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BXE - Bellatrix Explorations


Wilson-TPC

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Packer - Saw your 2016 post mentioned BXE and its current undervaluation (in addition to its unfortunate lack of results last year).  Do you have any specific thoughts on its current valuation or the announcement today?  Any thoughts on what it is worth?  When it might move?

 

I would be interested in thoughts from anyone on the board following BXE on the update/plan released today.

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Thought I would bump this up and see if it got any interest.

 

BXE seems to be in good shape here, IMO.  Debts more under control.  A better hedging plan for 2017.  Perhaps a better NG situation.

 

I think NG price levels remain a risk.  Storage is coming back into better balance a bit, but there is a lot behind that.  Generally storage is compared to a 5 year average.  In this case, the 5 year average has bumped up a bit, making the absolute storage a bit better.  The bigger question is how quickly and easily NG production can be brought online.  Definitely quicker and easier than oil, so I don't expected an extended period of high prices.  However, I still think we will see generally higher pricing than in the last year and sufficiently high for BXE to do well.

 

My largest position, by a good bit, in the E&P space is PWE, which is starting to make a nice move.  My next couple positions are stuck in the mud a bit - BTE and then BXE.  I am pretty confident in BTE and tend to think BXE has sufficiently righted the ship, though I am less enthralled with their management versus BTE (significantly larger position than BXE for me).

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Canaccord came out with a report on Friday.  Cash flow per share predictions of .39 for 2017 and .54 for 2018.  65% of the natgas is hedged for 2017.  So, the cash flow should be coming into picture reasonably well.  2018 is less certain at this point with the futures farther off and 35% hedged.  Regardless, supports the notion that BXE is trading at an attractive valuation today.  Key is at least $3 AECO.

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  • 4 months later...

Anyone still following BXE?

Their bank debt has dropped. Bonds seem to be well managed, with no due redemption until 2020 (attached Bloomberg prt scr from yesterday). Anyone has an opinion of the new CEO? and of the stock price considering current AECO curve?

Thanks.

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sg2017051659648.gif.4f525716ae00792f66b975ac01b5e972.gif

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