awindenberger Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 I don't like SOTP here because Masa is borrowing at something like 2% to buy assets compounding 20-30%. You can say it trades for some 30% discount to a fully-taxed NAV but NAV could easily jump 20-30% next year and so what if it trades at that NAV? You can't just sell it because it might continue to compound some crazy NAV. So if it works out you'll always be thinking you have some fully valued stock even though it might be earning $20 billion of underlying earnings in several years. The underlying earnings are constantly being reinvested in all kinds of crazy situations (like S or BABA purchases or some $100 billion hedge fund) making it too hard to keep calculating a SOTP. Plus I think there is some chance that BABA blows up Why else would they sell any of their position? It always seemed so against them to part with any of it. The Arora situation was simply bizarre (I guess he spearheaded the effort to sell down that stake as well as Supercell?). I'd rather just figure out what the underlying earnings are behind all the business segments, throw some 10x multiple as "normal" and assume it will always be a 10x business because he'll be levered up his eyeballs until the end of time. Then it's just a matter of looking at how earnings will grow and that's a hard question to answer... I'd probably still own shares if I hadn't found something more to my liking. It's very interesting going through your thinking here Picasso. On one hand you see the 20-30% long term compounding going on, but then on the other you see the potential for an Alibaba blowup. I guess maybe when FELP finishes playing out you'll need a new investment again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abyli Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 I don't like SOTP here because Masa is borrowing at something like 2% to buy assets compounding 20-30%. You can say it trades for some 30% discount to a fully-taxed NAV but NAV could easily jump 20-30% next year and so what if it trades at that NAV? You can't just sell it because it might continue to compound some crazy NAV. So if it works out you'll always be thinking you have some fully valued stock even though it might be earning $20 billion of underlying earnings in several years. The underlying earnings are constantly being reinvested in all kinds of crazy situations (like S or BABA purchases or some $100 billion hedge fund) making it too hard to keep calculating a SOTP. Plus I think there is some chance that BABA blows up Why else would they sell any of their position? It always seemed so against them to part with any of it. The Arora situation was simply bizarre (I guess he spearheaded the effort to sell down that stake as well as Supercell?). I'd rather just figure out what the underlying earnings are behind all the business segments, throw some 10x multiple as "normal" and assume it will always be a 10x business because he'll be levered up his eyeballs until the end of time. Then it's just a matter of looking at how earnings will grow and that's a hard question to answer... I'd probably still own shares if I hadn't found something more to my liking. I am curious to know why you think BABA might blow up. Can you explain a little bit more? Are you Chinese? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villainx Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I wonder if BABA was sold as a favor to Jack Ma or Alibaba. Just not to constantly have it being owned by other entities. Which might also lessen Alibaba doing structural maneuvers to get out of those entities (SoftBank and Yahoo). I can see why SoftBank sold just to get liquidity or lock in gains, but yeah, it seems out of character. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Half their debt is in Sprint. Therefore, if Masa Son is successful in engineering a merger of Sprint with T-Mobile, their debt could be practically cut in half. From a Net Debt EBITDA Multiple of 4.4 to a Multiple of 2.2, which I think should be easily manageable. Am I wrong? Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 You could be right but I don't think that you are asking yourself the most important question. Sure, if everything goes according to the latest rumors Softbank will be fine. But what are the chances of that happening? And what happens if something goes wrong along the way? According to Masa, if I am broke and borrow a million to invest in the Nasdaq I am debt-free: my stock portfolio cancels out my debt. What he conveniently doesn't mention is that I would be leveraged to the hilt: if Google reports a bad quarter I am bankrupt. I look at the latest Softbank quarterly and I see ~14t in tangible assets, ~22t in liabilities and ~3t in equity. Mike Pearson would be proud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 According to Masa, if I am broke and borrow a million to invest in the Nasdaq I am debt-free: my stock portfolio cancels out my debt. What he conveniently doesn't mention is that I would be leveraged to the hilt: if Google reports a bad quarter I am bankrupt. In your case the SOTP would be zero: Stocks worth $1 million - $1 million of debt = $0. In the SOTP made by Delani Investors, instead, we have: Value of operating businesses - debt = $74 per share (already > $0) + value of investment assets = $152. Interests on Softbank's debt are serviced by the EBIT of their operating businesses, and on top of that there is the value of their stocks portfolio. What's wrong with that? When I ask for a loan, my bank looks at my income and on top of that at two other things: the value of my real estate and the value of my stocks portfolio. Mike Pearson would be proud. I see at least two differences: 1) SoftBank has made nearly $6 billion of earnings in 2016, and is selling at a reasonable 14x multiple: VRX had almost no GAAP earnings. 