rkbabang Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Also I am not too worried about the dark ages returning. We have very advanced communication networks to prevent that, that werent present before the middle ages. Even if we run out of oil. Don't read this book: http://www.amazon.com/Global-Catastrophic-Risks-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199606501/ I haven't read that book, but in my mind the biggest risk of a major "reset" of civilization comes, not from religion this time around, but from war. If we do major environmental damage to the planet with nukes, or kill 5 billion people with biological agents ..... game over for at least another 1000 years. All the more reason to have sustainable cities on other planets before that happens here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Also I am not too worried about the dark ages returning. We have very advanced communication networks to prevent that, that werent present before the middle ages. Even if we run out of oil. Don't read this book: http://www.amazon.com/Global-Catastrophic-Risks-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199606501/ I haven't read that book, but in my mind the biggest risk of a major "reset" of civilization comes, not from religion this time around, but from war. If we do major environmental damage to the planet with nukes, or kill 5 billion people with biological agents ..... game over for at least another 1000 years. All the more reason to have sustainable cities on other planets before that happens here. That was exactly my point, though they are not mutually exclusive. Nuclear war started by religious zealots (ie. pakistan, india, iran, middle-east, etc) isn't a lot more far fetched than nuclear war started by ideologues of other kinds (ie. cold war). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Also I am not too worried about the dark ages returning. We have very advanced communication networks to prevent that, that werent present before the middle ages. Even if we run out of oil. Don't read this book: http://www.amazon.com/Global-Catastrophic-Risks-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199606501/ well thanks for the recommendation, im going to ignore your advice I think :D But isnt it easier to save information now? In the old days, if the local library burned down, you were screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 well thanks for the recommendation, im going to ignore your advice I think :D But isnt it easier to save information now? In the old days, if the local library burned down, you were screwed. Sure. But in practice, it makes very little difference to the people who go through that event, and might make little difference to people who later have to try to read a SSD with rocks and sticks... Most of our technology depends on other technologies. Take the power grid down long enough and you'll see how well the rest of the edifice stands on its own on any scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Also I am not too worried about the dark ages returning. We have very advanced communication networks to prevent that, that werent present before the middle ages. Even if we run out of oil. Don't read this book: http://www.amazon.com/Global-Catastrophic-Risks-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199606501/ well thanks for the recommendation, im going to ignore your advice I think :D But isnt it easier to save information now? In the old days, if the local library burned down, you were screwed. But in a way it was more stable, because if the library didn't burn down you weren't screwed. In our modern world, if there is a major disaster and you have no reliable source of electricity you can't access any of the information stored on disks or other media. You really are screwed. The info still exists, but you can't get access it. Also no digital storage lasts as long or is as durable as a printed book can be. Even if there are some devices left to read the information, if we can no longer build hard-drives, Flash memory, DVD's, etc, then within a generation or two all of the information stored digitally will be lost forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 But still, to live on other planets, we don't yet know how gravity affects things, there is almost no magnetic field on mars. So you would have to look outside of the solar system. And I dont think Elon musk is that important to make all that happen. You would need a lot of big break throughs in various scientific fields to make inter solar system travel possible. Just improving the rockets won't cut it. You would need to build a huge space ship that could sustain generations in space, and then also have an effective way to terraform planets somewhat quickly. Or find planets that already have the conditions of earth. But I guess getting a lot of probes and a bit telescope outside in space would improve the odds of finding one of those planets closer to earth. The nearest star is 4.2 light years away. If we travel with 250k km/hour (which would be extremely fast already), it woudl take about 16000 years to get there. So You would need faster then light technology. 