EGFEY - Eurobank

[Eye4Valu]

http://www.eurobank.gr/Uploads/pdf/Eurobank_ECB_comprehensive_assessment_Final.pdf

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

 

Worth a watch just to get an idea of Greece's view on things. Long video though.

[Phoenix01]

Prem stated that Eurobank would be in trouble if Greece were to exit the Euro.  It is a risk that you need to take into consideration.

[VersaillesinNY]

Fokion Karavias, Chief Executive Officer, Eurobank Ergasias, Athens, Greece

 

Topic: Looking for and Creating Shareholder Value - Eurobank Ergasias’ Perspective

 

http://www.bengrahaminvesting.ca/Outreach/2015_conference/Karavias.pdf

[Eye4Valu]

Was anybody at this conference to hear Fokion Karavias' presentation? Curious what his thoughts on GREXIT and the current situation were.

[muscleman]

Recently Piraeus bank is dropping like a stone and seems to trade at a deeper discount than Eurobank. Is anyone taking a look?

The asset/liability inside/outside Greece seem to match, so if GREXIT happens, maybe it can still be fine?

[muscleman]

If Greek bonds default again, how will that impact the banks?

I am surprised how fast Piraeus is dropping. It is trading at a larger discount than other Greek banks. Is there any special concern about this bank?

[TwoCitiesCapital]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/23/greece-fairfax-fin-eurobnk-ergasias-idUSL1N0XK3IO20150423

 

Not much new here, except this:

 

Fairfax last year became a key player in the bailout of one of the country's largest lenders Eurobank, after it bought a 13.6 percent stake in the bank. The Toronto-based firm recently boosted its position in the bank further, even as Greek banks suffered deposit outflows in the face of fears over the Greek government's extended standoff with euro zone partners over reforms.

 

Anyone else hear about this? I would certainly be a little more comfortable if Fairfax or Ross was adding given that they have far more information than we do about the type of reserving the company is doing the current stress they're undergoing. I had limit orders in to add around 0.047 and 0.045 every time it dipped below USD 0.05. They never got filled though despite some trades registering in that area. It was unfortunate, but I wouldn't hesitate to add to my position at these prices if Watsa and/or Ross were given their level of information. I simply needed a lower price to help me accommodate for my own ignorance/uncertainty and lack of resources to determine how the current outflows are affecting operations.

[tombgrt]

I bought some at €0.09 myself last week. You'll have to bid higher than the current ask as the traders will want to rip you off a little. ;)

[muscleman]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/23/greece-fairfax-fin-eurobnk-ergasias-idUSL1N0XK3IO20150423

 

Not much new here, except this:

 

Fairfax last year became a key player in the bailout of one of the country's largest lenders Eurobank, after it bought a 13.6 percent stake in the bank. The Toronto-based firm recently boosted its position in the bank further, even as Greek banks suffered deposit outflows in the face of fears over the Greek government's extended standoff with euro zone partners over reforms.

 

Anyone else hear about this? I would certainly be a little more comfortable if Fairfax or Ross was adding given that they have far more information than we do about the type of reserving the company is doing the current stress they're undergoing. I had limit orders in to add around 0.047 and 0.045 every time it dipped below USD 0.05. They never got filled though despite some trades registering in that area. It was unfortunate, but I wouldn't hesitate to add to my position at these prices if Watsa and/or Ross were given their level of information. I simply needed a lower price to help me accommodate for my own ignorance/uncertainty and lack of resources to determine how the current outflows are affecting operations.

 

Piraeus bank seems cheaper than Eurobank, and larger.

Why buy Eurobank?

[Txvestor]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/23/greece-fairfax-fin-eurobnk-ergasias-idUSL1N0XK3IO20150423

 

Not much new here, except this:

 

Fairfax last year became a key player in the bailout of one of the country's largest lenders Eurobank, after it bought a 13.6 percent stake in the bank. The Toronto-based firm recently boosted its position in the bank further, even as Greek banks suffered deposit outflows in the face of fears over the Greek government's extended standoff with euro zone partners over reforms.

