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Best investments in the oil patch


netnet

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Given the dictum, buy when there is blood in the streets, what are the best stocks in energy?  Does anyone have any gem in this carnage? This includes everything from hoteliers in Alberta to pump makers in Japan, from E&P firms in Colorado to pipelines operators in BC.

 

In no particular order, I am looking at, but have not invested in:

  • Atlas, spinoff within a month of a oil and gas limited partnership promoter, hedged through 2017, good track record but big debt
  • Birchcliff, medium sized gas play, Seymour Schulich, FrancoNevada founder is a big holder, he says its a core holding for him
  • Spindletop, small Texas opportunistic E&P, but has not dropped enough for me
  • Macro Enterprises, pipeline builder and maintainer with a strong balance sheet, may be close to net net

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Guest 50centdollars

Peyto is probably the best company in the patch but it is not cheap.

 

Trilogy energy looks interesting. i have yet to dive into it nut I noticed Clayton Riddell purchased about $2.5 million in stock recently. He is a smart investor.

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I am also looking at

 

Chicago Bridge and Iron, Buffett purchase  long thread on site

GasLog GLOG, a LNG shipper

 

the question is which of all the companies that have gotten caught in the downdraft is the safest investment with a reasonable return?

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How about Enterprise group. Trading at 2-3x earnings, below book value. And less then 5% is related to oil lol. Yet it lost 2/3 of its value in the past 6 months. part of revenue is secured in 2-3 year contracts. So extremely unlikely to lose money here, and somewhat likely you do a homerun.

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I would be careful saying that only 5% of Enterprise business is related to oil:

 

"Fleet of trucks and heavy equipment to install underground utilities and pipelines and tunnelling services. Rents heavy equipment, flameless heating units and oilfield site service infrastructure."

 

That is the description of the business that I wrote down in a spreadsheet. So if spending is cut by roughly 25% across the board in the WCSB, I would imagine that their business will decline similarly. True that it is cheap.

 

Another one that you may want to look at is McCoy Global. This is much more directly related to oil & gas drilling, but it is very cheap and they sit on a nice net cash pile.

 

Or Hyduke Energy Services which has been turned around and is now lead by a good CEO focused on doing business at home, which there should be plenty for their size. The board is also focused on the right things now.

 

Bri-Chem is also cleaned up and they have made some smart acquisitions. No doubt it will be hit by a reduction in drilling, but it is incredibly cheap.

 

Cardboard

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My personal favourite: MTL - Mullen Group;  I bought it again, after a few years at its absolute low in early January.  They have diversified into trucking across Canada since I last held the stock.  I bought big this time.  An exceedingly well run company by an owner operator using the holding company style. 

 

Arc Energy - ARX - As good as best in breed in Western Canada - also a former holding.  Smaller position than Mtl because it is a pure energy play. 

 

You need to wait to see, if oil hits another downdraft to buy The above two.  The best deal is likely gone. 

 

 

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My personal favourite: MTL - Mullen Group;  I bought it again, after a few years at its absolute low in early January.  They have diversified into trucking across Canada since I last held the stock.  I bought big this time.  An exceedingly well run company by an owner operator using the holding company style. 

 

Arc Energy - ARX - As good as best in breed in Western Canada - also a former holding.  Smaller position than Mtl because it is a pure energy play. 

 

You need to wait to see, if oil hits another downdraft to buy The above two.  The best deal is likely gone.

 

Hi Uccmal,

I'm interested in your thesis on MTL, as I've looked into your favorite (and invested) in SSW before. From my quick glance MTL generates a lot of cash but roughly half of it goes to capex without revenues improving much in recent years (seems like maintenance capex and not growth capex). Obviousy lower oil prices should increase earnings, but current valuation (and even in beginning of january 2015) doesn't seem all that cheap (unless I missed something, and I most likely did). Thanks!

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My personal favourite: MTL - Mullen Group;  I bought it again, after a few years at its absolute low in early January.  They have diversified into trucking across Canada since I last held the stock.  I bought big this time.  An exceedingly well run company by an owner operator using the holding company style. 

 

Arc Energy - ARX - As good as best in breed in Western Canada - also a former holding.  Smaller position than Mtl because it is a pure energy play. 

 

You need to wait to see, if oil hits another downdraft to buy The above two.  The best deal is likely gone.

 

Hi Uccmal,

I'm interested in your thesis on MTL, as I've looked into your favorite (and invested) in SSW before. From my quick glance MTL generates a lot of cash but roughly half of it goes to capex without revenues improving much in recent years (seems like maintenance capex and not growth capex). Obviousy lower oil prices should increase earnings, but current valuation (and even in beginning of january 2015) doesn't seem all that cheap (unless I missed something, and I most likely did). Thanks!