2) Masa Son has a much longer track record than Pearson and has already survived a terrible crash when the dotcom bubble burst. Anyway, I agree: SoftBank is a risky investment and therefore it remains a small percentage of my equity investments. If everything goes according to what Masa Son is planning and saying, it will add to my returns meaningfully. If things go wrong instead, I am not risking much. Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccplz Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 According to Masa, if I am broke and borrow a million to invest in the Nasdaq I am debt-free: my stock portfolio cancels out my debt. What he conveniently doesn't mention is that I would be leveraged to the hilt: if Google reports a bad quarter I am bankrupt. In your case the SOTP would be zero: Stocks worth $1 million - $1 million of debt = $0. In the SOTP made by Delani Investors, instead, we have: Value of operating businesses - debt = $74 per share (already > $0) + value of investment assets = $152. Interests on Softbank's debt are serviced by the EBIT of their operating businesses, and on top of that there is the value of their stocks portfolio. What's wrong with that? When I ask for a loan, my bank looks at my income and on top of that at two other things: the value of my real estate and the value of my stocks portfolio. Mike Pearson would be proud. I see at least two differences: 1) SoftBank has made nearly $6 billion of earnings in 2016, and is selling at a reasonable 14x multiple: VRX had almost no GAAP earnings. 2) Masa Son has a much longer track record than Pearson and has already survived a terrible crash when the dotcom bubble burst. Anyway, I agree: SoftBank is a risky investment and therefore it remains a small percentage of my equity investments. If everything goes according to what Masa Son is planning and saying, it will add to my returns meaningfully. If things go wrong instead, I am not risking much. Cheers, Gio Weren't you a huge fan of Mike at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Weren't you a huge fan of Mike at some point I was and I was wrong. We all learn from our mistakes. And I don't think my investment in Softbank contradicts the four basic lessons I have learnt from the VRX experience: 1) It is very difficult to judge a business that grows revenue through acquisitions using debt. Of course, I am not against acquisitions: I still think an operator who is both a good entrepreneur and a good investor is preferable to one who is only either a good entrepreneur or a good investor. And I still think a business that can grow both organically and through acquisitions is preferable to a business that grows only organically. Yet, a business must show solid and growing net earnings to reinvest in acquisitions. As I have said, Masa Son already has nearly $6 billion of net earnings that he must park somewhere each year, and now that Sprint is becoming FCF positive those net earnings will probably increase. Therefore, I don't think my investment in Softbank contradicts lesson n.1. 2) Valuation must be fair on a GAAP basis. Prices that seem fair only when compared to non-GAAP metrics, while looking astronomical on a GAAP basis, are fraught with dangers. The price of Softbank stock today goes from fairly valued, if you just put a multiple on the earnings of its operating businesses, to clearly undervalued, if you use a SOTP analysis considering the value of its investment assets too. Therefore, I don't think my investment in SoftBank contradicts lesson n.2. 3) A manager should be proven in both good times and bad times. He/She must have a long enough track record to have successfully survived tough times. Masa Son is at the helm of SoftBank since the mid '90s, has survived both the dotcom bubble burst (life threatening for a tech company) and the financial crisis of '08. Therefore, I don't think my investment in SoftBank contradicts lesson n.3. 4) The proverbial "fat pitch" is very rare: generally, don't invest too much in any single company, but keep a reasonably diversified portfolio of stocks. Our good friend ScottHall, and one of the best investor I know, was invested in VRX at the same time I was... If I remember correctly... Nonetheless his stock portfolio returned 20%+ in 2015! He wisely chose to hold a reasonably diversified portfolio of stocks. As I have said, SoftBank is a small percentage of my portfolio: enough to give an interesting boost to my future returns, if everything goes according to Masa Son's plans, while still not risking much, if something goes wrong instead. Therefore, I don't think my investment in SoftBank contradicts lesson n.4. Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottHall Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Weren't you a huge fan of Mike at some point I was and I was wrong. We all learn from our mistakes. And I don't think my investment in Softbank contradicts the four basic lessons I have learnt from the VRX experience: 1) It is very difficult to judge a business that grows revenue through acquisitions using debt. Of course, I am not against acquisitions: I still think an operator who is both a good entrepreneur and a good investor is preferable to one who is only either a good entrepreneur or a good investor. And I still think a business that can grow both organically and through acquisitions is preferable to a business that grows only organically. Yet, a business must show solid and growing net earnings to reinvest in acquisitions. As I have said, Masa Son already has nearly $6 billion of net earnings that he must park somewhere each year, and now that Sprint is becoming FCF positive those net earnings will probably increase. Therefore, I don't think my investment in Softbank contradicts lesson n.1. 