valueyoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Added substantially to my position today sub $35. It is now my third largest holding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAllen Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 So how is everyone comfortable with the risk here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueyoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 There is still considerable headline risk given the uncertainty regarding the Vogl Plant and global energy capex reductions, but time arbitrage should take care of this one. Otherwise, there is an increased probability of a takeover or corporate actions such as a carve out of Lummus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Does anyone remember how much this company was worth before the Shaw purchase? Was it worth only 800m? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueyoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 No, at the end of 2012, just before the Shaw acquisition, CBI had a market cap of $4.4bn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffetteer Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On Fox Business News Buffett said he will probably buy a small business in Western Europe. The odds of it being CBI are very low, but the company fits that description...fingers crossed. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 http://www.ajc.com/ap/ap/georgia/southern-co-expects-240m-in-payments-over-late-pow/nj4hj/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 http://www.ajc.com/ap/ap/georgia/southern-co-expects-240m-in-payments-over-late-pow/nj4hj/ So worst case is $240 Million split between CBI and WestingHouse, which means at most $120 Million damage to CBI? How does this affect the current cash flow from the nuclear projects? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 http://www.ajc.com/ap/ap/georgia/southern-co-expects-240m-in-payments-over-late-pow/nj4hj/ So worst case is $240 Million split between CBI and WestingHouse, which means at most $120 Million damage to CBI? How does this affect the current cash flow from the nuclear projects? IIRC, the bigger problem will be: - cash flow is dependent on hitting project milestones so cash flow is pushed back by up to 3 years (I believe CBI pays costs now and gets paid when hitting milestones) - in addition to potential penalties, CBI's costs will be significantly higher due to delayed schedule (CBI believes they can recover some of these costs but this will require litigation) Without looking at the contract and the updated project schedule, it is very difficult to determine cash flow impact. There is a risk of a cash crunch but CBI sounded confident on last call. CBI knew there were problems when they bought Shaw, so you would think that they did significant due diligence on the contracts. But sometimes managers make dumb acquisitions. This is in the very, very hard pile. If Klarman is on this board, he should be able to figure it out. The potential payoff is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
argonaut Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Where did you see Klarman on the board? I checked quickly his top ten holdings and did not see CBI there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Where did you see Klarman on the board? I checked quickly his top ten holdings and did not see CBI there? Not the actual Klarman. But surely there is someone out there who has the ability to analyze this rats nest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 This stock is owned by David Tepper (small 1.54% position) and Berkshire (0.57%)---but this 0.57% probably comprises a much larger percentage of Combs or Weschlers portfolio as they each manage around $7 billion if memory serves me. Also, I think I read on Valuewalk that H. Kevin Byun from Denali holds a position. Can someone let me know if they have any particular insight into the reason shares are getting so beat up? I think Denali might have been doing an arbitrage, but their presentation is interesting anyway. http://www.kishorecapital.com/uploads/7/4/8/6/7486793/shaw_5_-_demanding_fair_value__a_proper_sale_process_-_2012_10_17.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This stock is owned by David Tepper (small 1.54% position) and Berkshire (0.57%)---but this 0.57% probably comprises a much larger percentage of Combs or Weschlers portfolio as they each manage around $7 billion if memory serves me. Also, I think I read on Valuewalk that H. Kevin Byun from Denali holds a position. Can someone let me know if they have any particular insight into the reason shares are getting so beat up? I think Denali might have been doing an arbitrage, but their presentation is interesting anyway. http://www.kishorecapital.com/uploads/7/4/8/6/7486793/shaw_5_-_demanding_fair_value__a_proper_sale_process_-_2012_10_17.pdf What a fun presentation. If SHAW didn't get themselves sold in 2012, I am not sure if they can still sell themselves for $41 per share now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Einhorn started a small position. Tepper trimmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philly value Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Einhorn started a small position. Tepper trimmed. Can't read much into Tepper because it looks like he upended his entire portfolio in Q4. Really amazing to look at the turnover in one quarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RadMan24 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Einhorn started a small position. Tepper trimmed. Can't read much into Tepper because it looks like he upended his entire portfolio in Q4. Really