yadayada Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 Seemingly very cheap cyclical in India http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/value2/Idea/ViewIdea/84756 http://www.beyondproxy.com/rain-industries-ltd/ Have a vague idea about these ones, look cheap but too little time to research them now. Thoughts? It reminds me of a cheaper version of ZINC this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted August 3, 2014 Author Share Posted August 3, 2014 Nobody? Ill give some more hints on why you need to dig in on this. -India traded, but operations are mostly diversified across the globe (so little india risk) -looking very cheap -Management is very frugal, seems trustworthy, and good capital allocators -Very large moat because of expertise, patents and very long standing industry relationships in the Aluminum industry. -New acquisition could add alot of value to the business within the next few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted August 3, 2014 Share Posted August 3, 2014 I took a very quick look. Balance sheet - only goodwill, nothing tangible. Free cashflow negative in 2013, so probably the start of the cyclical downturn where cyclical stocks look cheap. But i just took a 2 minute view, may be i am wrong but thats what i look for in these two minutes. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted August 3, 2014 Author Share Posted August 3, 2014 yeah did some more work, they now produce the two components needed to make aluminum. This is like 80% of their business. Looking at aluminum, demand is expected to rise there in the next decade. I think it is a lot less cyclical then I first thought. Trading at extremely cheap valuations. seems if you adjust for working capital changes and adjust for normalized capex, FCF would be about 5.5 billion rupees in 2013. That is a multiple of about 2.5x. Debt is over 80 billion though, that is probably one of the reasons this one is so cheap. But I think you can expect some incremental income frome their Rutgers acquisition over the next few years. Catalyst would be reducing debt and buybacks. If you want to figure out risks of cyclicality you gotta look at Aluminum demand. And it looks like demand for this has increased over the past 30-40 years with some small hiccups every once in a while. ANd it looks pretty likely to incease over the next 5 years. I guess what we want to figure out is, how much will Rutgers add over the next few years? So far it didn't really add anything in income. This cost them 60 billion rupees. If this is going to be a catalyst in the next few years, then this thing could be really dirt cheap. I think risk from their leverage is mitigated by their competitive advantage, and the relative stability of the aluminum industry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zizou Posted August 3, 2014 Share Posted August 3, 2014 Glanced at the research above... Despite high leverage ( Net Debt/EBITDA = 5.43 ; EBITDA/Int Expense = 2.42 ), the company should benefit from global growth tailwinds and demonstrate rising EBITDA, Revenues over the next few years.. It could be worth 160-200Rs as they pay off debt and cycle recovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmukul Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Hi YadaYada, Thanks for all the information on the stock, this does look cheap and interesting. Will take a deeper and see if something else stands out, One thing I noticed that promoters (insiders) sold some shares (.68% of the company) to be exact in june this year, You know better than me what it means. Also in india it seems growth at a reasonable price is probably a better way to go as there is a lot of stuff growing with leaps and bounds if you can hold them for 3-5 years but it does bring some risk related to india and its politics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 I'm based in USA and I have had trouble finding a broker who lets me trade on BSE/NSE. Can someone recommend a good one? Also in india it seems growth at a reasonable price is probably a better way to go as there is a lot of stuff growing with leaps and bounds if you can hold them for 3-5 years but it does bring some risk related to india and its politics Can you provide some examples? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted August 4, 2014 Author Share Posted August 4, 2014 most of their operations are outside India. They said they will try to list the carbon business on the US exchange. This will probably be a catalyst. ALso I can buy this one on IB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted August 5, 2014 Author Share Posted August 5, 2014 Does anyone know how to buy this? I need to be indian to buy it on Interactive brokers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigspydee Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Mohnish Pabrai invested in Rain industries on April 20 2015. He bought close to 1% of the company. http://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/equities/bulkdeals/bulkdeals.jsp?symbol=&dateRange=day&fromDate=20-04-2015&toDate=20-04-2015&segmentLink=13&symbolCount= Beyond proxy report - good read http://www.beyondproxy.com/rain-industries-ltd/ Update - Pabrai funds bought another 51,14,568 shares in Rain industries. That's close of 3%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simplefocus Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 As a non-Indian, how do you purchase shares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigspydee Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Interactive Brokers for small sums. For large sums i am not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmukul Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The stock has finally moved, the cement business is also getting positive news in india as prices are moving up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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