fareastwarriors Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Cheniere Energy’s shipment turns US into gas exporter Momentous step for US energy industry that is marred by poor LNG pricing amid oil rout http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f1773832-b5ee-11e5-b147-e5e5bba42e51.html#axzz3wrq5URdt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Investors double down on a losing energy bet Cheniere Energy keeps losing value, as big hedge fund investors continue building out their positions. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/01/investors-double-down-on-a-losing-energy-bet.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bksimon Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Negative equity of -$640 million as of Q3. Current ratio is fine, but plant, prop, equip makes up over 80% of assets, and the equipment has to be worth less in this market environment, so assets may be overstated here. In which case the company would be even more underwater than it appears. As a caveat, I'm not familiar with this company's financials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Negative equity of -$640 million as of Q3. Current ratio is fine, but plant, prop, equip makes up over 80% of assets, and the equipment has to be worth less in this market environment, so assets may be overstated here. In which case the company would be even more underwater than it appears. As a caveat, I'm not familiar with this company's financials. I hate to say this...but icahn and Baupost have to see something in it. I find it very weird that even as recently as the beginning of the year they have bought. So much for premature accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 One other thing... Carl mentioned that it LNG should be an MLP. I know that Baupost has had extensive MLP experience with BBEP 5 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest neiljgsingh Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Up over 40% since last post. Most recent earnings: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=101667&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2140965 Anyone taking another look? Baupost still in the red as of last 13-F but getting close to cost basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex.N.B Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1383650/000138365011000070/exhibit101-bglngsaleandpur.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MYDemaray Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 Baupost ups stake in LNG http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061768/000114036116047276/0001140361-16-047276-index.htm Damit. Beat me to it. On page 5 of the last annual report are a list of a bunch of contracts....are the actual contracts located somewhere? Its probably confidential material but would be fun to read them. Getting to this discussion late so you've probably already found them. If not: Customer BG Gulf Coast LNG BG Gulf Coast LNG, LLC (“BG”) has entered into an SPA that commences upon the date of first commercial delivery for Train 1 and includes an annual contract quantity of 182,500,000 MMBtu of LNG with a fixed fee of $2.25 per MMBtu and includes additional annual contract quantities of 36,500,000 MMBtu, 34,000,000 MMBtu, and 33,500,000 MMBtu upon the date of first commercial delivery for Trains 2, 3 and 4, respectively, with a fixed fee of $3.00 per MMBtu. The total expected annual contracted cash flow from BG from fixed fees is approximately $723 million. In addition, Sabine Pass Liquefaction has agreed to make up to 500,000 MMBtu/d of LNG available to BG to the extent that Train 1 becomes commercially operable prior to the beginning of the first delivery window with a fixed fee of $2.25 per MMBtu, if produced. The obligations of BG are guaranteed by BG Energy Holdings Limited, a company organized under the laws of England and Wales. Amended and Restated Sale and Purchase Agreement http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1383650/000138365012000006/0001383650-12-000006-index.htm Gas Natural Aprovisionamientos ("Gas Natural Fenmosa") Gas Natural Aprovisionamientos SDG S.A. (“Gas Natural Fenosa”) has entered into an SPA that commences upon the date of first commercial delivery for Train 2 and includes an annual contract quantity of 182,500,000 MMBtu of LNG with a fixed fee of $2.49 per MMBtu, equating to expected annual contracted cash flow from fixed fees of approximately $454 million. In addition, Sabine Pass Liquefaction has agreed to make up to 285,000 MMBtu/d of LNG available to Gas Natural Fenosa to the extent that Train 2 becomes commercially operable prior to the beginning of the first delivery window with a fixed fee of $2.49 per MMBtu, if produced. The obligations of Gas Natural Fenosa are guaranteed by Gas Natural SDG S.A., a company organized under the laws of Spain. Sale and Purchase Agreement http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1383650/000138365011000079/exhibit101gasnaturallngsal.htm Amendment 1 http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1383650/000138365013000051/cqp20131stqtrex101.htm Korea Gas Company ("KOGAS") Korea Gas Corporation (“KOGAS”) has entered into an SPA that commences upon the date of first commercial delivery for Train 3 and includes an annual contract quantity of 182,500,000 MMBtu of LNG with a fixed fee of $3.00 per MMBtu, equating to expected annual contracted cash flow from fixed fees of approximately $548 million. KOGAS is organized under the laws of the Republic of Korea. Sale and Purchase Agreement