Guest Schwab711 Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 The one fact I did not know but may be relevant is Greece has only defaulted once in the 20th/21st century in 1932. They defaulted 4 other times since 1800 but that was in in 19th century. This would imply a different situation than moat other 20th/21st century defaulters. I think the question Greeks need to ask is do they want to part of Europe or the Balkans. Packer Why do you think their default history is relevant? Do you think they'll receive better terms than Argentina, for example, because they haven't defaulted recently? I've been assuming their markets will react similarly to Argentina's in 2001 or 02. Do you think it will go better or worse? I've been dead-wrong so far by waiting for the default (and US market correction) that hasn't come. Another interesting fact, almost every sovereign default in modern history is due to high leverage ratios combined with a fixed currency (beware, China!). These countries struggle because they need to grow faster than the cost of debt AND relative to the nation they are pegged to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunrider Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 That is true and quite likely features in the thinking of the "northern" creditors as well. In fairness, Germany and other countries also benefited from debt relief in their history, which many Germans like to forget (of course, it doesn't help the other side's argument pointing to this after a history of fiscal irresponsibility, political brinkmanship and pure populism that, in substance, is no different from that of the politicians that people elected in the last 30 years that got Greece into this mess). What I wonder - after you negotiate with that Tsirper and he sits across the table from you and, presumably, tells you that his sincere, discusses solutions, etc. and then repeatedly flies back home to call you names (blackmail, wanting to stifle the will of the Greek people, etc. etc.), how do you sit down again with someone like this for the next round? I guess Kudos to the personalities in the room that still try to reach an outcome with someone who's repeatedly spat in their face! Ευχαριστώ! The one fact I did not know but may be relevant is Greece has only defaulted once in the 20th/21st century in 1932. They defaulted 4 other times since 1800 but that was in in 19th century. This would imply a different situation than moat other 20th/21st century defaulters. I think the question Greeks need to ask is do they want to part of Europe or the Balkans. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 He thinks if Greeks all say no to this bailout deal, he will have a stronger negotiation position? Why? What's the negotiation leverage? Because supposedly European leaders would be too afraid of contagion, so they give him better terms. Giving even better terms would do the opposite and cause contagion. You are after all giving in to their demands (or currently: the demands of a minority!) based on an unlawful referendum held last minute when shit is hitting the fan. By standing their ground, European leaders are drawing a line on the ground. Cross it by voting 'No' and it's effectively over. No better deal possible because they don't want to deal with increased critism and demands from Spain, Italy, Portugal, ... The whole project would have failed if contagion kicks in. Contagion would be a lot less worse if they let Greece go and make an example out of them. "Take our deals and accept your fate or this is what will happen." Btw, I'm confident the majority will vote 'Yes' out of fear. Common sense should prevail for once. Tsipras should resign after that and the circus can start again. Although the pressure for a deal should be so high at that point it's likely a sudden make or break. But who really knows, I'm just guessing like anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 He thinks if Greeks all say no to this bailout deal, he will have a stronger negotiation position? Why? What's the negotiation leverage? Because supposedly European leaders would be too afraid of contagion, so they give him better terms. Perhaps they did indeed think that the fear of contagion would give them a strong negotiation position, but they failed to realize that 2015 is not 2011. The subdued market reaction of yesterday only made it clear that this is just an empty threat. In addition to that it appears that they don't understand that giving in to blackmail would be a way worse result for the EU than the possible exit of a country with a GDP that barely registers. For a finance minister that is supposedly an expert in game theory he seems to have failed to understand the rules of the game... The current Greek government seems to be a bunch of amateuristic clowns, unfortunately the greek people have to suffer for that. But I can't feel too sorry about that since they did choose for Syriza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 "The one fact I did not know but may be relevant is Greece has only defaulted once in the 20th/21st century in 1932. They defaulted 4 other times since 1800 but that was in in 19th century. This would imply a different situation than moat other 20th/21st century defaulters. I think the question Greeks need to ask is do they want to part of Europe or the Balkans. Packer" I read and heard other stories about Greece default, that they were default half of their whole history: "Many European countries are culturally attuned to bankruptcy. Indeed, Greece has spent approximately half of the 182 years since it achieved independence from the Ottoman Empire in a state of default and therefore denied access to international capital markets – a position it is likely to resume in the very near future." