Packer16 Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 If you sensitize the model, the real big driver is the NGL pricing which is tied to WTI. If you have modest increase in Nat Gas prices with a large increase in WTI/NGL's then you will pay down a lot of debt. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest notorious546 Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 At current prices, BXE is in a running as fast as it can to stay in the same place. Using Wilson's detailed model, assuming $40 WTI and $2.00 AECO for 2016 and $2.50 AECO for 2017, There's no FCF after capex and interest to pay down debt. It's only after $3.00 AECO that BXE gets to pay down some debt. It's important to make explicit what the assumptions when we buy the common. You're betting BXE runs at current production levels (which assumes they continue their their phenomenal hit rate) You're betting natural gas prices will not go lower You're betting BXE doesn't run into any unplanned hiccups which would result in more capex. I'm in the common, but I think BXE doesn't have lowest chance of permanent capital loss. I'll sum it up in one sentence. You're betting that BXE maintains current production for the next two or 3 years, and then betting that natural gas prices will be higher. I think natural gas prices being higher in a couple of years is an easily believable one, but what I worry about most is the company's ability to maintain production. that's quite the number of if's that need to go "right" for this story to workout. For that reason i'm out. For what it's worth, the management team has quite the poor reputation in calgary. The ceo is by far the most promotional out of any i've met in calgary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tede02 Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 Curious as to origins of the bad reputation? Is it personalities? Is it labor related? Is it related to the legacy trust company? The operating metrics pretty clearly tell the story of an effective management team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted March 25, 2016 Author Share Posted March 25, 2016 Curious as to origins of the bad reputation? Is it personalities? Is it labor related? Is it related to the legacy trust company? The operating metrics pretty clearly tell the story of an effective management team. Notice that big write off last year? That was related to the Angle acquisition. The bad rep comes from the overly aggressive attitude of growing production. Promotional? I dont think Notorious has talked to enough CEOs in Calgary because I can list a lot more. BXE is a commodity price bet. But then again, what E&P company isn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest notorious546 Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Curious as to origins of the bad reputation? Is it personalities? Is it labor related? Is it related to the legacy trust company? The operating metrics pretty clearly tell the story of an effective management team. Just remember it's all relative. It's almost hard not to find similar growth rates, improvements in cost structures and high debt levels in the gas weighted space. Look at NuVista, Cequence, Kelt, etc... Ya. that write off wasn't due to good decision making. I'd be interested in hearing who you think is more promotional than BXE. I've only met about 15 or so teams in calgary so you could have met more and have a better grasp than i do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
argonaut Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 According to Gurufocus, looks like Klarman sold the majority of his position in first quarter of this year... Not a good sign, but who knows the whole story ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Good! Finally got rid of some more weak hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Did I miss the memo when Baupost counts as a weak hand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StevieV Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Did I miss the memo when Baupost counts as a weak hand? I would assume that Cardboard is joking. Unusual situation in this stock with the large holders and small market cap. Orange has shut down and now we learn that Baupost liquidated the majority of their shares a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simple Investor Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Baupost blowing out. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
influx Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 Orange sells ~1919639 shares at 1.29CAD? I dont seem to be able to confirm this via Sedi..only this part I can find 10 - Acquisition or disposition in the public market -1,245,235 at price 1.2858 still holding: 18,752,145 + they has Notes Senior Notes 8.50% due May 15, 2020, $15,300,000 chairman bought Jan 26/16 10 - Acquisition in the public market 100,000 $1.43 he has 938,228 ceo bought Mar 24/16 10 - Acquisition in the public market 60,000 $1.29 holds: 589,024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tede02 Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 I emailed investor relations this morning to see if or how the wildfires are impacting the company's assets/operations. It appears that the most serious fires are north of the company's acreage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tede02 Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 Response from investor relations: "Hi Ted the wild fires do not affect any of our assets or production we operate several hundred miles south east in central Alberta........Troy Winsor" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philippoc93 Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 The wildfire I'm waiting to hit BXE is the Orange Liquidation. Checking the filings nearly twice a day at this stage. Does anybody have any educated guesses on when this will happen? I know Wilson was saying that he thinks they will be sold via block trades? Is this the only overhang that's keeping BXE in this current trading range? Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simple Investor Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Aeco spot at .77 cents $C/mcf. Dropped .43 cents or so the other day. yesterday another .9 cents. That can't be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 I am out of Bellatrix for a few reasons. Not in order of importance: 1- Orange and Baupost selling is a big overhang on the shares until completely gone. 2- Their line of credit will likely be cut in the next review from $540 million. I have been monitoring bankers actions and they seem to not like exceeding 75% of Proved Developed Reserves NPV in this environment. That could put them dangerously close to their drawn amount with little flexibility. 3- Natural gas can't catch a break although, they are well hedged. 4- I see other opportunities where companies have been moving while these guys may be forced to move under bankers pressure. 5- Cheaper names. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
influx Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 I am out of Bellatrix for a few reasons. Not in order of importance: 1- Orange and Baupost selling is a big overhang on the shares until completely gone. 2- Their line of credit will likely be cut in the next review from $540 million. I have been monitoring bankers actions and they seem to not like exceeding 75% of Proved Developed Reserves NPV in this environment. That could put them dangerously close to their drawn amount with little flexibility. 3- Natural gas can't catch a break although, they are well hedged. 4- I see other opportunities where companies have been moving while these guys may be forced to move under bankers pressure. 5- Cheaper names. Cardboard Maximum pessimism? :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted May 13, 2016 Author Share Posted May 13, 2016 My thoughts on BXE Q1 results. Q1.PDF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted May 13, 2016 Author Share Posted May 13, 2016 Correction: No alder flat plant was sold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustin_johnson25 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Orange may have exited a good amount of its position. I received the following from a broker this morning: "Quick heads up that we saw a large block trade on Bellatrix Exploration, 22mm shares at $1.33" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
influx Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Orange may have exited a good amount of its position. I received the following from a broker this morning: "Quick heads up that we saw a large block trade on Bellatrix Exploration, 22mm shares at $1.33" seems true sedi tells "Ceased to be Insider: 2016-05-17" I dont know if this means that they/he do not hold the notes anymore though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simple Investor Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest notorious546 Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 all the "superinvestors" are gone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tede02 Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 Not this one! ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawn619 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Anyone have thoughts on today's news? Not a fan of share issuances at what I think is a depressed price, but I think management is thinking that anything that increases FCF, even if it's not free cash flow per share, is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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