Voodooking Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 How do we think this one is going to go then guys, and when do you think we'll get to find out? Closing arguments from both sides were heard today as far as I'm aware, then the Judge has to make his decision, no jury. DoJ have been a bit flaky and threw in a bone in their closing statement about "If you do let this through, maybe you should have AT&T divest at least some of TWX's assets..." which kind of suggests they maybe think it's going to go that way anyway...? I've got about 5% of my portfolio in TWX and view it as a low risk Arb. Hopefully TWX will do alright or maybe even trade higher if the deal breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 I dunno but I tell you what, 10ish percent upside in a month or so might be worse case. I did a little thing on NFLX and I was like damn HBO is just really starting to even "try" in this space and I can get it for like 2/3rds off, not to mention the other stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voodooking Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 I think I answered my own question... :( I was looking for a decision quicker than this. http://variety.com/2018/politics/news/att-time-warner-antitrust-7-1202792380/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 Today's the day on this one. Who's willing to put odds on the deal going through? Personally I am leaning 70% odds the judge lets it go through clean or with T's arbitration offer for competing pay-tv providers. Either way would be a win for the deal. Not sure if Justice would appeal before T could close, but T wants to close this thing in a matter of days if it gets a favorable ruling. What do you guys think? It's rare to have such a binary trading outcome at a pre-set time of day... Certainly entertaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NBL0303 Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 Today's the day on this one. Who's willing to put odds on the deal going through? Personally I am leaning 70% odds the judge lets it go through clean or with T's arbitration offer for competing pay-tv providers. Either way would be a win for the deal. Not sure if Justice would appeal before T could close, but T wants to close this thing in a matter of days if it gets a favorable ruling. What do you guys think? It's rare to have such a binary trading outcome at a pre-set time of day... Certainly entertaining It's going through with the standard restrictions (arbitration/etc.). Justice will not appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 Thanks for weighing in. You a buyer at 95.xx? No real opportunity in the options, they are priced accordingly Today's the day on this one. Who's willing to put odds on the deal going through? Personally I am leaning 70% odds the judge lets it go through clean or with T's arbitration offer for competing pay-tv providers. Either way would be a win for the deal. Not sure if Justice would appeal before T could close, but T wants to close this thing in a matter of days if it gets a favorable ruling. What do you guys think? It's rare to have such a binary trading outcome at a pre-set time of day... Certainly entertaining It's going through with the standard restrictions (arbitration/etc.). Justice will not appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NBL0303 Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 Thanks for weighing in. You a buyer at 95.xx? No real opportunity in the options, they are priced accordingly I was an arb buyer at a much lower price. Though the price doesn't look like it has gone up that much - the arb price has gone up a lot because the 50% short on AT&T came down considerably. The spread is not quite wide enough for me at their current respective prices. It's going through with the standard restrictions (arbitration/etc.). Justice will not appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 Well I bought my only shares at 95.51 average during today's session... Am not short T against it. We'll see in a few minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 Well I bought my only shares at 95.51 average during today's session... Am not short T against it. We'll see in a few minutes If deal approved, I think T will go up too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 Deal approved with no conditions. T down because of the arb. Ultimately T may go higher but not on the announcement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chesko182 Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 are people here taking the shares or selling before close? AT&T looks optically cheap, and strategically this is a good deal for the company. They are also paying a low multiple for TWX (now that almost two years have gone by since merger agreement...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2018/07/att-changing-hbo/564635/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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