http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1383650/000138365012000009/0001383650-12-000009-index.htm Amendment 1 http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1383650/000138365013000017/exhibit1019kogasspaamendme.htm GAIL (India) Limited ("GAIL") GAIL (India) Limited (“GAIL”) has entered into an SPA that commences upon the date of first commercial delivery for Train 4 and includes an annual contract quantity of 182,500,000 MMBtu of LNG with a fixed fee of $3.00 per MMBtu, equating to expected annual contracted cash flow from fixed fees of approximately $548 million. GAIL is organized under the laws of India. Sale and Purchase Agreement http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1383650/000138365011000083/exhibit101gaillngsaleandpu.htm Amendment 1 http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1383650/000138365013000017/exhibit1018gailspaamendment.htm Total Total has entered into an SPA that commences upon the date of first commercial delivery for Train 5 and includes an annual contract quantity of 104,750,000 MMBtu of LNG with a fixed fee of $3.00 per MMBtu, equating to expected annual contracted cash flow from fixed fees of approximately $314 million. The obligations of Total are guaranteed by Total S.A., a company organized under the laws of France. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1383650/000138365012000153/exhibit101totalspa.htm#s12305613ABAB64DD08EB9B92DB8F3E01 Centrica Centrica plc (“Centrica”) has entered into an SPA that commences upon the date of first commercial delivery for Train 5 and includes an annual contract quantity of 91,250,000 MMBtu of LNG with a fixed fee of $3.00 per MMBtu, equating to expected annual contracted cash flow from fixed fees of approximately $274 million. Centrica is organized under the laws of England and Wales. Sale and Purchase Agreement http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1383650/000138365013000038/0001383650-13-000038-index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1383650/000138365011000070/exhibit991pressrelease-bgl.htm CHENIERE ENERGY PARTNERS, L.P. NEWS RELEASE Cheniere and BG Sign 20-Year LNG Sale and Purchase Agreement ▪ Cheniere signs first customer for LNG sales at Sabine Pass Terminal ▪ BG contracts for approximately 3.5 million tonnes per annum of LNG Houston, Texas - October 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1383650/000138365011000070/cqp8-kbgliquefactionagreem.htm Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Anyone know if LNG will have to raise cash this year because of their $1,666 due 2016 (7.50%) debt? Or was the debt raise used to pay down this year's debt? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cheniere-energy-unit-closes-senior-133101751.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Anyone know if LNG will have to raise cash this year because of their $1,666 due 2016 (7.50%) debt? Or was the debt raise used to pay down this year's debt? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cheniere-energy-unit-closes-senior-133101751.html This was resolved several months ago (link below) http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=101667&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2143785 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Wondering where all the Cheniere bulls have gone? Is this thing set up as a pound the table. Double in the next few years. It seems like SP trains are up and running. Additional capacity coming. CC trains likely to be running in 2019. Debt financing coming up is the only question mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
constructive Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Is there an arbitrage here? LNG seems pretty expensive compared to CQP and CQH. Sabine Pass has around twice the capacity of Corpus Christi, yet CQP has an enterprise value of $24B versus LNG ex-CQP at $26B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NBL0303 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Is there an arbitrage here? LNG seems pretty expensive compared to CQP and CQH. Sabine Pass has around twice the capacity of Corpus Christi, yet CQP has an enterprise value of $24B versus LNG ex-CQP at $26B. It is definitely an interesting question. It is not straight forward, it took longer to parse the entity structure of this than any other investment I have ever participated in - like hundreds of hours just on that one aspect of it. Which entity is worth the most relates to many variables, including how much will Cheniere Marketing make, which accretes value to LNG but not CQP, and many other variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
constructive Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Is there an arbitrage here? LNG seems pretty expensive compared to CQP and CQH. Sabine Pass has around twice the capacity of Corpus Christi, yet CQP has an enterprise value of $24B versus LNG ex-CQP at $26B. It is definitely an interesting question. It is not straight forward, it took longer to parse the entity structure of this than any other investment I have ever participated in - like hundreds of hours just on that one aspect of it. Which entity is worth the most relates to many variables, including how much will Cheniere Marketing make, which accretes value to LNG but not CQP, and many other variables. What's your conclusion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awindenberger Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Is there an arbitrage here? LNG seems pretty expensive compared to CQP and CQH. Sabine Pass has around twice the capacity of Corpus Christi, yet CQP has an enterprise value of $24B versus LNG ex-CQP at $26B. It is definitely an interesting question. It is not straight forward, it took longer to parse the entity structure of this than any other investment I have ever participated in - like hundreds of hours just on that one aspect of it. Which entity is worth the most relates to many variables, including how much will Cheniere Marketing make, which accretes value to LNG but not CQP, and many other variables. If you think LNG complex was complicated, take a look at French company Bollore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 ValueMaven bought a little LNG yesterday around $48!