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100081316/some-european-countries-are-in-the-habit-of-going-bankrupt/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 The half of history since independence in which they were in default was the 19th century. Portugal, Spain and Austria Hungary were in the same boat but I do not hear any talk of them being serial defaulters. Germany defaulted twice in the 20th century. I think the default history is really relevant especially when you have one default in the 20th century versus 5 for Argentina. In Greece'e case this is more of an exception since 1900 (a number of creditworthy countries defaulted in the Depression) but for Argentina it is the rule. In my mind, the serial defaulters have default in their culture while the no default countries do not. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 The Greek population elected their government, and they can change it any time as well. They haven’t changed it, because it IS doing what it was elected to do – change things for the better. Negotiators don’t have to see eye to eye; there are no ‘rules’. Your banker, extending you a mortgage, expects you to be humble and grateful for his/her doing you a favour. It’s a very short conversation, when you remind him/her that he/she is just a SALESPERSON in a better cut suit, and just one of many, offering the commodity product of money. F’ing ingrats! …. The very smooth powerful and the prestigious lead privileged lives, and get what they want by undermining their opposition through the opportune leak, poisoned whisper, etc. The rough and ready get in your face, and piss all over your rug; what is missed is that they are both extremely good at what they do. If there was no drama – the Greeks wouldn’t be very Greek …. and the world would be a far poorer place for it. The creators of the Eurozone are getting their noses rubbed in its structural unsoundness, and the Greeks are just calling the bluff. If there really is the Eurozone as claimed, the ECB will backstop the run on the Greek banking system and the IMF loan will be extended. If the ECB does not step up …. it’s just a rich man’s club – with different rules for the rich and the poor. If you’re one of the poor men in this, and getting beaten up daily.. why would you not just step away, take your currency and fiscal policy back, and start doing things for yourself again. Exactly as you used to do before the Eurozone existed. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
influx Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Negotiators don’t have to see eye to eye; there are no ‘rules’. Your banker, extending you a mortgage, expects you to be humble and grateful for his/her doing you a favour. It’s a very short conversation, when you remind him/her that he/she is just a SALESPERSON in a better cut suit, and just one of many, offering the commodity product of money. F’ing ingrats! …. The creators of the Eurozone are getting their noses rubbed in its structural unsoundness, and the Greeks are just calling the bluff. If there really is the Eurozone as claimed, the ECB will backstop the run on the Greek banking system and the IMF loan will be extended. If the ECB does not step up …. it’s just a rich man’s club – with different rules for the rich and the poor. If you’re one of the poor men in this, and getting beaten up daily.. why would you not just step away, take your currency and fiscal policy back, and start doing things for yourself again. Exactly as you used to do before the Eurozone existed. SD Well said. Iceland did it. They defaulted on (some) of their obligations. USA did 1971 with their gold obligations So it is, one wants them to stay in EUR so that one picks up equity gains as one of the motives. One thing I fail to understand is why the greeks are not reducing their salaries in EUR, and would very likely have to reduce (devalue) their salaries if they go back to drachmas (or whatever the currency) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S2S Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 You're making it sound like "poor man" Greece did everyone a huge favor by joining the EU. In reality, it is more the Greeks' obfuscating and contorting their own financials (read: they lied) until their government could enjoy the same 5% interest rate awarded to the Germans. Michael Lewis's 2010 piece, "Beware of of Greeks Bearing Bonds", is a good refresher on the topic: http://t.co/UilFyeMDWv The Greek population elected their government, and they can change it any time as well. They haven’t changed it, because it IS doing what it was elected to do – change things for the better. Negotiators don’t have to see eye to eye; there are no ‘rules’. Your banker, extending you a mortgage, expects you to be humble and grateful for his/her doing you a favour. It’s a very short conversation, when you remind him/her that he/she is just a SALESPERSON in a better cut suit, and just one of many, offering the commodity product of money. F’ing ingrats! …. The very smooth powerful and the prestigious lead privileged lives, and get what they want by undermining their opposition through the opportune leak, poisoned whisper, etc. The rough and ready get in your face, and piss all over your rug; what is missed is that they are both extremely good at what they do. If there was no drama – the Greeks wouldn’t be very Greek …. and the world would be a far poorer place for it. The creators of the Eurozone are getting their noses rubbed in its structural unsoundness, and the Greeks are just calling the bluff. If there really is the Eurozone as claimed, the ECB will backstop the run on the Greek banking system and the IMF loan will be extended. If the ECB does not step up …. it’s just a rich man’s club – with different rules for the rich and the poor. If you’re one of the poor men in this, and getting beaten up daily.. why would you not just step away, take your currency and fiscal policy back, and start doing things for yourself again. Exactly as you used to do before the Eurozone existed. