premfan Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 I have opened a position in PCLN. The travel booking market is very large at $1.4 trillion and only 40% of it is online. This makes me believe a lot of growth might still be in store for the next 5-10 years. And PCLN surely is the market leader. What do people here think about the threat of larger players like AMZN and FB entering the travel booking market and driving margins down? Cheers, Gio With the intention stated to "control" the whole user travel experience. Airbnb would seem to be the greatest threat near term and long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clutch Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 I really don't see any clear moat for anyone in this space... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 I really don't see any clear moat for anyone in this space... Do you believe that PCLN's network of 584.000 traditional hotel properties is a relatively easy thing to replicate? Expedia which is its largest competitor has a network of 385.000 hotels. Much smaller. On the demand side this translated into 174 million rooms booked in Q1 2017 for PCLN vs. 64 million for Expedia, a huge difference! And that's why I asked about truly large players (AMZN and FB), because they surely have the resources to build networks as strong as PCLN's. Smaller players (Airbnb included) might try but with much greater difficulties. What am I missing here? Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clutch Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 I don't know if those numbers have any significance - at least based on my personal experience. When I search for hotels these days, I seem to be getting pretty much the same results from priceline, expedia, hotels.com, booking.com, tripadvisor, etc. Same availability, only slightly different prices. So I just do a search on google, which lets me compare prices from all these different websites. I might do a more depth search at a particular site, but really have no preference. Theoretically, the bigger network of PCLN is supposed to give more options to the customer. But when is this actually important when booking hotels? Does this give customers a better chance to find the best deal or the exact hotel they are looking for? I'm not really sure. In fact, I think the best hotel options for any given criteria can now be found in any of the travel websites nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
premfan Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 I really don't see any clear moat for anyone in this space... Do you believe that PCLN's network of 584.000 traditional hotel properties is a relatively easy thing to replicate? Expedia which is its largest competitor has a network of 385.000 hotels. Much smaller. On the demand side this translated into 174 million rooms booked in Q1 2017 for PCLN vs. 64 million for Expedia, a huge difference! And that's why I asked about truly large players (AMZN and FB), because they surely have the resources to build networks as strong as PCLN's. Smaller players (Airbnb included) might try but with much greater difficulties. What am I missing here? Cheers, Gio The question is the answer. Nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 You might be right, clutch! Usually I try not to judge the future prospects of a business based on my personal preferences. What you say sounds reasonable and probably that's what I do too. But then again our preferences cannot explain why 147 million rooms were booked using PCLN's sites during Q1 2017. Apps should also be considered: I don't use them to book rooms, but evidently many people do. And PCLN's apps are by far the most widely used. Thank you for all your inputs! Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 BTW, PCLN has been doing business for 20 years next month. And it still generates fcf which is 33% of revenue. How could you enjoy such high margins for such a long time without some kind of moat? I don't know. Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 BTW, PCLN has been doing business for 20 years next month. And it still generates fcf which is 33% of revenue. How could you enjoy such high margins for such a long time without some kind of moat? I don't know. Cheers, Gio PCLN today is very different from PCLN 20 years ago, though. They acquired Booking.com in 2005, for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 No doubt, Liberty! Anyway even 10 years of very high margins in a business world that changes faster and faster are difficult to explain without some kind of durable competitive advantage. It is pretty brutal out there! Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 Another threat to PCLN’s business model might be posed by the Blockchain technology. The excerpt in attachment is from “Blockchain Revolution” by Don Tapscott, which I am reading. Overall I see two secular trends as powerful tailwinds for PCLN: 1) The travel industry will continue to grow meaningfully for the foreseeable future, 2) The industry will continue to shift towards online and mobile transactions. PCLN is the n.1 company globally and therefore it is the business that will benefit most from those trends. I also see two possible threats: 1) AMZN, FB, GOOGL (and maybe Airbnb), 2) the Blockchain technology. Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 Short interview with the new CEO: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-07-18/priceline-ceo-on-strategy-competition-and-china-video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Expedia, Priceline Home In on Airbnb’s Turf Online travel giants are boosting inventory of home-rental options that can be booked similarly to a hotel, with just a few clicks https://www.wsj.com/articles/expedia-priceline-home-in-on-airbnbs-turf-1500888600 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 Q2: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/PCLN/2920502728x0x953110/CED00750-E1B6-4D66-8773-703A1E6EEEA1/PCLN_Group_Earnings_Release_Q217.pdf gross travel bookings were $20.8 billion, an increase of 16% over a year ago (approximately 19% on a constant-currency basis). gross profit was $3.0 billion, a 21% increase from the prior year (approximately 24% on a constant-currency basis) International operations contributed gross profit in the 2nd quarter of $2.6 billion, a 24% increase versus a year ago (approximately 26% on a constant-currency basis) Net income was $720 million, a 24% increase versus the prior year. Net income was $14.39 per diluted share, a 24% increase as compared to the prior year. Non-GAAP net income in the 2nd quarter was $758 million, a 20% increase versus the prior year. Non-GAAP net income was $15.14 per diluted share, a 20% increase compared to $12.59 per diluted share a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA for the 2nd quarter 2017 was $974 million, a 20% increase versus a year ago. "Globally, our accommodation business booked 170 million room nights in the quarter, up 21% over the same period last year." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 AirBNB trying to compete with OpenTable: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-20/airbnb-adds-restaurant-reservations-to-compete-with-priceline I guess we'll see if the existing two-sided network at scale has as strong a moat as it seems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 AirBNB trying to compete with OpenTable: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-20/airbnb-adds-restaurant-reservations-to-compete-with-priceline I guess we'll see if the existing two-sided network at scale has as strong a moat as it seems... Totally anecdotally but I have been seeing more restaurants use Yelp for reservations in my area (SF, CA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 AirBnB should add AirLnD service where people would provide lunch/dinner to strangers in their dining rooms (or kitchens). You heard it here first . Send royalties to widows and orphans trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 ‘Priceline Group CEO Glenn Fogel at Skift Global Forum 2017’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Priceline investing 450m in Meituan: https://www.tnooz.com/article/priceline-group-hedges-its-chinese-bets-with-meituan-travel-tie-up/ https://skift.com/2017/10/19/priceline-invests-450-million-in-chinese-e-commerce-giant-meituan-dianping/ The Series C round has been led by another Chinese behemoth, Tencent. Meituan-Dianping was created in 2015 when group buying platform Meituan merged with reviews platform Dianping. Its 280 million active customers are able to access restaurant reservations, on-demand delivery, hotel and travel bookings and entertainment options through a single mobile application. It launched Meituan Travel earlier this year. Certainly follows what Fogel said to Skift about China... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Q3: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/PCLN/2920502728x0x962889/085B23FA-7D11-46BA-85FC-DA6991036641/PCLN_Group_Earnings_Release_Q317.pdf Third quarter gross travel bookings for The Priceline Group (the "Company," the "Group," "we," "our" or "us"), which refers to the total dollar value, generally inclusive of taxes and fees, of all travel services booked by its customers, net of cancellations, were $21.8 billion, an increase of 18% over a year ago (approximately 16% on a constant-currency basis). The Group's gross profit for the 3rd quarter was $4.4 billion, a 22% increase from the prior year (approximately 19% on a constant-currency basis). International operations contributed gross profit in the 3rd quarter of $4.0 billion, a 23% increase versus a year ago (approximately 20% on a constant-currency basis). Net income in the 3rd quarter was $1.7 billion, a 240% increase versus the prior year, which included a $941 million goodwill impairment charge. Net income was $34.43 per diluted share, a 240% increase as compared to the prior year. Non-GAAP net income in the 3rd quarter was $1.8 billion, a 19% increase versus the prior year. Non-GAAP net income was $35.22 per diluted