 

Anyone else hear about this? I would certainly be a little more comfortable if Fairfax or Ross was adding given that they have far more information than we do about the type of reserving the company is doing the current stress they're undergoing. I had limit orders in to add around 0.047 and 0.045 every time it dipped below USD 0.05. They never got filled though despite some trades registering in that area. It was unfortunate, but I wouldn't hesitate to add to my position at these prices if Watsa and/or Ross were given their level of information. I simply needed a lower price to help me accommodate for my own ignorance/uncertainty and lack of resources to determine how the current outflows are affecting operations.

 

I suspect WLRoss has also bought some more eurobank. There was a recent interview i saw with WLR, can't remember exactly where, i think it was either bloomberg, fox business or cnbc, and he was asked about his eurobank investment and the greek situation, and after some general comments he mentioned that their initial investment left them with some lock out interval etc and sounded like he wanted to add at the end of that period.

I think that before Greece leaves the Euro, at the very least there will be another election and I highly doubt the Greeks vote themselves out. Like an addict struggling to kick their habit, the Greeks just can't seem to reform their system. The irony is, I think if they pull it off, they have the chance to be a truly competitive economy built on hospitality, tourism, and can even attract manufacturing with their ports etc. Greece should not be where it is right now. They have much to offer the world once they get their act together. They do however need to pull up their socks and do the needed reforms. No age 55 retirements and shortened work weeks can be tolerated. Likewise wealthy greeks and closed professions etc need opening up. Lots of needed reforms.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/23/greece-fairfax-fin-eurobnk-ergasias-idUSL1N0XK3IO20150423

 

Not much new here, except this:

 

Fairfax last year became a key player in the bailout of one of the country's largest lenders Eurobank, after it bought a 13.6 percent stake in the bank. The Toronto-based firm recently boosted its position in the bank further, even as Greek banks suffered deposit outflows in the face of fears over the Greek government's extended standoff with euro zone partners over reforms.

 

Anyone else hear about this? I would certainly be a little more comfortable if Fairfax or Ross was adding given that they have far more information than we do about the type of reserving the company is doing the current stress they're undergoing. I had limit orders in to add around 0.047 and 0.045 every time it dipped below USD 0.05. They never got filled though despite some trades registering in that area. It was unfortunate, but I wouldn't hesitate to add to my position at these prices if Watsa and/or Ross were given their level of information. I simply needed a lower price to help me accommodate for my own ignorance/uncertainty and lack of resources to determine how the current outflows are affecting operations.

 

Piraeus bank seems cheaper than Eurobank, and larger.

Why buy Eurobank?

 

They just made an agreement to forgive up to EUR 20,000 per borrower - I don't know all the details or how much money this entails, but that sounds like a substantial write off which could be why it's cheaper. I don't have the time to fully evaluate the value of very competitor between my main job and my side business. I trust that W.L Ross and Prem Watsa did their research and that's good enough for me to leverage their experience and expenses involved. Also, to be fair, I didn't really get interested in this until after it had declined 75% from the value they purchased at.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/23/greece-fairfax-fin-eurobnk-ergasias-idUSL1N0XK3IO20150423

 

Not much new here, except this:

 

Fairfax last year became a key player in the bailout of one of the country's largest lenders Eurobank, after it bought a 13.6 percent stake in the bank. The Toronto-based firm recently boosted its position in the bank further, even as Greek banks suffered deposit outflows in the face of fears over the Greek government's extended standoff with euro zone partners over reforms.

 

Anyone else hear about this? I would certainly be a little more comfortable if Fairfax or Ross was adding given that they have far more information than we do about the type of reserving the company is doing the current stress they're undergoing. I had limit orders in to add around 0.047 and 0.045 every time it dipped below USD 0.05. They never got filled though despite some trades registering in that area. It was unfortunate, but I wouldn't hesitate to add to my position at these prices if Watsa and/or Ross were given their level of information. I simply needed a lower price to help me accommodate for my own ignorance/uncertainty and lack of resources to determine how the current outflows are affecting operations.

 

I suspect WLRoss has also bought some more eurobank. There was a recent interview i saw with WLR, can't remember exactly where, i think it was either bloomberg, fox business or cnbc, and he was asked about his eurobank investment and the greek situation, and after some general comments he mentioned that their initial investment left them with some lock out interval etc and sounded like he wanted to add at the end of that period.