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pelagic Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Maybe Watsa and Wilbur Ross can pitch in a few bucks to Greece's crowdfunded bailout. I think their funds target might be a few euros short though. https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/greek-bailout-fund#/story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
influx Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Michael Lewis's 2010 piece, "Beware of of Greeks Bearing Bonds", is a good refresher on the topic: http://t.co/UilFyeMDWv http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-05-07/greece-saunters-across-the-autobahn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Maybe Watsa and Wilbur Ross can pitch in a few bucks to Greece's crowdfunded bailout. I think their funds target might be a few euros short though. https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/greek-bailout-fund#/story The funny thing about this is that the EUR 1.6B is only a drop in the bucket compared to the total debt of 200+B. A massive restructuring/default is likely needed in the mid-term if Greece is to ever keep it's head above water. I'm sure that the EU knows this and that the politicians were just calling the bailout money "loans" to appease the populace. The math just doesn't really work out without the most generous growth assumptions - which in a world devoid of real growth is definitely setting an impossibly high bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 IMF Report: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11713944/Greece-needs-another-50bn-to-prevent-bankruptcy-and-will-not-survive-without-massive-debt-relief-admits-IMF.html - Greece needs at least another €50bn to keep it afloat for the next three years and a substantial alleviation of its debt burden. Of the €50bn the country needs to avoid going bankrupt, €36bn would have to come from European creditors "on highly concessional terms" said the IMF. The analysis also assumes Greece has access to nearly €20bn of rescue funds which have since expired after its current rescue ended on June 30. - Government arrears have reached €7bn so far this year, adding another €5bn to Greece's financing needs over the next three years. In agreeing to lower its primary budget surplus targets, creditors will have to stump up another €13bn of financing for Greece - It recommended that the beleaguered debtor be given a 20-year grace period before making any further repayments to its European creditors. - Without sustainable debt dynamics, the Fund is ready to pull the plug on Greece after its bail-out program ends in March 2016. But any move to extend the profile on Greece’s debts – which already stretch out to 2057 – have been fiercely resisted by eurozone member states. Such a concession would mean Europe's leaders would have to admit to their taxpayers they would not be paid back in full. …. So win or lose the vote on Sunday, the Eurozone has to come up with 50B+. An immediate 50B+ eurozone write-off, and at least 13B+ in new cash to get over this year’s primary surplus. And …. a 20yr+ grace period on all interest payments, starting immediately. …. This is the opening position, before the IMF loan default and the referendum; even if the Greeks lose on Sunday, the final numbers will probably be materially higher. If the Greeks win, and are enticed to stay in the Eurozone; the final numbers will be higher still. The IMF gets their eurozone supported loan repaid in full, or they are out March 2016. One has to think the rest of the euro-zone will also be under similar terms. … Seems to us that the only adults in the room are the Greeks and the IMF. Stay in the circus tent, or step back to your own currency. Safer for everyone if they stay in the Eurozone, but this extend and pretend shite is over. Good on the Greeks, and the IMF, to have the courage to call the game. Play time is over. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorrofan Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 You're making it sound like "poor man" Greece did everyone a huge favor by joining the EU. In reality, it is more the Greeks' obfuscating and contorting their own financials (read: they lied) until their government could enjoy the same 5% interest rate awarded to the Germans. Michael Lewis's 2010 piece, "Beware of of Greeks Bearing Bonds", is a good refresher on the topic: http://t.co/UilFyeMDWv The Greek population elected their government, and they can change it any time as well. They haven’t changed it, because it IS doing what it was elected to do – change things for the better. Negotiators don’t have to see eye to eye; there are no ‘rules’. Your banker, extending you a mortgage, expects you to be humble and grateful for his/her doing you a favour. It’s a very short conversation, when you remind him/her that he/she is just a SALESPERSON in a better cut suit, and just one of many, offering the commodity product of money. F’ing ingrats! …. The very smooth powerful and the prestigious lead privileged lives, and get what they want by undermining their opposition through the opportune leak, poisoned whisper, etc. The rough and ready get in your face, and piss all over your rug; what