9.4 trillion km x 4.2 / 250k/24/365= ~16k correct? But in a way it was more stable, because if the library didn't burn down you weren't screwed. In our modern world, if there is a major disaster and you have no reliable source of electricity you can't access any of the information stored on disks or other media. You really are screwed. The info still exists, but you can't get access it. Also no digital storage lasts as long or is as durable as a printed book can be. Even if there are some devices left to read the information, if we can no longer build hard-drives, Flash memory, DVD's, etc, then within a generation or two all of the information stored digitally will be lost forever. You have to 1. assume all computers and sources of power are destroyed. There isn't a single computer with a diesel generator working somewhere? All it takes is a few usb sticks to store all info. And 2. assume that everyone with expertise is killed off everywhere. If that is true, then losing technology would be the least of your worries. If like 500 million people would survive, some computers and some sources of power generation and also some smart people would survive. and also 3. Assume nobody of all the billions of people think of this and print out important information and store it somewhere safe. ALlthough you might get groups that are against tech because of what happened. And religion would probably grow like weed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 But still, to live on other planets, we don't yet know how gravity affects things, there is almost no magnetic field on mars. So you would have to look outside of the solar system. And I dont think Elon musk is that important to make all that happen. You would need a lot of big break throughs in various scientific fields to make inter solar system travel possible. Just improving the rockets won't cut it. You would need to build a huge space ship that could sustain generations in space, and then also have an effective way to terraform planets somewhat quickly. Or find planets that already have the conditions of earth. But I guess getting a lot of probes and a bit telescope outside in space would improve the odds of finding one of those planets closer to earth. The nearest star is 4.2 light years away. If we travel with 250k km/hour (which would be extremely fast already), it woudl take about 16000 years to get there. So You would need faster then light technology. 9.4 trillion km x 4.2 / 250k/24/365= ~16k correct? Can you imagine how impossible almost all the technologies we use daily sound if you describe them like that? I dare you to look into how a GPS works, with Einsteinian physics and all, not to even mention all the other technologies on which a functional GPS system depends (CPUs, satellites, radio waves, etc) and all the fields of science you need to master to even contemplate creating those (quantum physics, complex material sciences, advanced mathematics, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 But still, to live on other planets, we don't yet know how gravity affects things, there is almost no magnetic field on mars. So you would have to look outside of the solar system. And I dont think Elon musk is that important to make all that happen. You would need a lot of big break throughs in various scientific fields to make inter solar system travel possible. Just improving the rockets won't cut it. You would need to build a huge space ship that could sustain generations in space, and then also have an effective way to terraform planets somewhat quickly. Or find planets that already have the conditions of earth. But I guess getting a lot of probes and a bit telescope outside in space would improve the odds of finding one of those planets closer to earth. The nearest star is 4.2 light years away. If we travel with 250k km/hour (which would be extremely fast already), it woudl take about 16000 years to get there. So You would need faster then light technology. 9.4 trillion km x 4.2 / 250k/24/365= ~16k correct? Can you imagine how impossible almost all the technologies we use daily sound if you describe them like that? I dare you to look into how a GPS works, with Einsteinian physics and all, not to even mention all the other technologies on which a functional GPS system depends (CPUs, satellites, radio waves, etc) and all the fields of science you need to master to even contemplate creating those (quantum physics, complex material sciences, advanced mathematics, etc). yes but I am not arguing that it will never happen. I am just arguing that Elon musk wont have a large effect on it. But likely some genius einstein like physicist who comes up with a new interesting viewpoint on the laws of physics that would make these things possible. And if that happens we won't need extremely efficient rockets, and look back on them like we look back on steam engines now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 yes but I am not arguing that it will never happen. I am just arguing that Elon musk wont have a large effect on it. He's already had a huge effect on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcliu Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 yes but I am not arguing that it will never happen. I am just arguing that Elon musk wont have a large effect on it. That's somewhat like saying Alexander Graham Bell didn't have a large effect on the internet. True, but someone's gotta lay the foundation or light the spark for further