I think that before Greece leaves the Euro, at the very least there will be another election and I highly doubt the Greeks vote themselves out. Like an addict struggling to kick their habit, the Greeks just can't seem to reform their system. The irony is, I think if they pull it off, they have the chance to be a truly competitive economy built on hospitality, tourism, and can even attract manufacturing with their ports etc. Greece should not be where it is right now. They have much to offer the world once they get their act together. They do however need to pull up their socks and do the needed reforms. No age 55 retirements and shortened work weeks can be tolerated. Likewise wealthy greeks and closed professions etc need opening up. Lots of needed reforms.

 

I think this is a bit much. Greece has made severe reforms. So much so that they ran a structural primary surplus in 2014 on the back of severe expense cuts. The real problem is euro demands are too high. Germany is demanding they run a primary surplus of 7% for the next 10-15 years (can't remember for exactly how long). There has never been a single euro area country, not even Germany, who has been able to do this. In fact, it's my understanding that Germany's high water mark was 3% and wasn't done consistently for a decade.

 

I tend to side with the Greeks here. Reforms have been made. More reforms need to be made and will be made over time, but Germany's demands are absolutely ridiculous in this light. I think it's totally reasonable for the Greek politicians to demand more fair treatment and more reasonable benchmarks while they work to restructure their debt, government, and economy. They've been demonized in the euro area like Fannie/Freddie, AIG, and the Banks were here in the U.S. and it's not fair for them to bear the brunt of a crisis that everyone participated in either through direct action or complacency.

[Txvestor]

Thats the price one pays for bankrupting oneself. If you don't think about leverage wisely BEFORE you get into it, you pay a heavy price when you are deep in it.

I don't think anyone is advocating for more expense cuts from the Greeks, but surely they need to work on making their economy more competitive. Their preferred way in the past was currency devaluations, but since they no longer possess that lever, they are having to do the other reforms.

They need to learn the hard lesson of living within their means. This is to a varying degree an issue for many of the western liberal democracies.

Those pretending like 18T of debt is nothing for the US are again ignoring the reality. If you look at the innate discomfort long term successful investors have with debt, you would realise that it is fools gold.

If Greece defaults they should and probably in time would be kicked out. They are entirely at the mercy of their debtors, who fortunately for them don't want them to default, but they need to step up because the patience of their debtors should also not be taken for granted. The frustration of the EU finance ministers at their meeting regarding the idle talk of varoufakis was quite palpable. The Greeks need to put up or shut up. I suspect sooner or later it is going to come to that. The longer this game of charades goes on, the better prepared the counterparties would be to an eventual default, and the ECB and other EU institutions to isolating the impact of an eventual default. In my observation, a crisis seldom arrives with a long prelude for that precise reason.

 

[kab60]

I think Greek would be better off defaulting. They are loaded with too much debt they will never be able to pay back. Tough luck for the lenders, but that is why you earn interest. My fear is that ordinary Greeks and Europeans pick up the tab while most of the banks have gotten out in time. Too big to fail - for banks and countries - creates perverse incentives.

[Txvestor]

I think Greek would be better off defaulting. They are loaded with too much debt they will never be able to pay back. Tough luck for the lenders, but that is why you earn interest. My fear is that ordinary Greeks and Europeans pick up the tab while most of the banks have gotten out in time. Too big to fail - for banks and countries - creates perverse incentives.

 

Here is the flaw with your logic. The EU is basically willing to extend and pretend. Wink wink, nod nod, you owe us x billion, but we will stretch out the maturity, and drop the interest rates to damn near zero if not zero. It is like a slow default spread out over a 40yr period so as to make it palatable for their political constituencies. And remember 0% of anything is zero. Even with its massive debt, the eurozone is not asking for large payments here. The sticking point in the discussions is the needed reforms. That is where Syriza is inappropriately dragging their feet and testing the patience of their EU partners, saying different things to different constituencies and basically BSing around. Their first effort was a pan european populist anti austerity and reform approach in the struggling southern states and when that did not get much traction/sympathy, their approach has been drag and delay, then beg and plead. They conveniently ignore the examples of the Irish and others who took their medicine and came out on the other side.

