no_free_lunch Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Our little investment company had its AGM today featuring the bear case on bitcoin, bull cases on AC and BOL.PA. A few slides in it might help you pull apart the empire. https://www.nsx.com.au/ftp/news/021734052.PDF I just saw your presentation. This is fantastic, thanks for sharing it. I couldn't entirely follow everything on it but I agree that Odet is the way to play this. You get an extra discount (to Bollore's market value) and extra self-cancelling shares, it is just a much better deal than Bollore with no discernible extra risk. Either way you have the same management. Odet is honestly the cheapest equity security I am aware of right now, period. I am really having a hard time valuing the operations side of Bollore. Muddy Waters put it at around $8B pre-debt considerations, but that is already a couple years old. You have a breakdown in your presentation but I really have a hard time understanding it. Do you have a number in mind for operations? Also, does your presentation include the $2.3B from the Havas sale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ebdem Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 I think the upside was to Bollore and it occurred when the transaction closed. I am not so sure. There are so many moving parts, but we might see some upside from the integration. If we think of an alliance between mediaset and canal+ and they become the media powerhouse for the french and spanish speaking countries, having a global agency on board might be very interestigng. Or Telecom Italia becoming a separated provider without a landline network there might be some options to sell telecom and internet services - also with the help of havas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunny Bunny Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 The quick and dirty on Bollore does include the Havas deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mondegreen Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 Article posted on VIC regarding ODET: https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/Financiandegrave%3Bre_de_lOdet/141824 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLM5 Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 https://www.ft.com/content/dfd3abfa-47ab-11e8-8ee8-cae73aab7ccb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 Whoa! I will paraphrase so people don't have to go the link. Vincent Bollore is in custody. Stock down 7%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 State prosecutors believe that Bollores, who has interests in several African countries, could have taken advantage of his Havas communications agency to facilitate African heads of state into power in exchange for concessions to operate these terminals. They seek to draw a connection between Havas’ management of the 2010 presidential campaigns of the Guinean President Alpha Condé and Faure Gnassingbé of Togo at ridiculously subsidised prices and the subsequent acquisition of port rights by Bolloré Africa Logistics. Other executives of the group were also taken into custody on Tuesday, including Gilles Alix, CEO of the Bolloré group, and Jean-Philippe Dorent, head of the international division of the Havas communications agency. http://www.africanews.com/2018/04/24/french-billionaire-vincent-bollore-arrested-over-corruption-allegations-in/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 As Bloomberg says, this is likely a common scare tactics of French police/authorities. They arrest a bigwig financier and let them sweat a bit for a day or so. (I sometimes wish US FBI/etc. did this too ;)). So it might be opportunity to buy (more). I might be more concerned with succession than with the arrest, although who knows. I sold most/all of my shares in ODET.PA. It is likely a mistake on price though, so don't follow me. 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 I certainly hope it is just scare tactics. This is definitely a jockey play, when he is out so am I. It sounds like he was released from jail but this is just the beginning. This whole process could play out over a lengthy time period. What’s next for Bollore’s criminal case? It’s unclear, and it could be many months -- or even years -- before we know. In the French legal system, charges are announced prior to any decision on whether to refer the case to trial and can be dropped later. His defense lawyers now get access to the case files underpinning the allegations, which they hadn’t seen so far. In the meantime, he remains at the helm of his company. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-26/why-bollore-criminal-case-resonates-in-france-africa-quicktake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 This is definitely a jockey play, when he is out so am I. So then what do you think about succession issue? I.e. his son taking over Vivendi already ( https://www.reuters.com/article/us-vivendi-agm/billionaire-bollore-anoints-son-yannick-as-new-vivendi-chairman-idUSKBN1HQ2I4 ) and other pieces - I think it was announced - is it next year or in two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 My plan was to sell when he officially hands things over. With this type of personality you never know, it can take years. I haven't seen anything official about when it is happening. As far as the link, it's not something I like to see to be honest but that's not enough for me to sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 OK. I think the "official" transfer was previously announced to be 2022, but with Vivendi news and the Africa case who knows. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 I am out. This thing was always on the edge for me but with a criminal investigation, no I don`t want to deal with that. It is still under-priced given the share structure but there are other opportunities with fewer issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 Anyone have the HSBC downgrade from today? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 First of all, thank you to the CoBF members so far participating in this topic - lots of posts - so far - with exceptional high quality - again, thank you! - - - o 0 o - - - Somehow, this topic & investment here on CoBF has skipped my attention. [i'm sorry to say, I'm just such a slow catcher!] I have been spending the brother part of my yesterday [sunday] reading up and studying this topic and looking at BOL.PA & ODET.PA. It has appeal to me, but yes, there are issues, and yes, it's quite complicated, as already covered very well in this topic. This topic basically went inactive end of April 2018. At that time BOL.PA traded at ~EUR 4.1. Today, it is around ~EUR 3.7. - - - o 0 o - - - Now to the issues: Mr. Bolloré has been accused of using bribes in Africa related to obtaining rights to operate ports in a couple of African countries. He was detained for interrogation at that time back in April 2018. His public reaction to these allegations aren't covered so far in this topic. I had to search quite a bit to find his public reaction, which you can read here. Personally, I find this statement quite