Ham Hockers Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I'm really starting to like this, apart from the investments in a lacrosse team wait what? can't believe I missed this. are these guys LAXBROS????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I'm really starting to like this, apart from the investments in a lacrosse team wait what? can't believe I missed this. are these guys LAXBROS????? Says in the AR that they are involved with a lacrosse and NASCAR team, I believe. Didn't stop med around these levels though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 For what it's worth I was in Boston for a conference and I got to talk to a cab driver to the airport. We start to talk and he told me how life is getting tougher as a cab driver due to Uber. He mentioned that Boston Medallions used to go for $700k each and now real market price is $200k and no one wants to buy it. With Uber's introduction, it is simply not economical to be a medallion cab driver. I asked him if there is organized efforts to protest/fight against Uber and he said that there really isn't any sorts of organized effort. The cab drivers don't belong to unions. There really aren't any funding or political will, in Boston at least, to fight against Uber. This is just 1 data point, but if this is representative of what's going on, this could have deep implications. If a bunch of us just took a few cab rides in NYC and Boston, we can probably figure this out fairly quickly. A sample size of >10 will provide some meaningful extrapolation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Most of their medallion loans are in NYC, where they seem to have a defence against Uber; only yellow cabs can take a street hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawn619 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 For what it's worth I was in Boston for a conference and I got to talk to a cab driver to the airport. We start to talk and he told me how life is getting tougher as a cab driver due to Uber. He mentioned that Boston Medallions used to go for $700k each and now real market price is $200k and no one wants to buy it. With Uber's introduction, it is simply not economical to be a medallion cab driver. I asked him if there is organized efforts to protest/fight against Uber and he said that there really isn't any sorts of organized effort. The cab drivers don't belong to unions. There really aren't any funding or political will, in Boston at least, to fight against Uber. This is just 1 data point, but if this is representative of what's going on, this could have deep implications. If a bunch of us just took a few cab rides in NYC and Boston, we can probably figure this out fairly quickly. A sample size of >10 will provide some meaningful extrapolation. I live in NYC and have talked to multiple cab drivers about UBER. they almost never say anything bad about it from an employee point of view. Uber allows it's drivers the flexibility to choose their work schedule, where yellow cabs force drivers to rent out their cars for about a week at a time. Also uber pays them more and there are lower chances of their passenger not paying. From the cab driver's point of view, driving with uber is superior to driving with a yellow cab in almost every way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haasje Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I wrote a bearish article on TAXI on SA in response to a bullish one because the bull case appeared too optimistic to me. The investment has a large downside and limited upside. This could still be ok, if the odds of the upside being realized were hugely in your favor but I doubt they are, hugely. Very soon after someone did a much better job than I did making the bear case: http://www.hvmcapital.com/taxi.pdf I have no position either way but thought the article might be useful whether you are bull or bear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krazeenyc Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I've taken Uber and Lyft a ton in NYC. All the drivers hate driving for Uber/Lyft here -- they all feel deceived (ie don't earn as much as advertised (some were Uber black and forced to accept Uber X rates). In most cities Uber/Lyft are fantastic for the part time driver -- it's just a source for extra cash. Additionally, in most cities Uber/Lyft cars are not part of the TLC and have a huge advantage in that they are much cheaper than regulated taxis with medallions. In NYC it's different, the Uber/Lyft cars are all part of the TLC and charge rates that are basically the same as yellow cabs. I'm not convinced that the medallion is dead -- but... I really don't know. I put TAXI in the too hard pile (for now), but the performance/return of their consumer loans (for things like jet skis, boats, home improvement) is amazing. Remember, that in Boston, Uber and Lyft are operating in a gray area -- technically illegal. There is a lot of question marks about the future of ridesharing in these locales. Remember Napster? Kazaa? Online poker in the U.S.? (In NYC they are legal and basically super livery companies). It's funny if you take an NJ UBER to JFK it's almost half the price of taking a NYC UBER back to NJ from JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Again, for what it's worth. I took another cab after I landed in NYC. Got to talking with the cab driver. He mentioned that NYC yellow medallions used to go for over $1mm and now the market clearing price is $600k. This all happened in the last 6-7 months. Again, no one wants to buy the medallions. If the NYC yellow medallions really is $600k, then the average TAXI loan in NYC is likely greater than 80% LTV. This is quite scary. The cabbie's take is that it's a lot easier being an Uber/Lyft driver, lease a car for $350/week, and just drive. His take is that the Uber/Lyft drivers can make $1,500 to $2,000 per week. Now there maybe some "the grass is greener on the other side" mentality here. But a move from $1mm to $600k is a very important