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ARCP - American Realty Capital Properties


thepupil

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Fort the existing properties they may be OK if they had good underwriting.  What this really stops is growth.  The way these NNN REITs grow is to buy properties and NNN lease them.  The capital for growth comes from equity investors and banks.  If they cannot raise equity then the growth is gone. 

 

Packer 

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Agree with Packer that this whole ordeal will result in limited or no future growth.

 

As a result of this and with the pressure that will be placed on Schorsch to unwind his tangled web of conflicts amongst all his different entities, I see this thing potentially getting sold as the market for these type of assets remains strong.

 

Just speculating, but  Blackstone (who they just closed the $1.9B shopping center deal with) or another private equity type who could buy this and maybe carve it up and sell it in pieces to other institutions or NNN REIT's in smaller portfolios similar to the EOP deal.

 

Now the question is what is the existing portfolio worth. I know an NAV of $12-$13 was thrown around at some point. While one can argue they overpaid for the Red Lobster acquisition, 46% of the portfolio is credit rated which in this environment are trading sub 6% caps.

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The saving grace is ARCP issued about $12Bn in equity to buy their assets in a generally increasing market for CRE.  They likely did overpay, but, the rising tide in market values erases many sins.

 

Should they turn around and essentially unwind their transactions at a discount (take a 15% haircut but use it to buy stock at a 40% discount) - this would be accretive to the buyer and also ARCP.

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Likely post for posterity when gains evaporate whilst I dither:  Anyone else long this one? (VER now)...Thinking about selling this as I believe my original valuation was $10-$12.  Now that I'm in the range I'm feeling like $12 sounds better...haha.  I'm just about to tick over into LTCG in a week or so.

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Likely post for posterity when gains evaporate whilst I dither:  Anyone else long this one? (VER now)...Thinking about selling this as I believe my original valuation was $10-$12.  Now that I'm in the range I'm feeling like $12 sounds better...haha.  Guess I'm just about coming up one year.

 

Still long Vereit. If it gets to $12 I'll probably sell (15x FFO seems like a good target).

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