berkshire101 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 CLB is down almost 40% year-to-date. Has anyone else taken a look at this company? The numbers are very impressive. Return on capital is over 50% and book value (after including dividends paid and share repurchases) and earnings grew over 20% over the past 10 years. It's trading for around 21 times earnings, which isn't cheap. But if management can continue to allocate capital like they have in the past then I think it's a bargain. I own small amount and will buy more probably this coming week. The company operates in the oil & gas services industry similar to the likes of Schlumberger (SLB) and the likes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wbr Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 My first impression is that the growth and the FCF generation are indeed impressive. Also insiders have been buying during the recent decline. I'm probably going to take a look at it. The main concern I have is: how much will they be hurt when oil companies slash capex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshire101 Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 CLB's revenue did decline during the financial crisis, however, their FCF continued to go. I like how management will only make investments if it meets a certain hurdle rate, thus for the really high return on capital. CLB concentrates its services on capital spending activity by producers related to improving production from existing reservoirs, rather than exploration. With lower oil prices, oil producers aren't going to recklessly spend money to explore new reserves. They would focus on maximizing existing producing assets. So CLB will be impacted from lower oil price, but at least CLB's services will insulate them by providing much added value to their clients. Also, another company with similar characteristics to CLB is Computer Modelling Group (CMDXF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green King Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Buffett Once broken down investing as "one bird in the hand is worth two in the bush." The questions are how sure are you going to get the two bird? What is their competitive advantage VS others ? Since i have no way to handicap that given the current understanding of the business when are you going to get it ? how sure are you that this businesses will last at least 20 years to break even assuming no growth.If there is growth than how much and why ? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2014/10/32873995_14141130271055_rId8.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The numbers look really impressive but after reading the annual report i still have no clue what their moat is. The high ROIC comes probably from the fact that all management incentives are bound to this number, but what is their advantage over their competitors? From my impression this is just a technology company that currently has an edge in the fracking business. Am i wrong? Will this last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshire101 Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 I view CLB as a data mining company. They've compiled decades of data on reservoirs that's beneficial to producers. Everytime they work a producer, they gather more data. And that data is used to publish research reports and best practices for the industry. Producers rely on that data to best optimize their reservoirs. Thus, the more producers that work with CLB, the better research will be. The moat in this case would be the network effect since information improves with more producers that work with CLB. It'll be difficult for a competitor to replicate decades of data even if they manage to convert users to their research. That's my take anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valueguy134 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Someone just read the morningstar book. They mention this company in their new moat book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshire101 Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Someone just read the morningstar book. They mention this company in their new moat book. That someone isn't me, been meaning to pick up the book though. I did read M*'s analysis on CLB. And most of the info is stated in their 10-k filings. M* helped simplified things though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valueguy134 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Wouldn't bother picking up the book. It's more about self promotion, you would be better off with the Greenwald book on value investing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshire101 Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 CLB looks interesting at the $110 level. P/E is under 20 and compounding at a plus 20% percent rate. Wonder if we'll see it below $100? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshire101 Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 Announced at 10% dividend increase. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/core-lab-announces-q1-2015-210500062.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I hope it opens where it's trading AH, CLB is very interesting below $90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Wow thanks for bringing this to my attention. I thought they were cheap when I bought them under $100. Hopefully I'll have time to look into this tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshire101 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 I just bought more shares after the decline. 1st quarter earnings look to decline about 20% prior year, but it's still cheap at these levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I just bought more shares after the decline. 