Like you said, maybe they will default, and maybe they should, but if they do, i think they will go through turmoil like they have never seen, and the Eurozone will be alright after some initial tremors is My best guess, and for the reasons I mentioned previously, the greeks have already been ringfenced. And even after that turmoil, if they do not reform their economy and make themselves more competitive, they will struggle in this globally very competitive world. I hope the greeks choose wisely, of course they should get the best deal they can from willing EU partners, but they must reform themselves too. As i said many times, I think they have much to offer the world. They can be a very prosperous country, but they must change their ways.

[Sunrider]

2CC

 

Just a quick note - this is not Germany vs. Greece (unfortunately this is the short-hand that the left-wing government has introduced in the Greek media as a convenient way to detract from their immature and irresponsible approach to negotiations).

 

I should disclose that I was born in Germany (don't live there anymore) and that I was at a Greek wedding with lots of Greeks from Greece just yesterday.

 

Sadly, once you have a government minister in Greece saying in an interview that Schaeuble (German Finance minister) wants "to make soap with our fat" you know that you're dealing with infantile, vote grubbing populists and you can understand why the entire Eurozone Group of Finance ministers isn't very willing to give much to the Greeks in these negotiations. (A very unfortunate, uncalled for ad-hominem attack harking back to the Nazi history and the persecution of Jews and minorities ... and that minister was not rebuffed or made to resign, as one would expect.)

 

They really did blow their chance after the elections to tone down the rhetoric and engage broadly with the Eurogroup ... there are many in Europe (and in Germany) that are of a similar opinion ... i.e. that the country needs help and that Europe should give it. In fact it is willing to do so. What is sad is that these politicians were so inept that they truly pissed off every single negotiation partner in the rest of Europe. You can't expect to be given more money after publicly proclaiming that you don't want to stick to contracts and agreements made, simply because they were made by the previous government. That simply is not a basis for intergovernmental negotiations and agreement (remember, we're talking a democratic change here, not a dictator who had sold out the country being ousted in a coup or something to that extent).

 

I don't think Germany has any interest in "punishing" the Greeks (for what?) or destroying the country or having it leave the Euro. In fact, its one of the Greeks' largest creditors and it's pretty obvious that this debt will, in real terms, never be repaid. So things are not as easy as saying "the Germans are too hard on them". Interestingly, there was a letter to the editor in the FT a few weeks ago from a couple from Ireland (both public servants whose wages were cut substantially after the GFC) who basically said that their country is now experiencing that the "German" approach (again, a misnomer in my view) is working as this country is recovering (despite the interest rates charged by the rest of Europe that is far in excess of what Greece pays). They, in essence, said thank you.

 

Many of the Greeks I spoke to yesterday feel similarly. They are disgusted by their current government and they recognise that the country got exactly what it voted for in the past ... and that they collectively f'd it up. The only thing they wish for is for a competent, not populist and honest set of politicians to finally take the country forward, through hard times that will undoubtedly come because they know that, under whatever terms (and however much eased), the country can only prosper once people acknowledge the problems and change them.

 

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/23/greece-fairfax-fin-eurobnk-ergasias-idUSL1N0XK3IO20150423

 

Not much new here, except this:

 

Fairfax last year became a key player in the bailout of one of the country's largest lenders Eurobank, after it bought a 13.6 percent stake in the bank. The Toronto-based firm recently boosted its position in the bank further, even as Greek banks suffered deposit outflows in the face of fears over the Greek government's extended standoff with euro zone partners over reforms.

 

Anyone else hear about this? I would certainly be a little more comfortable if Fairfax or Ross was adding given that they have far more information than we do about the type of reserving the company is doing the current stress they're undergoing. I had limit orders in to add around 0.047 and 0.045 every time it dipped below USD 0.05. They never got filled though despite some trades registering in that area. It was unfortunate, but I wouldn't hesitate to add to my position at these prices if Watsa and/or Ross were given their level of information. I simply needed a lower price to help me accommodate for my own ignorance/uncertainty and lack of resources to determine how the current outflows are affecting operations.

