Space X

[Ice77]

I don’t see it that way at all. I see it as one would underwrite insurance for a possible event. Getting paid 5% premium for a 2% probability event if done with regularity is not a bad deal. We are talking of one of the only companies apart from SpaceX to have a successful launch vehicle. It’s a conditional probability event just like betting on a successful entrepreneur’s second startup. The odds of success are different than if he were on his first one.

 

That it requires lots of capital and is very difficult to do can be an evolving moat of sorts. Even Astra which is led by ex CTO of NASA and ex SpaceX engineers has failed to reach orbit. It is not easy so I’m not going to summarily dismiss someone like RocketLabs who has done it and done it many times.

[ValueArb]

I don’t see it that way at all. I see it as one would underwrite insurance for a possible event. Getting paid 5% premium for a 2% probability event if done with regularity is not a bad deal. We are talking of one of the only companies apart from SpaceX to have a successful launch vehicle. It’s a conditional probability event just like betting on a successful entrepreneur’s second startup. The odds of success are different than if he were on his first one.

 

That it requires lots of capital and is very difficult to do can be an evolving moat of sorts. Even Astra which is led by ex CTO of NASA and ex SpaceX engineers has failed to reach orbit. It is not easy so I’m not going to summarily dismiss someone like RocketLabs who has done it and done it many times.

 

Putting payloads into space quite an accomplishment. But to actually make money doing it, is a far far more difficult accomplishment. With their current platform they can't beat SpaceX ride-share on price, but they can offer delivery to custom orbits that SpaceX ride-share can't reach. So I can see a small business for them.

 

But Neutron is going up against Falcon 9 directly. SpaceX may still charge $50M+ per launch, but their costs for a reusable launch of roughly 15 tons are certainly in the $20M range now. If Starship is developed successfully their costs of putting 100 tons into orbit likely drop to $10M or so. How is Neutron going to compete with either?

 

This isn't an X Prize. Its a business, getting to orbit is just table stakes for the game.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Custom orbits seems like a good edge to have for this co as ride-sharing doesn't optimize the orbit. This company seems more focused on getting satellites up, they even have a platform to develop satellites, sell them to the customer, and launch them for them (Photon). Neutron seems like it will move the game to constellations. Unlike SpaceX, they seem to be more of a "do more with less" type of culture which I think can keep costs low and competitive. Looking at total amount of capital they've raised thus far and all that they've accomplished, I think the results speak loudly.

 

Ignoring SpaceX for a moment, I can't understand why SPCE would have a market cap of twice this thing. I think the accomplishments of this company are far beyond Virgin Galactic. And they have customers and revenue today...

 

Overall it's probably one of the most attractive SPACs I've seen (I do not think highly of SPACs)...at this price and EV of just $4.1B, it could easily be a target for a big firm or some egomaniac billionaire (there are plenty) looking for a platform to get into orbit quickly.

 

Edit: the EV of $4.1B (market cap of $4.8B - ~750M cash) is implied by a $10 price for VACQ. Adjust accordingly.

[Ice77]

It is a prized asset. I was surprised when I heard it was going to be listed this early. VCs don’t usually share the spoils of such assets this early with the public. Even the Russians rocket scientists admire it. But people expect miracles and a fully formed business model when it’s barely the 2nd innings of the private space race. But for the DA timing amid a correction, it would be trading lot higher

[ValueArb]

Custom orbits seems like a good edge to have for this co as ride-sharing doesn't optimize the orbit. This company seems more focused on getting satellites up, they even have a platform to develop satellites, sell them to the customer, and launch them for them (Photon). Neutron seems like it will move the game to constellations. Unlike SpaceX, they seem to be more of a "do more with less" type of culture which I think can keep costs low and competitive. Looking at total amount of capital they've raised thus far and all that they've accomplished, I think the results speak loudly.

 

Ignoring SpaceX for a moment, I can't understand why SPCE would have a market cap of twice this thing. I think the accomplishments of this company are far beyond Virgin Galactic. And they have customers and revenue today...

 

Overall it's probably one of the most attractive SPACs I've seen (I do not think highly of SPACs)...at this price and EV of just $4.1B, it could easily be a target for a big firm or some egomaniac billionaire (there are plenty) looking for a platform to get into orbit quickly.

 

Edit: the EV of $4.1B (market cap of $4.8B - ~750M cash) is implied by a $10 price for VACQ. Adjust accordingly.

 

Don’t get me going on Virgin Galactic. Imagine naming your space company “Galactic” when its technology could never even achieve orbit. Oops, I got going...

[Spekulatius]

I agree that Rocket Labs looks great compared to Virgin Galactic, but that’s not a high hurdle. Rocket Labs is an interesting company to watch for sure.

[scorpioncapital]

wouldn't it be more lucrative to invest in use-case space businesses , like subscription service blacksky that gets recurring revenue instead of one time launches?