amazing to look at the turnover in one quarter. Berkshire's 13F will be interesting. Or it could be boring, and nothing changes. CB&I itself will answer a lot of information in the coming weeks on the earnings call and 10k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdCapital Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 A couple general points about inferences from 13-Fs, etc... Tepper is on record as planning to return 10-20% of his equity at the end of 2014. Ergo, anything that wasn't trimmed by ~15%, is an effective "add". For fun, review the recent filing these guys did regarding GM. Annex 1 shows equity trades (Holy Cow Tepper trades a lot!!!). You can see the options, debt, and swap positions these guys have. It seems from the notes that the "effective" equity exposure is shown in the summary table. Not sure what this looks like on a 13-F, though the 8-K filing shows Tepper owning only slightly fewer shares than his recently filed 13-F (13/31/2014). Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenwave Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 ------------------------- “CBI just released a new SEC filing today. Warren Buffett owns about 1/3rd of CBI through buys from himself and various subsidiaries. I tried posting the link but it didn't post. Access it by: CBI website - Investor Relations - SEC Documents. Then open the 13-D that's dated 2/17/15. “ ------------------------- This is a copy /paste from another message board earlier today. ( I have not verified any of the information as posted above ) greenwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RadMan24 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 ------------------------- “CBI just released a new SEC filing today. Warren Buffett owns about 1/3rd of CBI through buys from himself and various subsidiaries. I tried posting the link but it didn't post. Access it by: CBI website - Investor Relations - SEC Documents. Then open the 13-D that's dated 2/17/15. “ ------------------------- This is a copy /paste from another message board earlier today. ( I have not verified any of the information as posted above ) greenwave https://www.snl.com/Cache/27739815.pdf?IID=4234612&FID=27739815&O=3&OSID=9 I believe berkshire still only owns 9.9%. It just breaks it down where it is held within the company. Pages 6-11 equal 9.9% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBird Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Isn't it listing Warren Buffett because he's deemed to be a controlling person of Berkshire? I don't think its separate ownership. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbuch Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I think he just owns 10%, interestingly I think he is limited to 10% otherwise CBI could be classified as a Controlled Foreign Corporation as stated in the 10-k, We Have a Risk of Being Classified as a Controlled Foreign Corporation and Certain Shareholders Who Do Not Beneficially Own Shares May Lose the Benefit of Withholding Tax Reduction or Exemption Under Dutch Legislation. As a company incorporated in The Netherlands, we would be classified as a controlled foreign corporation for U.S. federal income tax purposes if any U.S. person acquires 10% or more of our common shares (including ownership through the attribution rules of Section 958 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended (the “Code”), each such person, a “U.S. 10% Shareholder”) and the sum of the percentage ownership by all U.S. 10% Shareholders exceeds 50% (by voting power or value) of our common shares. We do not believe we are currently a controlled foreign corporation; however, we may be determined to be a controlled foreign corporation in the future. In the event that such a determination is made, all U.S. 10% Shareholders would be subject to taxation under Subpart F of the Code. The ultimate consequences of this determination are fact-specific to each U.S. 10% Shareholder, but could include possible taxation of such U.S. 10% Shareholder on a pro rata portion of our income, even in the absence of any distribution of such income. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cb-reports-strong-2014-fourth-210100635.html Commenting on CB&I's outlook for 2015, Mr. Asherman stated, "We project less than 5 percent of our revenue from new bookings could be affected by timing risks associated with lower oil prices. Accordingly, we think it is prudent to marginally adjust our guidance to revenue of $14.4 billion - $15.2 billion and earnings per share of $5.55 - $6.05." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbarberayr Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Could see a nice move tomorrow. Maintaining that earnings outlook makes the stock very cheap looking forward. If they wanted to downgrade their outlook, this was the time to do it and they didn't, so they must be very confident of meeting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbuch Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I know the nuclear projects remain a headwind but CBI generates about $600M in normalized FCF and even if they were on the hook for half of the nuclear overruns that would knockout a year of earnigns. They trade at 7.4 forward earnings which seems to more than justify the risk vs FLR and JEC trading at 13x. CBI has grown book value per share at over 15% CAGR since 1996. Fair value should be at least $65 and $100 in three years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I sucked my thumb while this was in the 30s but cash flow was very strong this quarter so I just bought on the big gap up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now