development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 yes but I am not arguing that it will never happen. I am just arguing that Elon musk wont have a large effect on it. That's somewhat like saying Alexander Graham Bell didn't have a large effect on the internet. True, but someone's gotta lay the foundation or light the spark for further development. Not comparable. Bell invented a entirely new technology. Musk didnt, he just made the current tech better. But current tech is worthless if we want to travel across solar systems. We would need break throughs in physics and not just engineering.. To colonize mars we would need breakthroughs in terraforming, in building very large and sustainable spacecrafts (and the problems with oxygen etc that brings), how to protect from radiation mars and in medical knowledge how to bypass effects of much lower gravity on human body. All things Musk likely wont provide. Again I think Musk is extremely awesome, but people are overhyping this all a lot. Still curious about the things he will do though. He has suprised people before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 yes but I am not arguing that it will never happen. I am just arguing that Elon musk wont have a large effect on it. That's somewhat like saying Alexander Graham Bell didn't have a large effect on the internet. True, but someone's gotta lay the foundation or light the spark for further development. Not comparable. Bell invented a entirely new technology. Musk didnt, he just made the current tech better. But current tech is worthless if we want to travel across solar systems. We would need break throughs in physics and not just engineering.. To colonize mars we would need breakthroughs in terraforming, in building very large and sustainable spacecrafts (and the problems with oxygen etc that brings), how to protect from radiation mars and in medical knowledge how to bypass effects of much lower gravity on human body. All things Musk likely wont provide. Again I think Musk is extremely awesome, but people are overhyping this all a lot. Still curious about the things he will do though. He has suprised people before. So basically, your point applies to every single entrepreneur, inventor, and scientist ever. What value does that point have exactly? Who here is overhyping Musk? Nobody here said that he would do everything by himself or claim that he's doing things he isn't. What he did do, what he's doing now, and what he plans to do, is quite enough to be worth the hype -- in fact, he probably deserves more credit than he's getting but most people don't realize how hard the stuff he's doing is on so many levels... across 3 industries at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Well the discussion started out on me asking how musk will make life on more planets then earth possible. I dont think he will do that because you will need a LOT more then just reusable rockets to do that. What will probably happen, we go over there, find out Mars is barely more interesting then the moon, and it will all come grind to a halt. But at least satellites are now a lot cheaper. Untill other fields of science experience break throughs, then we will have sustainable colony's on other planets. I compare him more to davinci. The guy came up with the principle of a helicopter, except the technology to propel it forward wasnt available yet. Was Davinci crucial for the invention of flight? No. Was he awesome and a genius? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Well the discussion started out on me asking how musk will make life on more planets then earth possible. I dont think he will do that because you will need a LOT more then just reusable rockets to do that. What will probably happen, we go over there, find out Mars is barely more interesting then the moon, and it will all come grind to a halt. But at least satellites are now a lot cheaper. Untill other fields of science experience break throughs, then we will have sustainable colony's on other planets. I compare him more to davinci. The guy came up with the principle of a helicopter, except the technology to propel it forward wasnt available yet. Was Davinci crucial for the invention of flight? No. Was he awesome and a genius? Yes. No so long ago, the US was losing access to space and had fewer capability than in the 1960s, and costs were ballooning up. The shuttle was out, the replacement might come in years if not decades, and even basic rockets had to have engines made in Russia. Musk comes around, and in a few years, he goes from nothing to potentially having fully reuseable rockets that land vertically on land with costs that are orders of magnitude lower than anything before. That's a necessary, if not sufficient, thing for anything else that follows. He puts the goal of Mars back on a real schedule (not the BS that politicians talk about), and he puts ambition back on the table too (not sending a man there to take a few selfies and come back, but he wants a base there -- which btw isn't all the terraforming stuff you keep talking about). He's likely totally changing the course of space exploration history with his company, and I don't see anyone doing what SpaceX is doing, so if they didn't exist.... It doesn't mean that he'll solve all the problems himself - and nobody but you has been saying that - but he's making a