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LVS - Las Vegas Sands


ArminvanBuyout

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I think long term it might be a good investment (it's an owner operator?) but in the near term Macau is cooling down. I've been watching this for a couple of weeks and when sentiment and valuation gets really depressed I might be interested.

 

I remember in January people loving this one and WYNN at 30x+ earnings. There was so much priced in it takes time to deflate.

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Guest Schwab711

Completely subjective but I hate the gambling industry from an investment standpoint (I am a good customer though, perhaps surprisingly). There is a perception that the houses profits immensely and their customers believe margins are much higher than they are. There has also been a culture created of giving away perks to any and everyone in their building (free drinks, comps on everything, ect). Casino Hotels are in a race to see who can have the highest fixed costs (in a bad way) which means any downturns will cause permanent loss.

 

I hate losing money or having a bad investment. I'd rather watch hundreds of very good investments pass me by then bet on a company whose business model I don't like. They will likely benefit from future consolidation in the gambling industry as the smaller operators will be hurt by the excellent value of a gaming experience AC can provide since most operators there are desperate for any revenue due to the high fixed costs. Awful industry and WYNN, not LVS, has the best operations and is least dependent on gaming out of the majors.

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In regards, to catalysts, there is a bunch of infrastructure improvements currently in the works. Also, there is the potential of Japan, (and South Korea to a lesser extent) giving out gaming licenses in preparation of the Olympics. LVS is in a prime position to pounce on this opportunity.

 

While there is the potential of more headwinds in the near-turn, and the share price could decline even more if more negative news comes out (such as more cracking down on corruption, Chinese economy slowing down, etc.), I still see it as a good way to capitalize on Eastern Asia's market.

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  • 4 months later...
  • 4 weeks later...

Has anyone been falling the stock lately?

 

At 16x P/E and ~4% dividend yield, it seems that this could be a good point to enter.

 

After having bought at 4 and sold at 17, i have problem to buy at 50s :(

Lvs is good investment cuz they dont give out casino licenses in china anymore, and chinese like gamble.  Lvs is less depend on VIPs like wynn and more depends on chinese tourists. But there's too many shady illegal things going on there, and there will be more capex needed in the future.

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At $45bn, hard to see this stock increasing 4x.  LVS breaks out planned capex spending in their presentations.  They plan on spending $2.4bn in 2015 to finish their hotel expansion plans and that declines rapidly to $610mm in 2017.  If they can get permits in Japan or Korea for gambling, would think it would be a good position to spend the capex and build those out.

 

My thesis is that they have room to open one or two more hotels which gives you a revenue lift.  You get paid to wait with the dividend until the Chinese government completes its purge and the rich come back and they get higher volumes of mass premium players with better transportation links.  They also have a duopoly position in Singapore and 40% of their gaming expenses get passed through as taxes to the Macao government.

 

YoY declines in gross gambling revenues look really bad and bans on smoking, crackdowns on union pay cards and restrictions in visas are not positive either.  But, Macao is currently the most convenient way for people to gamble in China and despite the growth inflection there, people are going to get richer and Macao is a good place to relieve them of some of that wealth.

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