share, a 19% increase compared to $29.69 per diluted share a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA for the 3rd quarter was $2.2 billion, an 18% increase versus a year ago. Stock down after hour on Q4 guidance which is a bit soft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Cameron Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Q3: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/PCLN/2920502728x0x962889/085B23FA-7D11-46BA-85FC-DA6991036641/PCLN_Group_Earnings_Release_Q317.pdf Third quarter gross travel bookings for The Priceline Group (the "Company," the "Group," "we," "our" or "us"), which refers to the total dollar value, generally inclusive of taxes and fees, of all travel services booked by its customers, net of cancellations, were $21.8 billion, an increase of 18% over a year ago (approximately 16% on a constant-currency basis). The Group's gross profit for the 3rd quarter was $4.4 billion, a 22% increase from the prior year (approximately 19% on a constant-currency basis). International operations contributed gross profit in the 3rd quarter of $4.0 billion, a 23% increase versus a year ago (approximately 20% on a constant-currency basis). Net income in the 3rd quarter was $1.7 billion, a 240% increase versus the prior year, which included a $941 million goodwill impairment charge. Net income was $34.43 per diluted share, a 240% increase as compared to the prior year. Non-GAAP net income in the 3rd quarter was $1.8 billion, a 19% increase versus the prior year. Non-GAAP net income was $35.22 per diluted share, a 19% increase compared to $29.69 per diluted share a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA for the 3rd quarter was $2.2 billion, an 18% increase versus a year ago. Stock down after hour on Q4 guidance which is a bit soft. Doesn't it seem like most companies have reported weak Q4's guidence? Or is that just me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Doesn't it seem like most companies have reported weak Q4's guidence? Or is that just me I've been noticing the same thing with many of the names I follow. Seem to want to lower expectations, which is rarely a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Looking more closely at things, it seems like the weaker guidance is in good part caused by the YoY comp (Q4 2016 was +31%) and by the fact that they're investing more in branded advertising to get more direct business and temporarily growing opex faster than revenues right now (hence the deleverage). This seems like a good way to invest in the future, because margins on direct should be much higher than if you get it through other channels. They also tend to beat their own guidance, so we'll see next Q how they do... Properties still growing nicely: As of September 30, Booking.com had over 816,000 vacation rental properties, which was a 58% year-over-year growth rate. These listings are fully integrated into our marketplace with the same booking path and the same great customer service. [...] In total, Booking.com had 1.5 million instantly bookable properties on its platform as of September 30, which was a 41% year-over-year growth rate and represented approximately 26.9 million potentially bookable rooms. [...] Though the mix is shifting to more vacation rentals with fewer rooms per property. YTD: Year-to-date free cash flow amounted to almost $3.3 billion, growing by 20% compared to the prior year. About 34% of our gross profit converts to free cash flow In Q4 last year they had about 1.05bn of FCF, so at current price, PCLN is selling for around 19x FCF without adjusting for cash or anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rishig Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 https://skift.com/2017/11/20/inside-priceline-groups-diss-of-trivago-the-back-story/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 https://skift.com/2017/11/20/inside-priceline-groups-diss-of-trivago-the-back-story/ Thanks, Rishi. Very interesting dynamic. I think Priceline is being smart here, playing the long game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 I wonder if the multi-tier multi-sub structure is great for companies and/or consumers. Yeah, I understand somewhat the reasons why PCLN owns Kayak, Momondo, etc. And I understand why Kayak, Trivago, etc. sell the inventory to PCLN, Expedia, etc. But I still wonder if this leads to poisonous intersub relationships, infighting, subpar capital deployment decisions, etc. On the customer side, this is also somewhat an issue: I can see where customers would drive for Trivago's request that the search goes to a specific hotel page instead of adding another layer of search results in between. Maybe it all works out OK for companies. I'm a bit uneasy about it is all. (This also relates to possible TRIP acquisition.) Disclaimer: I did not graph the full web of sub/company relationships on who owns what and who advertises on what. There may be mistakes in paragraph above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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