Sharad Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 They're going to write a show on this one...damn. https://tpltblog.com/2019/06/19/amended-counterclaims-barrys-election-challenged/ For the record, David Barry has been a trustee since 2016. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Following this owe with interest from the sidelines :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Solid numbers today https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17682859-texas-pacific-land-trust-announces-third-quarter-2019-financial-operating-results Ive started rebuilding this position under $600 as its come back in. This once mysterious and hard to value company seems to becoming a little easier to value as the revenue numbers continue their ascent. Curious if anyone else still follows or if this is now a forgotten favorite of yesteryear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Solid numbers today https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17682859-texas-pacific-land-trust-announces-third-quarter-2019-financial-operating-results Ive started rebuilding this position under $600 as its come back in. This once mysterious and hard to value company seems to becoming a little easier to value as the revenue numbers continue their ascent. Curious if anyone else still follows or if this is now a forgotten favorite of yesteryear. As I mentioned last year, something like this is beyond my ability to model. See the below short pitch on Whiting Petroleum for an example of how complex trying to model shale E&P stuff can be. Type curves, EURs, decline rates, etc. Additionally, TPL is basically a play on drilling in just a few West Texas counties, so IMO to bullish this you have to have a strong opinion about future oil and gas activity in those particular counties. I am mildly bullish on oil, but this is in the too hard pile for me. https://twitter.com/EnergyCredit1/status/1189920022375862274 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 I own it - at a fairly higher level from here ... Yes - rev's are exploding, with the forced buyback etc as per the charter ... at some point in the future, there will literally be just 1 share left of TPL Havent added - but was encouraged by last nights #s. They need new corp governance, Extremely interesting special situation IMHO how do you model something with 1) exploding net income and revs/margins 2) a company that literally can only buyback its stock ... there are only like ~7.5M units traded ... down from 500M back in 1930! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Part of me is absolutely in the Foreign Tuffett camp with this. Its one of the main reasons O&G is generally a pretty solid no-no zone for me. TPL I can get comfortable making a bit of an exception because it has other things going for it as well, and as we are seeing, a pretty dedicated long term shareholder. I like the mandate to buyback stock. Except they haven't been doing this lately. I like that it is a trust and not a corporation; just cash checks dont write them...except now that is changing and with the water biz they are at 20 something head count IIRC. So because of the above and its place as an O&G play, Ill probably have an internal position limit cap. However between the sheer magnitude of their land holding, royalty revenue streams, and basically just a lack of shares outstanding...I can get comfortable to a degree. Haircut the hell out of their revenue and O&G growth and then just assume they are run as they have traditionally been. As Valuemaven mentions, that, plus the convergence of all the other good stuff and hopefully a return to share buybacks, allow time to be your friend here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharad Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 I still own this, and try to buy it whenever the price falls into the mid-$500s. That said, I remain disappointed with the terrible capital allocation. Or, dare I say it, their lack of capital allocation. The Trust is supposed to buy back sub-shares, and has failed to do so for two straight quarters. Yes, exploration should continue to rise, especially since their land overlays Anadarko Petroleum, and Occidental will need to justify the rich price they paid for the company. The company continues to see higher easement revenue, which usually has stickiness, and should mean more oil production. Oil price is anybody's guess, so the future will always be murky, but seeing $50 EPS this year isn't out of the realm of possibility. Let's hope they resume buybacks instead of just having special committee meetings every two weeks. Rant over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 $250m in cash in the bank no debt ... could pay a $10 - $20 special dividend per share ... would prefer buybacks at this point however. possible to value - exploding net income, coupled with a sharecount which has declined from 500m shares back in the 30s, to 7.7m shares today. Only issue is the Trustees, who should be removed at all costs. next catalyst is the c-corp conversion. If and when that happens, this doubles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 new website, new investor deck with a lot of new info ... would love to hear what others thing... i think they are prepping for a c-corp conversion and possibly 1-10 split to improve liquidity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philbert77 Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 new website, new investor deck with a lot of new info ... would love to hear what others thing... i think they are prepping for a c-corp conversion and possibly 1-10 split to improve liquidity That would be lovely but I fear it is all just window dressing - like "see we aren't crooks and you should let us keep our lifetime appointments and forget all this nonsense of proper corporate governance". The way they fought so hard against the appointment of a new shareholder proposed trustee and wasted so much shareholder money fighting the very thing the shareholders wanted makes me very cynical. But perhaps they have seen the writing on the wall. I really hope you are right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irakraus Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 TA-DAH? https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20191204005475/en/ "The committee unanimously recognized compelling reasons to move to a corporate structure" Update: 8-k is out too - https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/97517/000121390019025275/f8k120419_texas.htm If the company released it, and the trustees were against it at the beginning, so I guess we are heading somewhere good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 Yes. Huge news. I like where this is going directionally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zurgenfeldt Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 I bought 10K of this stock a couple months ago. I only wish it would dip down again so I could snap up another 100K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 C-Corp conversion is a really big deal ... plus higher oil prices help. Plus the trust now has close to ~$400M in cash on the b/s and zero debt (~$55 per share in cash) ... so I think some people are expecting a nice payout or dutch offer at somepoint. I'd prefer that the trust just retire units like it has done so for the past 80+ years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haasje Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 I think they want to accelerate the water business right? Takes some cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunny Bunny Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Accelerate water rights biz? Just buy PICO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Ive said it before and Ill say it again, but Im surprised at how many people are in favor of the changes being made/suggested. Theres a saying if it aint broke dont fix it...Not only was this not broken, but it was glorious example of something so unique and largely uncorrupted. Was there much of anything that did better than TPL? With less operational risk? Yes the trustees were scumbags so that has to change. But transforming this from what it was, into an operating company who is making acquisitions, taking on risks, and burning resources on G&A? IDK, seems like an unnecessary risk to me. Additionally, water rights arent the easiest of businesses either...just go look at PICO and its history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 What acquisitions have they made? Moving to a C-Corp will allow shareholders to VOTE current management OUT, and get in new trustees who are more aligned with TPL's original mission (self liquidation). Talk about idiots luck ... 90 years+ on reducing split-adjusted sharecount from something like 500,000,000 shares o/s to 7.7million - while net income basically exploded. I'm all for keeping the original TPL - but you need modern governance. Will be an interesting next few quarters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Q4 results looked pretty solid. A little throwback entertainment to May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 https://seekingalpha.com/news/3544733-texas-pacific-land-trust-declares-10_00-dividend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Anyone watching this at these levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Anyone watching this at these levels? Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Anyone watching this at these levels? Yup Added a few shares at 500. Could bite me in the ass, but I still like the long game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sombunall Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sombunall Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 Just five shale drillers—Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, and Crownquest—can drill new wells at a profit at $31 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate. [The first 3 are TPL producers] The situation is more positive for drilled but uncompleted wells, according to Rystad. The consultancy said yesterday that as much as 80 percent of DUCs in the U.S. shale patch have a breakeven price of less than $25 per barrel of WTI. [TPL has nearly 500 DUCs] https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Only-5-Shale-Drillers-Are-Still-Profitable-At-31-Oil.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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