is missed is that they are both extremely good at what they do. If there was no drama – the Greeks wouldn’t be very Greek …. and the world would be a far poorer place for it. The creators of the Eurozone are getting their noses rubbed in its structural unsoundness, and the Greeks are just calling the bluff. If there really is the Eurozone as claimed, the ECB will backstop the run on the Greek banking system and the IMF loan will be extended. If the ECB does not step up …. it’s just a rich man’s club – with different rules for the rich and the poor. If you’re one of the poor men in this, and getting beaten up daily.. why would you not just step away, take your currency and fiscal policy back, and start doing things for yourself again. Exactly as you used to do before the Eurozone existed. SD Are the Greeks blameless? God no, but on the other hand neither are the Germans and the rest of the EU....time for everyone to realize the past is the past and deal with the problem at hand. Finger pointing will resolve nothing....... cheers Zorro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Are the Greeks blameless? God no, but on the other hand neither are the Germans and the rest of the EU....time for everyone to realize the past is the past and deal with the problem at hand. Finger pointing will resolve nothing....... cheers Zorro Of course, but the greek problems can not be solved with money. That has not worked in the last 5 years and will not work in the next, and i seriously doubt that germany will again waste 50 billion or more in this hole, regardless of the outcome of the vote on sunday. They need a debt relief and a new start outside of the €-zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 I looked at Eurobank and the other 3 really hard since Pram Wasta made the bet but didn't invest. I care more about the contagion risk rather than what's going to happen in Greece. Does anyone know if this is going to affect other southern EU countries like Cyprus? Cyprus 2015 Q1 GDP has a strong growth while Greece was in trouble, so maybe not much contagion risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorrofan Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Are the Greeks blameless? God no, but on the other hand neither are the Germans and the rest of the EU....time for everyone to realize the past is the past and deal with the problem at hand. Finger pointing will resolve nothing....... cheers Zorro Of course, but the greek problems can not be solved with money. That has not worked in the last 5 years and will not work in the next, and i seriously doubt that germany will again waste 50 billion or more in this hole, regardless of the outcome of the vote on sunday. They need a debt relief and a new start outside of the €-zone. Debt relief and reform....but does this process turn into a black swan type event? Poll results are too close to call..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Debt relief and reform....but does this process turn into a black swan type event? Poll results are too close to call..... Why should it? This is business as usual around the world in the last 100 years. In the short term the greek population will suffer, but only to gain in the long run. May be the referendum is a catalyst for a market correction, but who wouldn`t welcome that? Sorry for derailing this thread, but it looks like the equity of Eurobank is toast regardless of what happens on sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 The reality is that Europe really needs a Marshall Plan, and they have to do it themselves. Write off all euro nations’ debt to around the 70% of GNP level, dissolve the existing euro structure, and replace it with a much more robust version (& more exclusive membership) that actually works. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Plan SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 The reality is that Europe really needs a Marshall Plan, and they have to do themselves. Write off all euro nations’ debt to around the 70% of GNP level, dissolve the existing euro structure, and replace it with a much more robust version (& more exclusive membership) that actually works. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Plan SD You can`t write off the debt in all european nations, that means taking money/life-savings from the people. Do you think the government that wants to do that gets votes? For a marshall plan to work, you have to have something to invest in. In germany there may be some infrastructure projects that can be financed, but in other nations like spain or greece there was a big infrastructure/building boom from 2002->2007. I would go so far and say this has partially created the problems, because it was financed with cheap €-debt and it was more than was needed. They should have introduced €-bonds from the start, but there is no political will to create a true fiscal union in europe (and the population is against it in most nations, too). I can`t really see how the whole €-project can realistically get to a happy ending, from my point of view the currency will be gone twenty years from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 The practical approach would be to simply extend an interest and principal payment moratorium over all the excess debt for 99+ years. All living generations benefit from the current debt relief, and the future unborn generation (net of 99+ years) of inflation takes on a liability worth almost nothing. No actual write-off, but most of the benefits of one. The total ‘extend and pretend’ write-off could quite easily top 3-4 trillion, and run to the equivalent of 2-3 simultaneous marshal plans (net of inflation growth