 

Piraeus bank seems cheaper than Eurobank, and larger.

Why buy Eurobank?

 

They just made an agreement to forgive up to EUR 20,000 per borrower - I don't know all the details or how much money this entails, but that sounds like a substantial write off which could be why it's cheaper. I don't have the time to fully evaluate the value of very competitor between my main job and my side business. I trust that W.L Ross and Prem Watsa did their research and that's good enough for me to leverage their experience and expenses involved. Also, to be fair, I didn't really get interested in this until after it had declined 75% from the value they purchased at.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/23/greece-fairfax-fin-eurobnk-ergasias-idUSL1N0XK3IO20150423

 

Not much new here, except this:

 

Fairfax last year became a key player in the bailout of one of the country's largest lenders Eurobank, after it bought a 13.6 percent stake in the bank. The Toronto-based firm recently boosted its position in the bank further, even as Greek banks suffered deposit outflows in the face of fears over the Greek government's extended standoff with euro zone partners over reforms.

 

Anyone else hear about this? I would certainly be a little more comfortable if Fairfax or Ross was adding given that they have far more information than we do about the type of reserving the company is doing the current stress they're undergoing. I had limit orders in to add around 0.047 and 0.045 every time it dipped below USD 0.05. They never got filled though despite some trades registering in that area. It was unfortunate, but I wouldn't hesitate to add to my position at these prices if Watsa and/or Ross were given their level of information. I simply needed a lower price to help me accommodate for my own ignorance/uncertainty and lack of resources to determine how the current outflows are affecting operations.

 

I suspect WLRoss has also bought some more eurobank. There was a recent interview i saw with WLR, can't remember exactly where, i think it was either bloomberg, fox business or cnbc, and he was asked about his eurobank investment and the greek situation, and after some general comments he mentioned that their initial investment left them with some lock out interval etc and sounded like he wanted to add at the end of that period.

I think that before Greece leaves the Euro, at the very least there will be another election and I highly doubt the Greeks vote themselves out. Like an addict struggling to kick their habit, the Greeks just can't seem to reform their system. The irony is, I think if they pull it off, they have the chance to be a truly competitive economy built on hospitality, tourism, and can even attract manufacturing with their ports etc. Greece should not be where it is right now. They have much to offer the world once they get their act together. They do however need to pull up their socks and do the needed reforms. No age 55 retirements and shortened work weeks can be tolerated. Likewise wealthy greeks and closed professions etc need opening up. Lots of needed reforms.

 

I think this is a bit much. Greece has made severe reforms. So much so that they ran a structural primary surplus in 2014 on the back of severe expense cuts. The real problem is euro demands are too high. Germany is demanding they run a primary surplus of 7% for the next 10-15 years (can't remember for exactly how long). There has never been a single euro area country, not even Germany, who has been able to do this. In fact, it's my understanding that Germany's high water mark was 3% and wasn't done consistently for a decade.

 

I tend to side with the Greeks here. Reforms have been made. More reforms need to be made and will be made over time, but Germany's demands are absolutely ridiculous in this light. I think it's totally reasonable for the Greek politicians to demand more fair treatment and more reasonable benchmarks while they work to restructure their debt, government, and economy. They've been demonized in the euro area like Fannie/Freddie, AIG, and the Banks were here in the U.S. and it's not fair for them to bear the brunt of a crisis that everyone participated in either through direct action or complacency.

[Eye4Valu]

http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/05/26/canadian-financier-watsa-im-optimistic-about-greece/

 

Let's make a deal!

[frommi]

http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/05/26/canadian-financier-watsa-im-optimistic-about-greece/

 

Let's make a deal!

 

Don`t count on a deal. Lagarde and Schäuble have both talked about a GR-Exit now and with the greece politicians not moving it looks like greece can be forced to exit the € any weekend now.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/05/26/canadian-financier-watsa-im-optimistic-about-greece/

 

Let's make a deal!

 

Don`t count on a deal. Lagarde and Schäuble have both talked about a GR-Exit now and with the greece politicians not moving it looks like greece can be forced to exit the € any weekend now.

