jwelborn93 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Seth Klarman just doubled his position in the company and now owns about 10% of the s/o. It now amounts to about 25% of his equity portfolio. I saw that this company hasn't been mentioned much on the board, and was wondering if anyone had any specific thoughts. It has obviously had a very successful recent past, but a search on other forums such as VIC show that the value investing community have a wide variety of opinions towards the company. It is a very difficult company to value, but as I'm starting to learn more about it I wanted to see if I could pick your brains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
constructive Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 They have a ton of debt, and a complex ownership structure that involves paying huge dividends to their LPs and absurd management compensation. Even though the contracts are very big, I don't think enough cash will drop to LNG's bottom line to justify a $16B valuation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawn619 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Seth Klarman just doubled his position in the company and now owns about 10% of the s/o. It now amounts to about 25% of his equity portfolio. I saw that this company hasn't been mentioned much on the board, and was wondering if anyone had any specific thoughts. It has obviously had a very successful recent past, but a search on other forums such as VIC show that the value investing community have a wide variety of opinions towards the company. It is a very difficult company to value, but as I'm starting to learn more about it I wanted to see if I could pick your brains. The contract/revenue numbers are pretty big, around 4.5B in revenues for the next 3/4 years. With another LNG plant in the works. As constructive said. Management loves to dilute the stock and LNG has a ton of debt. would like to see a more thorough analysis though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawn619 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The CEO made around $142 million in compensation last year. the highest of any CEO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawn619 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Seth Klarman just doubled his position in the company and now owns about 10% of the s/o. It now amounts to about 25% of his equity portfolio. I saw that this company hasn't been mentioned much on the board, and was wondering if anyone had any specific thoughts. It has obviously had a very successful recent past, but a search on other forums such as VIC show that the value investing community have a wide variety of opinions towards the company. It is a very difficult company to value, but as I'm starting to learn more about it I wanted to see if I could pick your brains. also where do you see that he has a 25% stake? the latest i see is 15% stake from the November 13f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwelborn93 Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 Seth Klarman just doubled his position in the company and now owns about 10% of the s/o. It now amounts to about 25% of his equity portfolio. I saw that this company hasn't been mentioned much on the board, and was wondering if anyone had any specific thoughts. It has obviously had a very successful recent past, but a search on other forums such as VIC show that the value investing community have a wide variety of opinions towards the company. It is a very difficult company to value, but as I'm starting to learn more about it I wanted to see if I could pick your brains. also where do you see that he has a 25% stake? the latest i see is 15% stake from the November 13f That was just a quick estimate based on the fact that the below 13G disclosed that he more than doubled his shared count-- 11.19m --> 24.8m-- but also accounting for the fact that the share price had dropped since the 13F you referenced. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3570/000114036115001250/doc1.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Considering Klarman is managing about 27B fund and he has 1.6B in LNG alone. It's a pretty big size of his overall portfolio. Can anyone shed some lights on what kind of value Klarman sees in LNG? Maybe a big downside protection with the longterm contracts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawn619 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I didn't do that much research into it but It has a 16Billion market cap and around 3 billion/year in protected contracts alone as well as a markup on NG they ship. Right now natural gas prices in Asian and Europe are 3-4x times of that in the U.S and in the next few years the spread on gas prices between the continents is likely to decrease. It's kind of like an arbitrage where being the first mover is a huge advantage. Management has proved very capable by finishing a lot of it's projects early. It does have a lot of debt and it's likely that shareholders will get diluted through it's incentive plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawn619 Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Icahn takes a 8% stake, Seth Klarman has 20% of his equity portfolio into this. I've been trying to figure this out for a while but it's really complicated to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 Icahn takes a 8% stake, Seth Klarman has 20% of his equity portfolio into this. I've been trying to figure this out for a while but it's really complicated to say the least Imagine a high yielding coupon bond with inflation hedges in place. Wallah, you got LNG. Yield right now is around 20% give or take. Risks: customers default on LNG and take or pay contracts not enforceable. Opportunity: stable predictable cash flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KinAlberta Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 Cheniere shares are undervalued: Icahn http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000404333&play=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 How are you getting an inflation linked 20% yield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 How are you getting an inflation linked 20% yield? Model out the cash flow they are going to get assuming all the trains are built and contracted out - expenses - interest cost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Chanos Battles Carl Icahn Over Cheniere as ‘Disaster’ Looms http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-09/chanos-shorts-icahn-backed-cheniere-calling-it-looming-disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayGatsby Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 This came out last week. Pretty interesting, although it won't help too much with valuation: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-09-02/america-s-most-unlikely-energy-project-is-rising-from-a-louisiana-bayou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cogitator99 Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 How are you getting an inflation linked 20% yield? Model out the cash flow they are going to get assuming all the trains are built and contracted out - expenses - interest cost. Care to share your work on this Wilson? Am not getting to 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabuff Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Seems like Icahn and Klarman continue to add to their positions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 http://imgur.com/V9atOnN. They cant get production up fast enough. These five facilities make up 1/5 of the total proposed liquefaction capacity that has been announced in the US and, once built, will represent around 10% of the world’s liquefaction capacity. I think this is worth some serious consideration. Does anyone have any ideas where to look for LNG statistics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eye4Valu Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Guarantor credit ratings on the contracts look good. Even get paid during events of force majeure on some.Not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Guarantor credit ratings on the contracts look good. Even get paid during events of force majeure on some.Not bad at all. Right. My questions would be if these are enough for current valuation. And what are expected expenditures. BTW, the company structure looks ugly from the first glance. What's the certainty that shareholders get much (most?) of earnings? Disclaimer: just glanced at imgur and 10Q. No deep DD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Guarantor credit ratings on the contracts look good. Even get paid during events of force majeure on some.Not bad at all. Right. My questions would be if these are enough for current valuation. And what are expected expenditures. BTW, the company structure looks ugly from the first glance. What's the certainty thath shareholders get much (most?) of earnings? Disclaimer: just glanced at imgur and 10Q. No deep DD. I kinda like the ugliness. I means a lot of people are put off by it. I put in for a paper copy of the reports and am going to look into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Cheniere Chief Souki to Depart as Icahn Boosts Stake, FT Says http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-13/cheniere-chief-souki-to-depart-as-icahn-boosts-stake-ft-says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 It sounds like theres not a lot of bad blood. http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2015/12/15/cheniere-energy-ceo-fired-by-icahn-this-was-my-baby/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evolveus Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Baupost ups stake in LNG http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061768/000114036116047276/0001140361-16-047276-index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Baupost ups stake in LNG http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061768/000114036116047276/0001140361-16-047276-index.htm Damit. Beat me to it. On page 5 of the last annual report are a list of a bunch of contracts....are the actual contracts located somewhere? Its probably confidential material but would be fun to read them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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