since the 1940’s). Remove the debt service on this amount of money, and you free up huge amounts of already existing sovereign cash flow – annually. The funds for re-investment. Individual and corporate savings are untouched, but would benefit from the increased economic activity. The nations themselves would simply invest in wherever they saw the most bang for the buck; it could be MUSH (municipality, university, social, hospital) spend and not just infrastructure . If a nation chose to leave the Eurozone it would see even more benefit - as it would be able to set fiscal and monetary policies appropriate to its specific needs. If you are a Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, or Spain – this has to be high on the list. Same thing if you are a Germany or France. The €-project resembles software in many ways– ie: version 1.0, 2.0, 3.0 etc. It would seem pretty clear that version 1.0 is close to done; if the €-project really is as beneficial as claimed, there will be a version 2.0. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Txvestor Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 The reality is that Europe really needs a Marshall Plan, and they have to do themselves. Write off all euro nations’ debt to around the 70% of GNP level, dissolve the existing euro structure, and replace it with a much more robust version (& more exclusive membership) that actually works. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Plan SD You are demanding this of a country(s) that apparently do not necessarily feel a sense of kinship with their southern neighbors, as for instance west germany felt for the east. What's worse the cultural/political/ideological differences are so vast that it would be nigh impossible to bridge the divide, and without bridging that divide the current impasse even if corrected with a huge debt write-down as you suggest is certain to happen again in due course. There quite simply are structural differences which without correcting doom the euro project as currently designed. In a sense i think a better design for the euro might have been one which envisaged a strong core with other nations entering and leaving as per pre set criteria. That would have made for a more responsible periphery and a more orderly entry and exit process. It seems to me that Northern europe is aware of this and making their choices accordingly. I am in complete agreement with you that Greece should get a debt writedown, but I am also of the opinion that it should NOT HAPPEN without implementation of the needed reforms, and it really should not matter what the publics view on it is, if they demand to stay in the euro club. Their collective democratic choice should only be to leave if they wish. Despite the left wing rhetoric coming from Tsipras and Varoufakis et al.(latest being an accusation of terrorism by the finance minister lol). They have already demonstrated themselves incapable of running their ship by steering themselves into a debt hole out of which they acknowledge that they can't climb out. How can anyone do that without a consequence and expect the status quo to prevail. It is delusional to say the least. In a sense I suppose that is the choice in front of them tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Neither side is blameless. Comes Monday there will be new terms on the table. Comes mid to late week there may well be the appearance of Drachma. Comes the end of summer there is a very good chance they will be haggling over a divorce settlement - while their economy runs on Drachma. They don't have to reform, they could simply step away with a big settlement. Interesting few weeks coming up SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Txvestor Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Neither side is blameless. Comes Monday there will be new terms on the table. Comes mid to late week there may well be the appearance of Drachma. Comes the end of summer there is a very good chance they will haggling over the divorce settlement - while their economy runs on Drachma. They don't have to reform, they could simply step away with a big settlement. Interesting few weeks coming up SD I agree, if Greeks vote NO, then i think you would be right. That is the direction they voted earlier this year by putting Syriza in power, and they are effectively being asked a second time, are you sure? I do not believe their future under a Syriza regime would look good. Certainly most free capital will think twice as hard before entering, especially given the experience of the most recent investors, and I don't see them with significant natural resources with which to build a welfare economy. A no vote will likely require a de facto nationalization of the banking sector, and EGFEY would be worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 The practical approach would be to simply extend an interest and principal payment moratorium over all the excess debt for 99+ years. All living generations benefit from the current debt relief, and the future unborn generation (net of 99+ years) of inflation takes on a liability worth almost nothing. No actual write-off, but most of the benefits of one. You can be sure that the bond market will mark the bonds down in case this happens and the bond will be worth less than before. How is that not taking money away from the holders of the bonds? A no vote will likely require a de facto nationalization of the banking sector, and EGFEY would be worthless. Even with a yes vote the banks need money, so there will be either heavy dilution or nationalization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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