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Good for you ValueMaven. I have sold a previous position in this company because I made a good return and didn't feel that I had a handle on the complexity of the story. (thank you NBL for the idea) I read a book when I was very young called "sam weinstein's secrets for profiting in bull and bear markets" - it was basically a book on technical analysis and perfect for a teenager who doesn't know anything about anything but likes to look at pictures. Despite years of distance from that book, I can't help but see sam weinstein's pictures from time to time. The current chart of LNG stock is one of those 'sam weinstein' moments. It's probably too 'perfect' to work - but it's a thing of beauty according to sam weinstien's 1988 book. sam would set a stop loss. seth klarman, who doesn't look at the pictures to my knowledge, has been selling recently - for what it's worth.. ValueMaven bought a little LNG yesterday around $48!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 Is anyone still invested in or working on Cheniere? I just finished reading the investor day transcript. It's hard to get comfortable with the possibility of hurricane damage and/or flooding doing major damage to the Sabine Pass site. At the recent investor day presentation one of the presenters mentioned that the site's soil had the consistency of "axle grease" before they reinforced it.....so it is literally built in a swamp. Jim Chanos made comments to similar effect several years ago. Also, the investment thesis is largely predicated on (1) extremely long 20 year contractual revenues and (2) LNG trains with anticipated 30 or 40+ year lifespans. Could global warming cause the Sabine Pass site to be underwater by then? LNG trains in other areas have had very long lifespans, but no one has ever built LNG trains in South Louisiana before. Finally, I can't get comfortable with management simultaneously saying "Cheniere is a great investment opportunity" and "look at all these really, really hard and complex things we're doing." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 This is getting cheap again. Management have executed superbly and 7 trains are now running with an eighth coming in 2021 and a ninth in 2023. They are also looking at Corpus Stage 3, which is 5-7 smaller trains at the CC site which may be FID’d this year and running by 2025. CCS3 is highly competitive as it leverages existing infrastructure and is supplied by cheap associated gas from the Permian. Based on the mid point of the run rate guidance ranges for these expansions, the stock is on 7x 2021, 6.2x 2023, and 4.9x 2025. They are already buying back stock and paying down debt. They’re also de-levering by using less debt on growth projects than they have on the existing assets. Debt costs are coming down and they aim to get to investment grade in the next year or so. In 5 years you’re on a 20% DCF yield, with less debt and a substantially reduced share count. Looks like a double to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 It's probably worth mentioning why it has sold down: Citing the coronavirus, CNOOC has invoked force majeure on some LNG contracts. Global LNG prices are very low right now, which very well may be the true rationale for the decision. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-06/chinese-gas-buyer-cnooc-declares-force-majeure-on-lng-contracts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 It's probably worth mentioning why it has sold down: Citing the coronavirus, CNOOC has invoked force majeure on some LNG contracts. Global LNG prices are very low right now, which very well may be the true rationale for the decision. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-06/chinese-gas-buyer-cnooc-declares-force-majeure-on-lng-contracts That’s the reason for the sell off to $56 and change, yes. But presumably it’s temporary, and even before that the stock was looking cheap in the low sixties. The last conference call is a good intro to the supply and demand outlook for anyone interested. In short, a flood of LNG capacity came online over the last few years but is mainly done. Demand is growing strongly and few projects come online after 2020. So the contracting environment is likely to be healthy. Cheniere have limited exposure to the commodity price itself, but that helps them ink new contracts and grow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awindenberger Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Man I was thinking it had dropped under $50 the way you were talking. At $56 the price is no lower than a year ago, and only a couple bucks lower than during the summer. I tend to agree with your thesis but doesn't scream cheap to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 bought some today ... seems like an overeaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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