1st quarter earnings look to decline about 20% prior year, but it's still cheap at these levels. I bought some today. I figure at least we have some idea of the hit they'll take due to lower oil prices and they really seem insulated from the carnage for the most part. The earnings guidance was actually higher than what I expected and seemed to support the idea of CLB having a competitive advantage (they implied that their proprietary software makes it difficult for users to switch which is why revenues were so high in spite of the oil price decline). Prolonged period of low oil prices will certainly hurt short-term earnings but it's close to 10x Operating Earnings with insane margins. This is the first Buffett-like opportunity I've seen since Moody's/S&P stock collapse. Still hate the industry but not every investment can be Moody's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fisch777 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think the business is more cyclical than it appears looking at 08/09 and listening to management, and don't think they have a clue on how bad business is deteriorating at the moment (understandably). If you listened to the call, mgmt basically admitted that the Q1'15 guidance was just an extrapolation based on how bad revenues/profits deteriorated y/y in Q1 or Q2 of 2009. That is certainly not precise and not very reassuring considering they have ~6 week visibility into projects, and we are at the end of Jan. They kept saying "this is just like 08/09", but I see two major differences: - IOCs were already proactively cutting E&P capex to improve ROCs BEFORE the current crude crash. If you go back to 08/09, every quarter, they were constantly harping that major IOC int'l projects provided "steady base" of business to rely on. I'm seeing estimates of IOC capex cuts of 10-15% for this year. It's hard to determine where this hits production/completion, but I think it's fair to say the outlook for these major int'l projects over the next few years. - Prod'n Enhancement is a larger part of mix now. So, by definition, the business is more cyclical and more exposed to N.Am fracking activity. 60% decremental margins means they are losing a lot of high-end PE business that E&Ps were buying at higher prices. The release said they are losing "completion and stimulation business from recently drilled wells". This is not a good sign, as it suggests economics are so poor for E&Ps at the moment that they aren't spending for CLB services on wells that are ALREADY drilled (major sunk cost). This contrasts with CLB's assertion of stability due to focus the completion/production phase of the well and clear value proposition once the E&P gets to the completion / production phase. On OXY call today, CEO was saying how service prices are broadly way too high considering crude price environment and they will be cutting "well enhancement" and "injection" services as they just don't make sense for returns in this environment. Interested to hear others' thoughts on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-bone1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I think the business is more cyclical than it appears looking at 08/09 and listening to management, and don't think they have a clue on how bad business is deteriorating at the moment (understandably). If you listened to the call, mgmt basically admitted that the Q1'15 guidance was just an extrapolation based on how bad revenues/profits deteriorated y/y in Q1 or Q2 of 2009. That is certainly not precise and not very reassuring considering they have ~6 week visibility into projects, and we are at the end of Jan. They kept saying "this is just like 08/09", but I see two major differences: - IOCs were already proactively cutting E&P capex to improve ROCs BEFORE the current crude crash. If you go back to 08/09, every quarter, they were constantly harping that major IOC int'l projects provided "steady base" of business to rely on. I'm seeing estimates of IOC capex cuts of 10-15% for this year. It's hard to determine where this hits production/completion, but I think it's fair to say the outlook for these major int'l projects over the next few years. - Prod'n Enhancement is a larger part of mix now. So, by definition, the business is more cyclical and more exposed to N.Am fracking activity. 60% decremental margins means they are losing a lot of high-end PE business that E&Ps were buying at higher prices. The release said they are losing "completion and stimulation business from recently drilled wells". This is not a good sign, as it suggests economics are so poor for E&Ps at the moment that they aren't spending for CLB services on wells that are ALREADY drilled (major sunk cost). This contrasts with CLB's assertion of stability due to focus the completion/production phase of the well and clear value proposition once the E&P gets to the completion / production phase. On OXY call today, CEO was saying how service prices are broadly way too high considering crude price environment and they will be cutting "well enhancement" and "injection" services as they just don't make sense for returns in this environment. Interested to hear others' thoughts on this. This was a very insightful comment fisch777, and I agree and I think management of this company is - at the least - promotional Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fisch777 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Case in point: CEO appeared on Mad Money last night. I struggle with this, because they are clearly good operators and have great incentives (ROIC based) in place for both mgmt and BoD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABM Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 I read somewhere that this company has demonstrated an ability to grow faster than the market using E&P cap. ex spending growth as a benchmark. My own calculations did not confirm this but they were admittedly "crude". Globally, producers are estimated to spend $600 billion in 2015 (from Barclays) and assuming 2% of that goes to data analysis (from JPM) of reservoirs it looks like the TAM for CLB is about $12 billion. In 2014, the company recorded just $1 billion of total revenue so it looks like a lot of room to drive growth. My question is can the the network effect allow them to drive higher pricing due to the their higher value proposition or does it allow them to undercut competitors in pricing? This would lead to a strenghtening network effect and only widens the moat between them and the next competitor. There is little doubt this company has a current competitive advantage using Buffet's rule of thumb that really high rates of return over long periods typically indicate there is a moat. My concern is focused on its durability which I see increasing due to the network effect. I do not understand the production enhancement segment as it definitely appears like a lower return business. CLB's independence is part of their value proposition as they are not selling "solutions" like the other big 4. I believe this why the big 4 do not significantly compete in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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