walkie518 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 pricing looks pretty good here for FOXA ... anyone have a sense for the recent decline or has recent price action been largely driven by market forces? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 pricing looks pretty good here for FOXA ... anyone have a sense for the recent decline or has recent price action been largely driven by market forces? I like it enough and rebought some of my recently sold shares. It seems like the whole content/media sector has been weak (CBS, NFLX, DISCA) and FOX didn’t escape the wrath of Mr Market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walkie518 Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 pricing looks pretty good here for FOXA ... anyone have a sense for the recent decline or has recent price action been largely driven by market forces? I like it enough and rebought some of my recently sold shares. It seems like the whole content/media sector has been weak (CBS, NFLX, DISCA) and FOX didn’t escape the wrath of Mr Market. somehow, FWONA dodged the bullet ... DISCA might be worth add'l consideration, though I'd want a better price before buying? First legs down appear around the same time, but NFLX might have decoupled from CBS/VIA/FOX... there is certainly some effect from sector/industry price correlation, but likely the CBS/Viacom deal is weighing on those stocks while FOXA is more a matter of uncertainty regarding capital allocation decisions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 pricing looks pretty good here for FOXA ... anyone have a sense for the recent decline or has recent price action been largely driven by market forces? I like it enough and rebought some of my recently sold shares. It seems like the whole content/media sector has been weak (CBS, NFLX, DISCA) and FOX didn’t escape the wrath of Mr Market. Hard to tell what causes these share price oscillations. There was some concern about their purchases and then the stock bounced back, presumable because of a Murdoch insider buy. In the end, more noise than Signal and I disposition accordingly. I like FOX because I believe their have a franchise on news for conservatives and because their whole business around love content is Netflix resilient. their balance sheet looks way better than CBS/VIA or DISCA (which is worth consideration as well, because of the high FCF yield). somehow, FWONA dodged the bullet ... DISCA might be worth add'l consideration, though I'd want a better price before buying? First legs down appear around the same time, but NFLX might have decoupled from CBS/VIA/FOX... there is certainly some effect from sector/industry price correlation, but likely the CBS/Viacom deal is weighing on those stocks while FOXA is more a matter of uncertainty regarding capital allocation decisions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Some people are taking issue with Lachlan's pay: https://www.businessinsider.com/lachlan-murdoch-ceo-pay-after-disney-fox-sale-2019-9 I take issue with Lachlan's pay too. He should be paid zero, as he shouldn't be the CEO to begin with. Lachlan's only real qualifications are (1) he's Rupert's son and (2) his brother James is too politically liberal to lead a company that owns Fox News. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Okonomen Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Agree that they are wel-paid. Will be interesting to see the next proxy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brycepeterson Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Looks like good risk vs. reward to me here. $31.50 share price, enterprise value about $23.5 billion, should do around $1.6-$2.0 billion free cash flow per year. You don't find too many FCF / EV yields in that range anymore, especially given the business quality for FOX is pretty good. My main worry is if the CEO uses free cash flow poorly. I don't like the latest acquisition, but I also don't fully understand it. Seems like all FOX has to do to move the stock from low $30's to $40-$45 is generate that $1.6-$2.0 billion free cash flow and buyback a ton of stock at reasonable valuations. I'm not sure if CEO has a brain / understands this. Also note - Disney has come down lately from $140 to $130. Maybe there's just general weakness in media/tv/consumer stocks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Looks like good risk vs. reward to me here. $31.50 share price, enterprise value about $23.5 billion, should do around $1.6-$2.0 billion free cash flow per year. You don't find too many FCF / EV yields in that range anymore, especially given the business quality for FOX is pretty good. My main worry is if the CEO uses free cash flow poorly. I don't like the latest acquisition, but I also don't fully understand it. Seems like all FOX has to do to move the stock from low $30's to $40-$45 is generate that $1.6-$2.0 billion free cash flow and buyback a ton of stock at reasonable valuations. I'm not sure if CEO has a brain / understands this. Also note - Disney has come down lately from $140 to $130. Maybe there's just general weakness in media/tv/consumer stocks? Yes, the media sector has been weak, CBS/Viacom, DIS, NFLX, DISCA have all been weak lately. I like FOX focus on live programming, which means Netflix is not a competitor. They also own news for the conservative viewers (or infotainment) and Fox Sports is pretty good and way cheaper than ESPN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Okonomen Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 The proxy came out on Sep 23 Rupert Murdoch base salary: 5 mUSD (chairman/executive) Lachlan Murdoch base salary: 3 mUSD (CEO) - 85% of total compensation is variable/at risk ST cash incentive based on: EBITDA (terrible metric in my opinion) 75% and 