2) Valuation must be fair on a GAAP basis. Prices that seem fair only when compared to non-GAAP metrics, while looking astronomical on a GAAP basis, are fraught with dangers. The price of Softbank stock today goes from fairly valued, if you just put a multiple on the earnings of its operating businesses, to clearly undervalued, if you use a SOTP analysis considering the value of its investment assets too. Therefore, I don't think my investment in SoftBank contradicts lesson n.2. 3) A manager should be proven in both good times and bad times. He/She must have a long enough track record to have successfully survived tough times. Masa Son is at the helm of SoftBank since the mid '90s, has survived both the dotcom bubble burst (life threatening for a tech company) and the financial crisis of '08. Therefore, I don't think my investment in SoftBank contradicts lesson n.3. 4) The proverbial "fat pitch" is very rare: generally, don't invest too much in any single company, but keep a reasonably diversified portfolio of stocks. Our good friend ScottHall, and one of the best investor I know, was invested in VRX at the same time I was... If I remember correctly... Nonetheless his stock portfolio returned 20%+ in 2015! He wisely chose to hold a reasonably diversified portfolio of stocks. As I have said, SoftBank is a small percentage of my portfolio: enough to give an interesting boost to my future returns, if everything goes according to Masa Son's plans, while still not risking much, if something goes wrong instead. Therefore, I don't think my investment in SoftBank contradicts lesson n.4. Cheers, Gio Ccplz is just being an asshole, Gio. I for one appreciate your contribution to the forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CONeal Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Acquired Boston Dynamics https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2017/06/09/remember-that-terrifying-robot-cheetah-its-getting-a-new-owner/?utm_term=.b5ad1c2f0fc4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Chris Lane thinks investors haven’t quite gotten their heads around what Masayoshi Son is trying to do at SoftBank Group Corp. The Sanford C. Bernstein analyst just initiated coverage of the Japanese company with an “outperform” rating and a forecast that shares could rally 36 percent over the next year. Investors still see SoftBank as primarily a telecommunications company, he says, even though its core business is investing in technology. There are similarities to Berkshire Hathaway Inc., the U.S. company led by Warren Buffett, he explains. While Berkshire uses cash from its insurance business to invest in railroads, ice cream shops and Coca-Cola, SoftBank taps cash from its telecoms operations to back startups in ride-hailing, artificial intelligence, e-commerce and robots. Yet SoftBank trades at a discount of more than 40 percent to the assets it owns, while Berkshire has little or no such markdown. “The discount is ridiculous,” Lane said in an interview after his report was published. “What’s unusual about SoftBank is that there’s a 40 percent discount across the group.” Conglomerates tend to trade at lower values than their individual assets, but SoftBank’s is particularly deep. Lane contends that businesses it controls completely, like the Japanese telecom operations, shouldn’t be valued lower than their market value. He estimates the sum of SoftBank’s parts have an enterprise value of 31.7 trillion yen ($280 billion), or 18.3 trillion yen after subtracting debt. Its market cap is about 11 trillion yen. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-20/softbank-seen-climbing-36-percent-as-son-clarifies-tech-vision Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 People seriously investing in Softbank should probably understand Vision fund and leverage. http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=31318261 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 People seriously investing in Softbank should probably understand Vision fund and leverage. http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=31318261 Thank you for posting this! Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ajc Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-20/softbank-seen-climbing-36-percent-as-son-clarifies-tech-vision https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sa2_VBu0d7k&t=1035s At around 17 minutes in, I think Son is saying ARM has a ton of pricing power and he intends to use it. He might be talking about scaling up sales via the IOT, but it doesn't sound like it. Makes sense to me given the royalty costs versus the importance of the chip. If the price increases along with scaling do happen, the returns could be very impressive. He argues ARM alone could have Alphabet's market cap. Otherwise, I agree SFTBY is substantially undervalued. Also, I think their stakes in OYO Rooms, Grab, and Didi are underappreciated. I have Softbank owning 42%, 55%, and 17% respectively. That's just the company and doesn't include any Vision Fund stakes. The Didi stake alone could be worth well over $20B at the IPO. Softbank also owns between 30% and 40% of Ola. That might be worth a similar amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Inside the Eccentric, Relentless Deal-Making of Masayoshi Son The Japanese billionaire has changed the startup game with his aggressive investing and enormous checkbook. Does he know what he’s doing? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-01-02/inside-the-eccentric-unstoppable-deal-making-of-masayoshi-son Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aalexa1225 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Gio, care the share you most up to date analysis of the SOTP value? AOA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Gio, care the share you most up to date analysis of the SOTP value? AOA From the article recently posted: Lane sees clear evidence of that disbelief: SoftBank’s stock in Alibaba and other assets are worth more than 19 trillion yen after subtracting all its debt, but SoftBank’s market cap is only 9.8 trillion yen. SoftBank is only one position in a diversified portfolio for me. And it is a bet on the sharing economy and the IoT. If both will become huge, SoftBank should benefit. Otherwise, I don’t expect much. Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccplz Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-30/softbank-invests-300-million-into-dog-walking-startup-wag What a legend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-30/softbank-invests-300-million-into-dog-walking-startup-wag What a legend I'm confused by this one too, but I don't own a dog. --- On another note: "Then there was the time in 2001, when Mr. Son threatened to set himself on fire in the offices of the ministry unless an official prodded telecom giant Nippon Telegraph & Telephone to lease optical-fiber lines to SoftBank, for a broadband network it was building." https://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2013/12/14/why-regulators-dont-scare-softbanks-masayoshi-son/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ajc Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 So far, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and ex-FCC Chief of Staff Adonis Hoffman, seem to think the TMUS/S merger is good on balance and should happen. Who knows how good CNBC's Charlie Gasparino's contacts are, but he's spoken to people in the DOJ anti-trust division, and they say the merger would be fine with conditions attached (presumably pricing and job protections). It also sounds like the 5G consumer pitch, as well as the need for the US to be competitive globally, is a good one. There's reason to think the new T-Mobile will continue lowering prices and adding new jobs, so my guess is they'd agree to have those specifications included as conditions for a number of years, as they build out the 5G network. I'm biased, but right now there seems to be a reasonable chance this goes through. It'd almost definitely be a great thing for Softbank stock to get that debt off their books. Also, the Japanese mobile unit spin-off, scheduled for this year, seems like another noteable positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-30/softbank-invests-300-million-into-dog-walking-startup-wag What a legend I'm confused by this one too, but I don't own a dog. --- On another note: "Then there was the time in 2001, when Mr. Son threatened to set himself on fire in the offices of the ministry unless an official prodded telecom giant Nippon Telegraph & Telephone to lease optical-fiber lines to SoftBank, for a broadband network it was building." https://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2013/12/14/why-regulators-dont-scare-softbanks-masayoshi-son/ You never own a dog, the dog owns you. Most humans just haven’t it figured out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-30/softbank-invests-300-million-into-dog-walking-startup-wag What a legend I'm confused by this one too, but I don't own a dog. --- On another note: "Then there was the time in 2001, when Mr. Son threatened to set himself on fire in the offices of the ministry unless an official prodded telecom giant Nippon Telegraph & Telephone to lease optical-fiber lines to SoftBank, for a broadband network it was building." https://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2013/12/14/why-regulators-dont-scare-softbanks-masayoshi-son/ You never own a dog, the dog owns you. Most humans just haven’t it figured out yet. I thought this was only true with cats. 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-30/softbank-invests-300-million-into-dog-walking-startup-wag What a legend I'm confused by this one too, but I don't own a dog. --- On another note: "Then there was the time in 2001, when Mr. Son threatened to set himself on fire in the offices of the ministry unless an official prodded telecom giant Nippon Telegraph & Telephone to lease optical-fiber lines to SoftBank, for a broadband network it was building." https://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2013/12/14/why-regulators-dont-scare-softbanks-masayoshi-son/ You never own a dog, the dog owns you. Most humans just haven’t it figured out yet. I thought this was only true with cats. 8) and women :) (title to me is still free & clear but that may change soon.) Dogs are just along for the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ajc Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 Seems like their Japanese mobile business might file for its IPO next month. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/SoftBank-mobile-unit-to-file-for-IPO-as-soon-as-July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tol1 Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 Great re-rating in the past month. I still struggle to comprehend Tiger's valuation of Vision at 2.5x return though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now