Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks' latest memo "Risk Revisited"

[kiwing100]

 

Risk revisited

 

http://www.oaktreecapital.com/MemoTree/Risk%20Revisited.pdf

[merkhet]

"In Dare to Be Great II, I described the time I spent advising a sovereign wealth fund about how to organize for the next thirty years. My presentation was built significantly around my conviction that risk can’t be quantified a priori. Another of their advisors, a professor from a business school north of New York, insisted it can. This is something I prefer not to debate, especially with people who’re sure they have the answer but haven’t bet much money on it."

 

Love it.

[james22]

Thanks for this.

 

I'm a Hussman fan, believing (still) this time isn't different, but a good reminder:

 

...the history that took place is only one version of what it could have been. If you accept this, then the relevance of history to the future is much more limited than may appear to be the case.

[Steve]

 

http://greatinvestors.tv/video/howard-marks-on-taking-the-high-road-in-business-and-investi.html

 

okay can anybody see what books are on Howard Mark's bookshelf?  Tried zooming in and reading the titles but no luck.  Thanks!

[smreitz]

 

http://greatinvestors.tv/video/howard-marks-on-taking-the-high-road-in-business-and-investi.html

 

okay can anybody see what books are on Howard Mark's bookshelf?  Tried zooming in and reading the titles but no luck.  Thanks!

 

Thanks for posting.

 

Haha, I definitely see Howard's own book "The Most Important Thing", but can't see anything else clearly.

 

Maybe Howard is using some subliminal advertising???

 

Fight ON!

 

 

[yadayada]

"In Dare to Be Great II, I described the time I spent advising a sovereign wealth fund about how to organize for the next thirty years. My presentation was built significantly around my conviction that risk can’t be quantified a priori. Another of their advisors, a professor from a business school north of New York, insisted it can. This is something I prefer not to debate, especially with people who’re sure they have the answer but haven’t bet much money on it."

 

Love it.

everyone knows the markets are efficient. You can't make money, and all those people trying are just delusional. Or at least that is what that professor tells people on cocktail parties when they ask him why he is not rich yet, despite being a economics professor. I seriously think that is why so many academics liked that theory so much. Imagine being a economics professor living on a meager university salary. That must hurt your credibility.

[stahleyp]

"In Dare to Be Great II, I described the time I spent advising a sovereign wealth fund about how to organize for the next thirty years. My presentation was built significantly around my conviction that risk can’t be quantified a priori. Another of their advisors, a professor from a business school north of New York, insisted it can. This is something I prefer not to debate, especially with people who’re sure they have the answer but haven’t bet much money on it."

 

Love it.

everyone knows the markets are efficient. You can't make money, and all those people trying are just delusional. Or at least that is what that professor tells people on cocktail parties when they ask him why he is not rich yet, despite being a economics professor. I seriously think that is why so many academics liked that theory so much. Imagine being a economics professor living on a meager university salary. That must hurt your credibility.

 

The markets are pretty efficient though man. Look at the vast majority of funds and even pretty acclaimed investors like Bill Miller and Longleaf. And just because markets are pretty efficient - that doesn't mean you won't make money. In fact, if you index, you're gonna make more money than most other funds. Very, very few funds actually beat their boogey. Now if one wants to go with high concentration and/or options trades, yeah, you can get rich pretty quickly...or broke. The issue with destroying an index's return isn't intelligence - temperament plays an even bigger piece.