surprising, actually - by not blaiming the "system" Mr. Bolloré is subject to, but some kind of societal [political?] prejudice [please think history here!] - in his own country - with regard to Africa. - No matter how you personally look at it - it tells at least me a lot about the person, and his headwind patterns, to approach this event like he did then. I haven't experienced that many persons in my life approaching such an event in personal life this way, when there are dire personal headwinds. - - - o 0 o - - - In short, I like him. But I may be wrong - absolutely wrong - on that assessment. [Position sizing comes to mind.] - - - o 0 o - - - I'm by far not well wandered in French politics. However I have a more than loose idea how things work there. - - - o 0 o - - - Wikipedia: Law of Jante. Example: L. E. Lundbergföretagen AB [January 26th 2017] : Information on preliminary investigation related to hunts arranged by Holmen. Outcome: L. E. Lundbergföretagen AB [December 17th 2017] : Investigation related to hunting arranged by Holmen discontinued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 From the "What are you buying today?" topic today: I've bought trackers in the following companies: Bolloré SA [CoBF Investment Ideas topic] [Company Website] For my part, ODET.PA has to wait for now, ... John, My concern with Bollore is what happens after Vincent Bollore retires? Does he have the depth of management in place that BRK does? Look forward to your thoughts. cheers Zorro Zorrofan, Right now, I'm unopinionated on that matter, because of lack of knowledge [<-rb has posted recently, that he thought I would do well in politics [ : - D ] - It translates to "I don't know."]. The only thing that I right now feel confident about, is that I will be entertained by studying Vincent Bolloré's doings in hindsight after reading the Wikipedia article about him. [i think it was the French one, that was the best.] It's about going basically from zero to where he is today with BOL.PA [& ODET.PA]. I simply can't help but admire deeply such an achievement. On my way I'll post my comments & observations here ... - perhaps we can get this topic going again. [i sure understand why some of our fellow board members have pulled their feelers here.] Your concerns appear both relevant and important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Anyone that could get the SocGen initiation, I would love a copy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted September 7, 2019 Share Posted September 7, 2019 Here, I'm trying to get this topic about BOL.PA going again [<- and honestly, I don't know why?] - it [this topic] has been like the behavior of a flattening tyre, since the accusations of Mr. Bolloré's wrongdoings last year : . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 With Vincent Bollore gone, I would not be investing for deal making and investment growth. I think the easiest play going forward is for successor to start to unravel the nested share structure. I think this can be done via spinoffs and dividends. If I started to see that happen I would be interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Nice plug from Vitaliy Katsenelson for Bollore. It’s exactly what lead me to this and eventually OTEL.PA https://contrarianedge.com/bollore-streaming-music-cash-flows/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValuePadawan Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 I've been looking into Bolloré a bit and as it only has a net share count of around 1.4B if you normalize the spiderweb of crossholdings, that gives them a mkt cap of €3.5B. Considering their 26% stake in Vivendi is worth €5.4B and you are also getting their battery division (not very impressive), their port and logistics businesses (more impressive) as well as some small holdings in agriculture businesses and some vineyards (a French company wouldn't be complete without them). Why are they trading at such a discount to NAV? Does the market not understand or not trust the controlling family? It seems to good to be true. Am I missing something in my blind spot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awindenberger Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 I've been looking into Bolloré a bit and as it only has a net share count of around 1.4B if you normalize the spiderweb of crossholdings, that gives them a mkt cap of €3.5B. Considering their 26% stake in Vivendi is worth €5.4B and you are also getting their battery division (not very impressive), their port and logistics businesses (more impressive) as well as some small holdings in agriculture businesses and some vineyards (a French company wouldn't be complete without them). Why are they trading at such a discount to NAV? Does the market not understand or not trust the controlling family? It seems to good to be true. Am I missing something in my blind spot? Only question is when something will be done to close the gap between value and stock price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValuePadawan Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 I've been looking into Bolloré a bit and as it only has a net share count of around 1.4B if you normalize the spiderweb of crossholdings, that gives them a mkt cap of €3.5B. Considering their 26% stake in Vivendi is worth €5.4B and you are also getting their battery division (not very impressive), their port and logistics businesses (more impressive) as well as some small holdings in agriculture businesses and some vineyards (a French company wouldn't be complete without them). Why are they trading at such a discount to NAV? Does the market not understand or not trust the controlling family? It seems to good to be true. Am I missing something in my blind spot? Only question is when something will be done to close the gap between value and stock price. "Liquidity: at January 31, 2020, the Group's liquidities(2), undrawn long term confirmed lines and liquid investments represented approximately €2.6 billion for Bolloré and €8.2 billion including Vivendi." Seems like once Vivendi and Bolloré ensure their businesses will be stable and healthy they have the opportunity to retire stock at attractive levels and I don't see Universal Music Group revenues being affected very much and its probable to assume the African ports will more or less continue operations. What could be hit is Bolloré energy as less liquid hydrocarbons will need to be transported and stored in France and Germany as road traffic decreases while shutdowns are in place. If Bolloré even took €500M and put it towards share repurchases thats 20% of the net shares right there, seems like a no brainer to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart D Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 I haven’t looked at this one for a while. Is ODET still a better buy (larger discount to NAV) than Bollore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 I haven’t looked at this one for a while. Is ODET still a better buy (larger discount to NAV) than Bollore? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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