FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc

[JRM]

I'm sorry if my post came off as overly political.  I didn't think they were value statements, just statements of opinion.  Worth every penny it cost. 

 

I'm coming at it from the standpoint that most of the news media is more about entertainment and less about unbiased news.  I've been thinking about the Fox situation a lot recently.  I was a shareholder in Fox prior to the sale of assets to Disney.  I'm having a hard time getting over the concentration risk with NFL rights and Fox News.

 

 

[dwy000]

I'm sorry if my post came off as overly political.  I didn't think they were value statements, just statements of opinion.  Worth every penny it cost. 

 

I'm coming at it from the standpoint that most of the news media is more about entertainment and less about unbiased news.  I've been thinking about the Fox situation a lot recently.  I was a shareholder in Fox prior to the sale of assets to Disney.  I'm having a hard time getting over the concentration risk with NFL rights and Fox News.

 

Politics aside it is unlikely that Fox keeps its "monopoly" on right leaning views and will have viewers carved off into more extreme niches (like Newsmax and OAN).  This is similar to what happened with CNN a couple of years ago with the emergence of MSNBC on the further left.  In addition, on the "middle" front there are 3-4 new national challengers who aim to be centrist news (not opinion) organs. Like any monopoly it tends to not last long as challengers see excess returns and dive in.

 

I suspect viewership will drop until next election cycle. But that doesn't mean its a bad business outlook.  The Fox streaming channel seems to be doing extremely well and a good chunk of the revenues are from contracted carriage.that will erode but slowly. 

 

Maybe it all comes down to just how much they can charge thst MyPillows guy to put in 20 commercials per hour.

[Foreign Tuffett]

^ I think you should revise your post and avoid value statements. i don’t generally watch Fox news (I don’t have cable TV) so this is solely meant from an investment perspective.

 

I owned the stock before and got two good trades out of it and one went bust when I sold at $24-25. My thesis at that point is that Fox owns right leaning media and now I am not sure any more it’s a given.

 

I assume the pie (for right leaning media) stays the same and if Newsmax or another source can get a much larger slice of the pie, then this has to come from Foxnews viewership. Foxnews constitutes the vast majority of FOX Corporation’s value so this could be material even if only 20% of the viewership get lost, as the NBC news article stipulates. It is pretty simple conceptually, but I don’t  know how to handicap the probabilities. I think it would be priced in if FOX trades around $20/ share (the recent lows in March) but maybe not fully at $26.

 

Spekulatius I agree with you. I just scrolled through Trump's tweets, and over the past seven days he has either promoted OANN and/or Newsmax or attacked Fox News no less than 14 times. One November 12th OANN hit a higher level on interest on Google Trends than its level of interest on election night.

 

If Trump is maneuvering to own or control his own right wing media empire, then this could be a big problem for Fox.

[JRM]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/08/media/newsmax-fox-news-ratings/index.html

[KJP]

Earlier on this thread, there was a hypothesis that growth in vMVPD subscribers would make up for the decline in traditional cable bundle subscribers.  That doesn't appear to be happening:  https://www.streamingmediablog.com/2021/02/paytvlosses-2020.html

 

Somewhat related, Roku is a $60 billion company.  Rather than continue to try to market cable TV bundles, maybe broadband companies should just replicate its business:  https://www.xfinity.com/learn/flex