huge difference (likewise in electric cars and solar, btw). DaVinci? That makes no sense to me. In any case, this is enough for me on this topic. I encourage you to read more deeply on SpaceX than mainstream media coverage and see for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Well the discussion started out on me asking how musk will make life on more planets then earth possible. I dont think he will do that because you will need a LOT more then just reusable rockets to do that. What will probably happen, we go over there, find out Mars is barely more interesting then the moon, and it will all come grind to a halt. But at least satellites are now a lot cheaper. Untill other fields of science experience break throughs, then we will have sustainable colony's on other planets. I compare him more to davinci. The guy came up with the principle of a helicopter, except the technology to propel it forward wasnt available yet. Was Davinci crucial for the invention of flight? No. Was he awesome and a genius? Yes. No so long ago, the US was losing access to space and had fewer capability than in the 1960s, and costs were ballooning up. The shuttle was out, the replacement might come in years if not decades, and even basic rockets had to have engines made in Russia. Musk comes around, and in a few years, he goes from nothing to potentially having fully reuseable rockets that land vertically on land with costs that are orders of magnitude lower than anything before. That's a necessary, if not sufficient, thing for anything else that follows. He puts the goal of Mars back on a real schedule (not the BS that politicians talk about), and he puts ambition back on the table too (not sending a man there to take a few selfies and come back, but he wants a base there -- which btw isn't all the terraforming stuff you keep talking about). He's likely totally changing the course of space exploration history with his company, and I don't see anyone doing what SpaceX is doing, so if they didn't exist.... It doesn't mean that he'll solve all the problems himself - and nobody but you has been saying that - but he's making a huge difference (likewise in electric cars and solar, btw). DaVinci? That makes no sense to me. In any case, this is enough for me on this topic. I encourage you to read more deeply on SpaceX than mainstream media coverage and see for yourself. I have no doubt that he will send a rocket to mars with humans on it and bring them back. And that is an amazing feature in itself. But in order to have a base there with humans, you will have enourmous expenses to sustain that. You need to bring oxygen there. They cannot stay there for very long due to gravity issues (have to take into account the time travelling to and from mars). And the odds of getting cancer increase every second you are there due to radiation. What the hell are you going to do there? You can only have a few hours a day of exposure in sunlight. The rest is spent sitting in your small and hyper expensive colony while increasing your odds of getting cancer by a lot every day. To sustain all this will be extremely expensive, who will fund it? How do you get that money back? And we have enough room on earth. Why live on some inferior planet (to live on for humans)? What use is that. To say as a back up for nuclear war doesnt make sense. Might as well try to live in the ocean then. Probably costs the same, and at least it is closer to home. And for what? What then? If we really want sustainable life, we need to go to other planets outside our solar system and for that even the most amazing current rockets will not do. You would really need faster then light travel. And I did read more deeply on SpaceX. That is why I came to these conclusions. I mean think about it. If Musk wasnt here and some scientist would make a breakthrough and advances physics enourmously and invent alternative ways to produce a lot of energy or travel faster then light, then we can easily go to space. Without any super efficient rockets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcliu Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 yes but I am not arguing that it will never happen. I am just arguing that Elon musk wont have a large effect on it. That's somewhat like saying Alexander Graham Bell didn't have a large effect on the internet. True, but someone's gotta lay the foundation or light the spark for further development. Not comparable. Bell invented a entirely new technology. Musk didnt, he just made the current tech better. But current tech is worthless if we want to travel across solar systems. We would need break throughs in physics and not just engineering.. To colonize mars we would need breakthroughs in terraforming, in building very large and sustainable spacecrafts (and the problems with oxygen etc that brings), how to protect from radiation mars and in medical knowledge how to bypass effects of much lower gravity on human body. All things Musk likely wont provide. Again I think Musk is extremely awesome, but people are overhyping this all a lot. Still curious about the things he will do though. He has suprised people before. By that logic, Bell basically invented a better telegram. However, some would call that a breakthrough. Some would also call a cheap reusable rocket a breakthrough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftcoast Posted June 22, 2014 Share Posted June 22, 2014 Also I am not too worried about the dark ages returning. We have very advanced communication networks to prevent that, that werent present before the middle ages. Even if we run out of oil. Don't read this book: http://www.amazon.com/Global-Catastrophic-Risks-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199606501/ Great book. I liked the way it gives a balanced, scientific, and even skeptical review of each risk, rather than a sensationalist or alarmist one. I believe it was written with the insurance industry in mind, but as a videogame developer, I've found it a treasure trove of well-researched story ideas. :) My favorite chapter was the one on artificial super-intelligence and how it could pose an existential risk before we puny humans are even aware of it. And FWIW, it looks like Elon Musk is also thinking about this: Even SpaceX's Elon Musk Fears 'Terminator' Robot Apocalypse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftcoast Posted June 22, 2014 Share Posted June 22, 2014 And now I see on Amazon that the same author has written a whole new book on this specific topic, releasing this fall. Thanks Liberty! http://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199678111/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jouni1 Posted June 22, 2014 Share Posted June 22, 2014 i'm not sure there's a line to draw to separate completely new tech from making things better. one thing i'm sure about, is that a lot of smart-ass people we're shouting "not a breakthrough" at bell too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBird Posted August 5, 2014 Author Share Posted August 5, 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-04/billionaire-musk-chooses-south-texas-site-for-spacex-launchpad.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikazo Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Elon Musk’s SpaceX Is Raising Money At A Valuation Approaching $10B http://techcrunch.com/2014/08/19/spacex/?ncid=fb&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=fb&utm_content=FaceBook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBird Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 Elon compares building AI to summoning the Demon. http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/26/elon-musk-compares-building-artificial-intelligence-to-summoning-the-demon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 yes but I am not arguing that it will never happen. I am just arguing that Elon musk wont have a large effect on it. That's somewhat like saying Alexander Graham Bell didn't have a large effect on the internet. True, but someone's gotta lay the foundation or light the spark for further development. Not comparable. Bell invented a entirely new technology. Musk didnt, he just made the current tech better. But current tech is worthless if we want to travel across solar systems. We would need break throughs in physics and not just engineering.. To colonize mars we would need breakthroughs in terraforming, in building very large and sustainable spacecrafts (and the problems with oxygen etc that brings), how to protect from radiation mars and in medical knowledge how to bypass effects of much lower gravity on human body. All things Musk likely wont provide. Again I think Musk is extremely awesome, but people are overhyping this all a lot. Still curious about the things he will do though. He has suprised people before. By that logic, Bell basically invented a better telegram. However, some would call that a breakthrough. Some would also call a cheap reusable rocket a breakthrough. I think the cheap satellite angle could have some very interesting implications. Or possibly we find some materials in space that will be very useful and worth the high price. But besides that, going to mars with our current understanding of biotech and just using rockets seem kinda pointless. We are better of making deserts hospitable. I think most people who get very excited about mars have seen too much star trek. Just look at that supposed canae drive you don't hear anything from now. That thing could be a breakthrough and was not made with any kind of space budget. I don't think the middle ages and modern age are comparable. Probably most breakthroughs that allow us to explore space in the future will come from other companies and research institutes that are not involved in space travel . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 http://www.quora.com/What-is-it-like-to-work-with-Elon-Musk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Any farmers on the list? Apparently SpaceX is hiring: Farmer, Texas Basic Qualifications: Minimum of 10 years of row crop farming experience in the central Texas area which shall include a working knowledge of every process required for crop production in the region Experience in repair and preventative maintenance of John Deere agricultural equipment High school diploma or general education degree (GED) Preferred Skills and Experience: Valid Class A Commercial Driver’s License Positive relationships with suppliers and contractors in the area Texas Applicator License or sufficient requirements necessary to obtain such Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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