 

I dont think you have missed anything.  Capex is not real high relative to net earnings.  They buy companies with some regularity.  I bought at an average of about 18.90 in January.  Not super cheap.  If it were to drop below $18 I might buy more. 

 

What I like:

1) The dividend - Easily covered by their net earnings.  They deliberately didn't raise it in 2014 because they had investments coming up that they knew about.  They are also careful around the commodity price

2) Management is excellent and are owners. 

3) Decentralized business - Think BRK

4) Growing the business at a sensible clip.

5) Debt levels are carefully managed, and are being kept at a reasonable levels. 

 

Things I dont like:

1) Leverage to the commodity cycle.  They are taking steps to mitigate this risk by hedging the oil services business with major purchases in general trucking.  The two are profitable at opposite sides of the spectrum. 

 

Why it may appear messy.  When I first bought the stock circa 2005/2006 they were an income trust.  They stayed that way until near the end of 2011.  During this period the debt levels ran much higher and they paid nearly 100 % of cash flow because it was tax advantaged.  When the gravy train ended they had to bring the dividend down, bring the debt down, and operate properly as a corporation.  It seems the post income trust rationalizing was finished last year. 

 

The other thing that make's it look messy is 2009.  They had too much debt going into the liquidity crisis, as did SSW, and everyone else.  Mullen went to the bank of Fairfax for an expensive loan.  This is off the books now.  It was bought in and debt is now much cheaper.  Knowing FFH that debt was certainly well north of 10%.  Their long term debt now is in the 6% range, and easily covered. 

 

I have been actively searching for dividend payers that wont cut their dividend and may even raise it.  MTL certainly fits the criteria. 

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Guest wellmont

Michael Rose and his team over at Tourmaline have a good track record. I have been keeping on eye on them for a long time. Looking for an entry point the last couple months but its remained surprisingly resistant to all of the carnage.

i like the odds of getting my money out of this one when the time comes. along with kelt.

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Guest notorious546

My personal favourite: MTL - Mullen Group;  I bought it again, after a few years at its absolute low in early January.  They have diversified into trucking across Canada since I last held the stock.  I bought big this time.  An exceedingly well run company by an owner operator using the holding company style. 

 

Arc Energy - ARX - As good as best in breed in Western Canada - also a former holding.  Smaller position than Mtl because it is a pure energy play. 

 

You need to wait to see, if oil hits another downdraft to buy The above two.  The best deal is likely gone.

 

Hi Uccmal,

I'm interested in your thesis on MTL, as I've looked into your favorite (and invested) in SSW before. From my quick glance MTL generates a lot of cash but roughly half of it goes to capex without revenues improving much in recent years (seems like maintenance capex and not growth capex). Obviousy lower oil prices should increase earnings, but current valuation (and even in beginning of january 2015) doesn't seem all that cheap (unless I missed something, and I most likely did). Thanks!

 

lower oil prices should improve earnings? i guess the transportation/trucking segment outweights their Oilfield services exposure?

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My personal favourite: MTL - Mullen Group;  I bought it again, after a few years at its absolute low in early January.  They have diversified into trucking across Canada since I last held the stock.  I bought big this time.  An exceedingly well run company by an owner operator using the holding company style. 

 

Arc Energy - ARX - As good as best in breed in Western Canada - also a former holding.  Smaller position than Mtl because it is a pure energy play. 

 

You need to wait to see, if oil hits another downdraft to buy The above two.  The best deal is likely gone.

 

Hi Uccmal,

I'm interested in your thesis on MTL, as I've looked into your favorite (and invested) in SSW before. From my quick glance MTL generates a lot of cash but roughly half of it goes to capex without revenues improving much in recent years (seems like maintenance capex and not growth capex). Obviousy lower oil prices should increase earnings, but current valuation (and even in beginning of january 2015) doesn't seem all that cheap (unless I missed something, and I most likely did). Thanks!

 

lower oil prices should improve earnings? i guess the transportation/trucking segment outweights their Oilfield services exposure?

Sorry, it should have said in the trucking segment. Not sure what the bottomline is.

 

Thanks for the writeup, Uccmal. I'll keep track of the company.

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I'm currently looking for more U.S. O&G exposure in my roth ira. (account is at optionshouse so can't trade TSX companies) I already have CBI, but the only other company I see coming up much on this board is NOV. Are there more compelling opportunities that anyone could recommend?

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  • 3 months later...

I'm currently looking for more U.S. O&G exposure in my roth ira. (account is at optionshouse so can't trade TSX companies) I already have CBI, but the only other company I see coming up much on this board is NOV. Are there more compelling opportunities that anyone could recommend?

 

How about FLR - same business than CBI, clean accounting and great balance sheet (net cash) but not as cheap in terms of PE. If you look at metrics with EV rather than market cap in the denominator, the valuation compared to CBI is fairly comparable.

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