 

Doubtful. I personally believe all of this is just posturing and you'll get a deal in the 11th hour when one of the two sides blinks. I could certainly be wrong here, but I don't think that the Greek citizens who voted to stay in Greece will allow their politicians to get away with a purposeful default that gets them knocked out. Also, I don't think either side has anything to win in the short/medium term from exit, so an exit should really be untenable from all perspectives and something should get done.

 

That being said, I haven't been buying at these levels in case I'm wrong. If it were to fall back to the $0.05 range I'd be trying to pick up more, but none of my limit orders ever filled when it was trading in that range :/

[frommi]

Doubtful. I personally believe all of this is just posturing and you'll get a deal in the 11th hour when one of the two sides blinks.

 

Thats possible, but i think that german politicians will have a very hard time arguing for a third greece rescue package to the german public and bringing it through the parlament. The question is where it ends and without reforms there will be no end to payments. They burned nearly 250 billion € in 3 years, this is just like a hole without a bottom and long term both sides will be better off with an exit. (This is now public opinion in germany according to the latest surveys and for german politicians public polls are very important.)

 

And for greece to move the time is running out. At the end of june they have no money anymore to pay salaries and pensions in €, so what can they do?

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Doubtful. I personally believe all of this is just posturing and you'll get a deal in the 11th hour when one of the two sides blinks.

 

Thats possible, but i think that german politicians will have a very hard time arguing for a third greece rescue package to the german public and bringing it through the parlament. The question is where it ends and without reforms there will be no end to payments. They burned nearly 250 billion € in 3 years, this is just like a hole without a bottom and long term both sides will be better off with an exit. (This is now public opinion in germany according to the latest surveys and for german politicians public polls are very important.)

 

And for greece to move the time is running out. At the end of june they have no money anymore to pay salaries and pensions in €, so what can they do?

 

Well, I certainly don't really view the bail-out money as a loan. If European countries actually thought they were going to get paid back, they must not have been thinking too hard. Consider the episode where Greece defaulted and restructured private debts to be eligible to receive more loans that made it more indebted than it was prior to the restructuring/default. If that doesn't make you scratch your head about giving "loans" and expecting to be repaid then I don't know what would. It was simply a way of forcing losses on private bondholders before publicly funded bailouts were given - not a new "loan."

 

They're billed as loans to pass the test of public opinions of headlines. Realistically, they're a mechanism of wealth transfer to help Greece out in an environment where fiscal unity doesn't exist while still maintaining some semblance of access to international credit markets. That's why the maturities are so extended and the rates relatively low - furthermore, I wouldn't be surprised to see some form of restructuring take effect a few years out when it's more politically palpable for all parties involved to admit what the "loans" really were.

 

[influx]

http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/05/26/canadian-financier-watsa-im-optimistic-about-greece/

 

Let's make a deal!

 

Don`t count on a deal. Lagarde and Schäuble have both talked about a GR-Exit now and with the greece politicians not moving it looks like greece can be forced to exit the € any weekend now.

 

Doubtful. I personally believe all of this is just posturing and you'll get a deal in the 11th hour when one of the two sides blinks. I could certainly be wrong here, but I don't think that the Greek citizens who voted to stay in Greece will allow their politicians to get away with a purposeful default that gets them knocked out. Also, I don't think either side has anything to win in the short/medium term from exit, so an exit should really be untenable from all perspectives and something should get done.

 

That being said, I haven't been buying at these levels in case I'm wrong. If it were to fall back to the $0.05 range I'd be trying to pick up more, but none of my limit orders ever filled when it was trading in that range :/

 

I share this opinion too. I think this is a political game (theory). And someone maybe buying at these prices close to the politicians and they on purpose create a deep distressed situation when there are relatively normal ways out.

I can never know of course.

For me it is worth to risk something for a possible asymmetric gain.

 

Another interesting perspective:

www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/varoufakis-ecb-grexit-threat-by-hans-werner-sinn-2015-05

[gfp]

Wilbur Ross on CNBC -

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102740495

[influx]

Related to Pension system and VAT that Ross mentioned

http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/06/economist-explains-5

[influx]

Wilbur Ross: There’s no liquidity in the Greek economy

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/4290924655001/wilbur-ross-theres-no-liquidity-in-the-greek-economy/