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Seems like Greece is nearing the end of its recession:  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-13/greece-s-recession-eases-as-country-nears-end-to-six-year-slump.html

 

And here's an interesting article in Greek.... seems like Eurobank is amongst the cheapest while having the pillar investors:  goo.gl\9qcUVl 

 

I've also attached another Eurobank writeup I found - 

 

Good luck to all :)

 

Gary

 

thanks gary for the links :)

 

i like Eurobank very much. greece will come back and Eurobank will Profit from this. i hope we all have luck  :)

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Eurobank announced that it had entered into an agreement with entities of the Ukrainian Delta Bank group to sell its “PJSC Universal Bank” subsidiary in the Ukraine, for a total consideration of EUR 95mn.

 

The group reports that the transactions is expected to have a 5bp negative impact on its capital metrics.

 

The transaction is subject to customary conditions and authority approvals while is expected to close by the end of 2014.

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Eurobank announced that it had entered into an agreement with entities of the Ukrainian Delta Bank group to sell its “PJSC Universal Bank” subsidiary in the Ukraine, for a total consideration of EUR 95mn.

 

The group reports that the transactions is expected to have a 5bp negative impact on its capital metrics.

 

 

Does that mean they are selling below the book value?

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Seems like Greece is nearing the end of its recession:  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-13/greece-s-recession-eases-as-country-nears-end-to-six-year-slump.html

 

And here's an interesting article in Greek.... seems like Eurobank is amongst the cheapest while having the pillar investors:  goo.gl\9qcUVl 

 

I've also attached another Eurobank writeup I found - 

 

Good luck to all :)

 

Gary

 

"Eurobank’s P/TBV ratio is less than half of the other banks’ average."

Really? The market cap is 6.24 Bn, which is not far from their $9.6 Bn book value.

 

Remember when Wilbur Ross bought IRE, he entered at 30% of book value, and Ireland is a better and stronger economy than Greece.  :)

 

What justifies such an optimism? Why not buy BPOP, which trades at a similar discount to book with only 2% of nonperforming loans, instead of Eurobank which has many times more nonperforming loans?

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