data point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krazeenyc Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm not long the stock but... http://www.nyc.gov/html/tlc/downloads/pdf/january_2015_medallion_transfers.pdf http://www.nyc.gov/html/tlc/downloads/pdf/december_2014_medallion_transfers.pdf http://www.nyc.gov/html/tlc/downloads/pdf/november_2014_medallion_transfers.pdf http://www.nyc.gov/html/tlc/downloads/pdf/october_2014_medallion_transfers.pdf Vs a couple years ago http://www.nyc.gov/html/tlc/downloads/pdf/january_2013_medallion_transfers.pdf http://www.nyc.gov/html/tlc/downloads/pdf/december_2012_medallion_transfers.pdf http://www.nyc.gov/html/tlc/downloads/pdf/november_2012_medallion_transfers.pdf Looks like medallions have been trading down at around $950K from $1.1+ a couple years ago. Of course it is not a deep or liquid market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
permabear Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Looks like everyone is rushing for the exit at once. Wait until the banks have to take back medallions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shhughes1116 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 I'm not sure TAXI offers enough margin of safety for me given the risk I perceive at this moment. However, I do think the folks that proclaim the death of traditional taxis (and the medallion model) are a little bit naive. There are a couple of reasons why I think the traditional taxi model (with medallions) will prevail over Uber/Lyft: 1. Municipalities have an incentive to implement and control a medallion market since they benefit from selling medallions. 2. Historically, municipalities have regulated taxi cabs (and taxi cab companies) for a variety of reasons (safety, quality of life, revenue for the municipality). One of the big reasons why taxi cabs have been regulated is to ensure taxi services are available for the disabled. The American's with Disabilities Act (ADA) helps ensure that taxi services are available to the disabled, and regulation provides a mechanism for enforcing this at the municipal level. If you call a traditional taxi company and ask for a cab, and you are disabled, they will send an accessible vehicle. If you call Uber/Lyft, and request an accessible vehicle, no one will pick you up. This has been reported numerous times in the media, and I have seen this happen now more than once. Uber and/or Lyft is being sued by some disabled folks. Ultimately what is likely to happen is that DoJ will pursue this and compel Uber/Lyft to start providing accessible vehicles. This changes their business model a bit... [uber's argument is that technology companies are not subject to ADA...I suspect they are going to be taken to the woodshed by DoJ over this). 3. Each Uber driver I have spoken with has indicated that they earn far less than what was promised. (As a society, I think we all complain about earning less than we think we deserve...) This is important, in my mind, because each of these Uber drivers also indicated that they did not possess commercial insurance for their car. If they had purchased commercial insurance, as required by their insurance company for the activity they were engaged in, their earnings would be substantially reduced. In a couple of cases, they indicated that it would have no longer been profitable to drive for Uber. 4. Ultimately, I think Uber/Lyft is going to have a difficult time claiming that the Uber/Lyft drivers are not employees. I understand their argument, which happens to be a very convenient argument for them. However, when you look at how both companies operate, I tend to think they will ultimately be required to classify and compensate the drivers as employees rather than independent contractors. This is not to say that Uber and Lyft have not and will not disrupt the industry. I think that the traditional taxi cab service in the D.C. metro area has improved substantially since the introduction of Uber/Lyft. However, when you are driving illegally (without commercial driving insurance), operating illegally as a taxi (without medallions/permits in a regulated industry), and violating the American's with Disabilities Act by refusing to pick up the disabled, ultimately your business model is going to have to change. And when they change their business model, they are going to find that they are forced to operate on a more level playing field with traditional taxis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 http://gothamist.com/2015/08/21/why_yellow_cabs_are_taking_up_all_o.php#photo-6 This can't be good for business Greenpoint's Growing Taxi Graveyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-taxi-medallion-king/ The Struggles of New York City's Taxi King - Bloomberg http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20150909/BLOGS04/150909863/judge-rules-on-taxi-industry-lawsuit-compete-with-uber-or-die Judge rules on taxi industry lawsuit: Compete with Uber or die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ham Hockers Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 There's a new ride hailing app for taxis in NYC called Arro. Have not tried yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
permabear Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 Taxis are playing catch-up. Can't see that app becoming a success. Uber's app has allowed users to hail yellow cabs for a while. Desperate times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnny Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 Is there any attempt to make a ground-up valuation case for the medallions long term? Besides the possibility that there is a sort of de-facto "yellow cab" brand that can command some premium, I don't understand how there is any. And even in that case, it is not clear to me that there is really any data to try and figure out what that normalized premium is, and therefore what the medallions should discount to. I think the fact that de Blasio backed down from his confrontation with Uber is a pretty bad sign for the medallion market, since he seems to have been very sympathetic to the yellow cabs and had absolutely 0 concern with seeming startup friendly. Not sure what the endgame is here is other than permanently bottomed out pricing by Uber and Lyft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