25% individual performance LT incentive: 40% FCF, 40% EPS, 20% relative 3 year TSR Little excessive to pay the chair more than the CEO especially when he owns so much of the company. I also would have liked to see a capital return metric be more dominant even though the LT's are not terrible metrics, but you risk mgmgt to chase bottom line without regards to reinvestment returns on capital, and FCF focus motivates macimizing cash flows but also maybe neglecting critical CapEx. Target payout to Rupert and Lachlan is 10,5 and 8 mUSD (21 and 16 mUSD max) I notice the item "Personal Use of Corporate Aircraft" was 175.000 USD for Lachlan and 85.000 for Rupert... I notice on p40 that the value of vested options for Lachlan is 44 mUSD in 2019... Sounds extreme compared to shareholder returns Lachlan's direct ownership in common stock is around 154.000 units worth 5 mio. USD currently. Doesnt seem like a lot. The guideline for Lachlan is 5x base salary = 15 mUSD. With all the options etc he is albeit very inventivized to increase EPS, FCF and shareholder returns he just doesnt have that much downside In general I'm a little disappointed, but didn't really expect that much due to the ownership structure. Seems like they are showering themselves with options Any opinions on their remuneration policy 2019 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brycepeterson Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Apologize if this has been covered lately - one observation I have of the businesses I own shares in is "in general" - they move on a daily basis with their sub-sector (close comparables, like TV/content owners for FOX), or bigger industry (like "consumer discretionary" for FOX). My guess is indexing + sector funds buy/sell indiscriminately, thus you get daily selling or buying in TV/content owners and they all appreciate or fall together (FOX, DIS, CMCSA, etc.). I've been wondering if this dynamic has pushed FOX down from call it $34 to $31? The free cash flow I think it will produce doesn't justify this move down - thus I've been thinking it's sector/industry ETF/index fund selling vs. anything specific to FOX. The big banks follow this trend. They'll move independently on unique events / news such as earnings announcements, Wells Fargo was +4% on the CEO announcement last week, etc. But if you follow them during the routine days, I think they move fairly close together up or down. Sometimes I think this creates buying opportunities. (Probably FOX today.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Apologize if this has been covered lately - one observation I have of the businesses I own shares in is "in general" - they move on a daily basis with their sub-sector (close comparables, like TV/content owners for FOX), or bigger industry (like "consumer discretionary" for FOX). My guess is indexing + sector funds buy/sell indiscriminately, thus you get daily selling or buying in TV/content owners and they all appreciate or fall together (FOX, DIS, CMCSA, etc.). I've been wondering if this dynamic has pushed FOX down from call it $34 to $31? The free cash flow I think it will produce doesn't justify this move down - thus I've been thinking it's sector/industry ETF/index fund selling vs. anything specific to FOX. The big banks follow this trend. They'll move independently on unique events / news such as earnings announcements, Wells Fargo was +4% on the CEO announcement last week, etc. But if you follow them during the routine days, I think they move fairly close together up or down. Sometimes I think this creates buying opportunities. (Probably FOX today.) That's very interesting. I suppose CBS, at least until the Viacom transaction completes, is Fox's closest comp. Really there's no good comp though. I agree that the company is cheap, but remain concerned about management. If anyone can explain the logic of the Credible Labs acquisition I'm all ears. * Edited to fix typos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Fox and Dish are battling over pricing https://www.keepfox.com/ Dwayne Johnson returning to WWE Smackdown to kick off its Fox premiere this Friday. I think WWE will do well on Fox https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/dwayne-the-rock-johnson-wwe-return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Okonomen Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Fox and Dish are battling over pricing https://www.keepfox.com/ Dwayne Johnson returning to WWE Smackdown to kick off its Fox premiere this Friday. I think WWE will do well on Fox https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/dwayne-the-rock-johnson-wwe-return Cant figure out if this is a genious move by fox or too aggressive pissing dish off. However, i guess fox has the power as vustomers care about what they can watch and not about who delivers it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomad Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 I agree that the company is cheap, but remain concerned about management. If anyone can explain the logic of the Credible Labs acquisition I'm all ears. So I thought some more about this, and it's pure speculation but I'll put it out there: What if the Credible acquisition was designed to support Fox's move into sports betting? The Supreme Court has cleared the way for nationwide betting. Fox is almost certainly interested in the creditworthiness of the punters to whom the Fox Bet service is being offered. This could be an early building block as the company tries to establish the same dominance stateside that Sky enjoys in the UK. On the other hand, it could just be a giveaway to Lachlan's Australian friends! ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brycepeterson Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 I agree that the company is cheap, but remain concerned about management. If anyone can explain the logic of the Credible Labs acquisition I'm all ears. So I thought some more about this, and it's pure speculation but I'll put it out there: What if the Credible acquisition was designed to support Fox's move into sports betting? The Supreme Court has cleared the way for nationwide betting. Fox is almost certainly interested in the creditworthiness of the punters to whom the Fox Bet service is being offered. This could be an early building block as the company tries to establish the same dominance stateside that Sky enjoys in the UK. On the other hand, it could just be a giveaway to Lachlan's Australian friends! ;D Good thought Nomad! Why wouldn't Fox just say that on acquisition date? Makes the most sense of theories I've heard. Or maybe they hinted at it and I'm not aware... Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 Q3 ratings for Fox News: -1% Y/Y. #1 cable news network for 71 straight Qs. https://deadline.com/2019/10/fox-news-cable-news-network-ratings-1202749534/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 Long-term renewal with Cox announced today. This suggests to me that the ongoing dispute between Fox and Dish is primarily due to Dish being obstinate and not wanting to pay up. Typical Charlie Ergen stuff. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fox-corporation-and-cox-communications-announce-long-term-renewal-agreement-300931401.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 Long-term renewal with Cox announced today. This suggests to me that the ongoing dispute between Fox and Dish is primarily due to Dish being obstinate and not wanting to pay up. Typical Charlie Ergen stuff. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fox-corporation-and-cox-communications-announce-long-term-renewal-agreement-300931401.html Dish had this stuff all the time going on when I was customer a couple of years ago. It’s a negotiating tactic and the content always came back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Long-term renewal with Cox announced today. This suggests to me that the ongoing dispute between Fox and Dish is primarily due to Dish being obstinate and not wanting to pay up. Typical Charlie Ergen stuff. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fox-corporation-and-cox-communications-announce-long-term-renewal-agreement-300931401.html Dish had this stuff all the time going on when I was customer a couple of years ago. It’s a negotiating tactic and the content always came back. Interesting, thanks. Strong ratings for premiere of WWE Smackdown last night. https://www.wrestlinginc.com/news/2019/10/wwe-smackdown-fox-premiere-viewership-draws-big-numbers-660399/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Long-term renewal with Cox announced today. This suggests to me that the ongoing dispute between Fox and Dish is primarily due to Dish being obstinate and not wanting to pay up. Typical Charlie Ergen stuff. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fox-corporation-and-cox-communications-announce-long-term-renewal-agreement-300931401.html Dish had this stuff all the time going on when I was customer a couple of years ago. It’s a negotiating tactic and the content always came back. Looks like they were able to hash out their differences in time for some of yesterday's football action. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/dish-reaches-long-term-carriage-agreement-with-fox-300932687.html Rupert Murdoch was at the Cowboys-Packers game yesterday. I think he's friends with Jerry Jones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 I agree that the company is cheap, but remain concerned about management. If anyone can explain the logic of the Credible Labs acquisition I'm all ears. So I thought some more about this, and it's pure speculation but I'll put it out there: What if the Credible acquisition was designed to support Fox's move into sports betting? The Supreme Court has cleared the way for nationwide betting. Fox is almost certainly interested in the creditworthiness of the punters to whom the Fox Bet service is being offered. This could be an early building block as the company tries to establish the same dominance stateside that Sky enjoys in the UK. On the other hand, it could just be a giveaway to Lachlan's Australian friends! ;D Good thought Nomad! Why wouldn't Fox just say that on acquisition date? Makes the most sense of theories I've heard. Or maybe they hinted at it and I'm not aware... Thank you. I don't think it has anything to do with sports betting. During the Q4 call an analyst asked about the acquisition's rationale. Lachlan's response was that due to the overlap between Fox's news (Fox News, Fox Business, local news) audiences and Credible's target market, Fox can funnel lots of good prospects to Credible. Credible ultimately is just a tool to compare loan offers side-by-side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 It's reverse mortgages for their aging demographic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Okonomen Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 https://seekingalpha.com/news/3505900-redstone-counters-report-exploring-fox-news-rival Hope this will not become reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Okonomen Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 https://dataroma.com/m/stock.php?sym=FOX Both Tweedy & Browne and Baupost are now shareholders. Maybe Baupost got in thru the spin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walkie518 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 down 3.5% today on Kacie McDonnell? That doesn't make sense... anyone have any insight here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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