petec Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Might there be a regulatory/capital impact on FFH of buying Home (as there is on BRK if they go over I think 10% of WFC)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBW Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 There may be. Reality there is no chance ffh buys. Ppl dont realize that if pe is buying mortgage assets it will be way below par like 90cents or less as yield only 4%. At 90 or below equity is a 0. Also there is shareholder lawsuits, who buys that liability? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Agreed. Looked like a very speculative article to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Dont be so sure .... This is Canada, there is close regulatory involvement, & it will be a made-in-Canada solution. To arrive at a reasonable price you need multiple bidders - from both sides of the border; & we know they have big friends. Money is not the limitation (everyone has it), a safe place to temporarily pass it through is. FFH has to be high on the list of safe names, & this is what they do - especially if it also comes with a backstopped exit plan. It is also highly likely that todays meeting was delayed, in part, because a conclusion is expected in the next week or so. Per disclosure, we continue to hold our shares. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 FFH has to be high on the list of safe names, & this is what they do - especially if it also comes with a backstopped exit plan. They could sell it on to Eurobank? ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Given FFH expects a housing crash in Canada I would be shocked if they were involved (whole or part) in purchasing or even bailing out HCG. I think FFH is expecting the big 5 to get hit big when the housing bubble pops; HCG would do even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Jr. Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 I imagine that dividend is gone. I doubt they really have a choice when borrowing short-term money at 15-22%... On a similar note, Equitable Group's shiny new 2B standby credit line came with a 0.75% "commitment fee" = 15M (over 1/3 of their net income), and the interest rate is "bank cost of capital + 1.5%". What is the banks "cost of capital" in this context? Is it their WACC? That would make their interest rate north of 12% - 13%? If so they're borrowing high and lending low if they draw down on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalfMeasure Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 I imagine that dividend is gone. I doubt they really have a choice when borrowing short-term money at 15-22%... On a similar note, Equitable Group's shiny new 2B standby credit line came with a 0.75% "commitment fee" = 15M (over 1/3 of their net income), and the interest rate is "bank cost of capital + 1.5%". What is the banks "cost of capital" in this context? Is it their WACC? That would make their interest rate north of 12% - 13%? If so they're borrowing high and lending low if they draw down on that. It's the cost the banks borrow at, essentially the 1.5% is their spread on it if they fund it with their own debt (i.e. renting balance sheet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Given FFH expects a housing crash in Canada I would be shocked if they were involved (whole or part) in purchasing or even bailing out HCG. I think FFH is expecting the big 5 to get hit big when the housing bubble pops; HCG would do even worse. But if they were indemnified against such a potential loss ... & received a market based incentive for temporarily warehousing HCG? ... it's a very different proposition. It just needs a 'neutral' to head a consortium; the consortium members themselves could quite easily be the big 6. Our short friends don't want to hear it because 1) it's screwing up the plan, 2) it's a very viable rabbit outside their influence, & 3) anyone targeting FFH risks getting tarred with the SAC brush - demonstrating that the influence practices SAC is being charged with, are still alive & well. So .... try & kill the babe while its still in the crib, & do it quickly while its still under intensive care. The uncomfortable reality is that HCG is still walking; & the short raid is an ice cube with a rapid melt rate. HCG had to have been knee-capped by Friday last week, & they failed to do it. Watch the call premiums on HCG stock. At some point all shorted stock has to get bought back, & to avoid getting burned the sellers will need a lot of call options ;) For us HCG is just a modest trading position; what happens, happens - but it will be in a more fair(ish) market. Of course .... we live on the wrong side of the border! SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Why would a consortium of the big 5(NBC isn't into this kind of stuff) need FFH in there? HCG is minuscule compared to any of the big 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 It is highly unlikely that OSFI would let HCG go to one of the big 6 - as it would be interference in the market. Additionally if OSFI actually wanted sub-prime eliminated - they would have done it long ago. Hence, the logical policy solution suggests a separate (temporary?) 'pillar' of sub-prime FI's under tighter, & more specific, regulation. A banking solution to a banking problem. Agreed the big 5 do not need the neutral, the regulator does; and were this to occur it would be a regulatory brokered solution. The big 5 involvement would be to just spread the risk, take out HOOPP, & contain the whole thing within the banking sector. Elegant, practical, & zero risk to the neutral. And FFH as the neutral; as they are a well qualified Canadian FI under OSFI regulation, that doesn't do banking (ie: neutral in both fact AND name). Not much different to WEB buying a chunk of GS to prevent its collapse. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Jr. Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 On a similar note, Equitable Group's shiny new 2B standby credit line came with a 0.75% "commitment fee" = 15M (over 1/3 of their net income), and the interest rate is "bank cost of capital + 1.5%". What is the banks "cost of capital" in this context? Is it their WACC? That would make their interest rate north of 12% - 13%? If so they're borrowing high and lending low if they draw down on that. It's the cost the banks borrow at, essentially the 1.5% is their spread on it if they fund it with their own debt (i.e. renting balance sheet). But what is that cost? what range is it in? I'm trying to figure out what the interest rate will actually be for EG if/when they draw down on that credit line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beardog Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 EQB's interest rate on the drawn portion should be 3-mo CDOR, which is currently 0.86%, plus 1.25%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Jr. Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 EQB's interest rate on the drawn portion should be 3-mo CDOR, which is currently 0.86%, plus 1.25%. That's what I was looking for, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 We're out at 6.70. Comes a time when the smart thing is to cut it loose. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Looks like FFH, among others, have passed on HCG (not surprising considering their views on real estate in Canada): https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-05-05/inside-canada-s-push-to-contain-the-fallout-from-home-capital Home Capital has hired investment bankers for a possible sale, though buyers are scarce -- banks, pensions funds and private equity firms such as J.C. Flowers & Co. and Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. have so far passed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Home Capital Sells $1.1 Billion in Mortgages to Third Party [Who? Mystery] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-09/home-capital-sells-1-1-billion-in-mortgages-to-third-party Guessing they probably had to sell their best mortgages to raise capital, leaving them with an even worse book on average.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beardog Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Home Capital Sells $1.1 Billion in Mortgages to Third Party [Who? Mystery] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-09/home-capital-sells-1-1-billion-in-mortgages-to-third-party Guessing they probably had to sell their best mortgages to raise capital, leaving them with an even worse book on average.. Also doesn't disclose the price they sold the mortgages at, which I'd guess HCG would be happy to say in their press release if they were sold at/near par. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 We're out at 6.70. Comes a time when the smart thing is to cut it loose. SD What changed your mind(s)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 We're out at 6.70. Comes a time when the smart thing is to cut it loose. SD What changed your mind(s)? We had a minimum 10% gain threshold & took the bird in hand. Kicking ourselves today! Ultimately we're now pretty sure they will be sold, versus broken up - but it's a lot harder to assess. Good luck! SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Home Capital Sells $1.1 Billion in Mortgages to Third Party [Who? Mystery] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-09/home-capital-sells-1-1-billion-in-mortgages-to-third-party Guessing they probably had to sell their best mortgages to raise capital, leaving them with an even worse book on average.. Chinese foreign investor? 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gurpaul88 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 TORONTO, May 9, 2017 /CNW/ - Home Capital Group Inc. ("The Company" TSX: HCG) today announced that its subsidiary, Home Trust, has entered into an arrangement with an independent third party (the "Third Party") that wishes to purchase funded mortgages or accept mortgage commitments and renewals up to a total of $1.5 billion. The Third Party has indicated its non-binding intention to Purchase as much as $1 billion in qualifying uninsured mortgages, with an immediate interest in purchasing or accepting commitments and/or renewals for up to half of that amount, or $500 million; and Purchase or accept commitments for up to $500 million in insured mortgages, subject to appropriate documentation. The Third Party has also indicated an interest in further expansion of this arrangement at a later date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpha Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 CIBC is now one of the biggest shareholders of Home Capital with ~15% stake: https://www.bloomberg.com//news/articles/2017-05-10/cibc-triples-home-capital-stake-to-become-among-largest-holders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 CIBC is now one of the biggest shareholders of Home Capital with ~15% stake: https://www.bloomberg.com//news/articles/2017-05-10/cibc-triples-home-capital-stake-to-become-among-largest-holders Well that was predictable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 I think the fact that the big banks participated in the equitable syndicate suggests to me that Home Capital might be allowed to fail as an example of moral hazard (at least for equity investors) while the wagons get circled around everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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