permabear Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 Medallions had value when they were the only game in town. The analysis would have been determining the NOI as a medallion owner/operator and an applicable cap rate. Financing was easy and cheap. Today is a different story: taxis do not have a monopoly and capital has completely dried up. Financing is typically short-term loans, so medallion owners need to refinance regularly. Just last week, the largest credit unions' suit against NYC/TLC for not regulating Uber was thrown out by the judge. This is a huge blow to the value of medallions. http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20150909/BLOGS04/150909863/judge-rules-on-taxi-industry-lawsuit-compete-with-uber-or-die If that means yellow-cab medallions worth a collective $10 billion or so just two years ago become worthless, the judge suggested, so be it. I find it telling that Medallion Financial, with over 50% of their portfolio exposed to taxi medallions, hasn't commented on the market meltdown at all. I think we are going to see a lot of defaults, writeoffs, increasing loss provisions, etc. in the coming 12 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junto Posted September 14, 2015 Author Share Posted September 14, 2015 The question right now is if ~$111 million (40% of capital) is a fair discount to the long-term viability of the portfolio. TAXI still has a growing secondary business. I was utterly wrong on this one but think the market is getting glossy eyes a little on UBER. There will be fallout on the credit union front particularly (they are who sued and have no access to additional capital). It has more to do with the seasoned position of the portfolio and the willingness of medallion owners to continue amortizing their debts over time. There still may be a fair amount of value in this business long-term from these levels but it won't be because of a growing medallion loan business but from its other consumer and commercial loan unit growth. Right now that is where the margin, the story really is... Time will tell, in the meantime, I will be licking my wounds and be thankful I was able to pick up some real cheap stocks a couple of weeks back when the market went crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junto Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 Q3 earnings are out. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000209/000119312515366148/d33833dex991.htm It should be noted that some notable credit unions have been running into significant troubles for their medallion lending problems... this could impact the marketplace as assets are shed http://creditunionwatch.blogspot.com/search/label/Taxi%20Medallions Value on NYC medallions estimated at $675,000. Here are some additional comments and dialogue in this SeekingAlpha post that is very interesting: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3528706-medallion-financial-shares-launched-on-barrons-article-but-wheres-the-beef Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
permabear Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 These guys are playing accounting games. Wrote up the value of the Medallion Bank subsidiary to make earnings in Q2 2015 and wrote it up again in Q3. Historically, they have carried it at book value (adjusted up or down based on R/E of the sub). Now they say they have encountered 'external interest' in the subsidiary at a fair value exceeding book value, leading them to write it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
permabear Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Short Medallion Financial (NASDAQ:MFIN fka TAXI) Highly exposed to NYC taxi medallions (licenses) as approx. 50% of their book is invested in medallion loans. Huge debt maturities coming due in 2016 totaling 74% of all debt (not including brokered deposits). Debt service costs are increasing rapidly - latest financing was an unsecured debenture offering at 9.0% vs. average cost of parent-level borrowing at 2.5% just prior. Close to tripping several regulatory covenants, which could affect FDIC insurance coverage on deposits, ability to dividend cash up to parents, ability to raise capital without diluting shareholders, etc. Massive +13% dividend yield that is being funded by debt/eating into equity (not supported by operating income). Complacent management caught flat-footed as business was minting money for years (as medallion values only went up!). Senior executives and directors now dropping like flies. Questionable write-ups to fair value of medallion assets to keep up appearances. Good recent explanation here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3985501-can-medallion-financial-survive-230m-refinancing-cliff-year-end?app=1&uprof=22&isDirectRoadblock=false and attached from SZ (not mine).TAXI_Write_up___FINAL_SZ.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 Interesting but fyi there is already a Taxi thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
permabear Posted August 2, 2016 Share Posted August 2, 2016 Medallion cut their dividend by 80% today. The stock is down 25%. Q2 2016 PR: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160802006110/en/Medallion-Financial-Corp.-Reports-2016-Quarter-Results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odin Posted August 3, 2016 Share Posted August 3, 2016 Accolades to permabear. It was in my stack just not enough time to get to it unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
permabear Posted August 3, 2016 Share Posted August 3, 2016 Cheers. Story is not over yet. Stay tuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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