tede02 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Appears the baby is getting thrown out with the bathwater today. It really is amazing to watch the energy glut play out. Interesting how companies like BXE that produce a lot more gas than oil largely swing with crude prices volatility. I've been a buyer on the way down but am trying to keep some dry powder. Things will probably get worse before they get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aws Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Appears the baby is getting thrown out with the bathwater today. It really is amazing to watch the energy glut play out. Interesting how companies like BXE that produce a lot more gas than oil largely swing with crude prices volatility. I've been a buyer on the way down but am trying to keep some dry powder. Things will probably get worse before they get better. Natural gas was down 5% today as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tede02 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Very true. I guess I should have been more specific. The statement was more general and reflects my observation over the past 12 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Any updated thoughts from Wilson? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted December 8, 2015 Author Share Posted December 8, 2015 No new thoughts other than that the credit line was in line with what was being communicated to investors. AECO gas prices on a realized basis for BXE next year would be (3.38+2.53)/2 = 2.955/mcf. Canadian oil prices are around 53 for next year, so operating cash flow is around ~120 million for 2016. Capex to keep productions flat is ~100 million, so BXE would be cash flow positive for 2016. BXE has ~200 million in liquidity going into 2016, and thanks to the gas plant, the line wasn't cut further. All in all, the company will survive the downturn. I have no idea if natural gas prices will bounce or if oil will bounce. In the mean time, BXE will fluctuate with oil prices and natural gas prices. Best, Wilson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted December 8, 2015 Author Share Posted December 8, 2015 Appears the baby is getting thrown out with the bathwater today. It really is amazing to watch the energy glut play out. Interesting how companies like BXE that produce a lot more gas than oil largely swing with crude prices volatility. I've been a buyer on the way down but am trying to keep some dry powder. Things will probably get worse before they get better. Natural gas was down 5% today as well. AECO gas is the more important one to follow. http://www.psac.ca/business/firstenergy/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
influx Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Appears the baby is getting thrown out with the bathwater today. It really is amazing to watch the energy glut play out. Interesting how companies like BXE that produce a lot more gas than oil largely swing with crude prices volatility. I've been a buyer on the way down but am trying to keep some dry powder. Things will probably get worse before they get better. Natural gas was down 5% today as well. AECO gas is the more important one to follow. http://www.psac.ca/business/firstenergy/ sinking...good? :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 Final BXE Model, play with the numbers. BXE_Final_Model.xlsx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
influx Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Final BXE Model, play with the numbers. Why don't you include a model with current prices as they are? Why not with prices below the current point for longer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 Final BXE Model, play with the numbers. Why don't you include a model with current prices as they are? Why not with prices below the current point for longer? 2016 numbers are strip. Play with it. That's the whole point. Not for me to tell you what prices should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest notorious546 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Have you looked into capacity constraints in the upper james river area? i'm not fully aware as to what is going on but it looks like if the rest of the group (cad gas e&p's), reach their minimum take or pay commitments and or growth targets for the next few years there will be a large shortage for gas takeaway capacity. This would translate into even lower pricing than we are seeing today. any thoughts anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Final BXE Model, play with the numbers. Circular reference. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
influx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/17/jim-chanos-here-are-my-energy-shorts.html scroll to minute 5 for Gas, specifically talking about LNG bearish he is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simple Investor Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Orange selling 500,000 shares is a little disappointing. Hopefully it was for tax loss selling and/or redemption's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
influx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Orange selling 500,000 shares is a little disappointing. Hopefully it was for tax loss selling and/or redemption's. Indeed..but that's institutional behavior.. Wilson may be able to comment more on OC buy and sell in a month :) They do have bought debt too.. so.. I think we'll see abit more blood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simple Investor Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 This investment is going swimmingly. Is orange blowing out of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
influx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 This investment is going swimmingly. Is orange blowing out of this? maybe http://finance.yahoo.com/news/activist-hedge-fund-firm-orange-151914007.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simple Investor Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Ha, looks like Orange is out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor-man Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Interesting. Anybody know if/when a filing would need to be made if Baupost decided to pick up some of Orange's shares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tede02 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Orange is out of business completely... http://www.wsj.com/articles/activist-hedge-fund-orange-capital-shutting-down-1454510952 This was also interesting. Worldwide, low oil and gas prices will likely persist into 2016... http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/02/investing/saudi-arabia-oil-madeleine-albright/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aws Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Looks like he already sold all he needed to sell before the news leaked, so I wouldn't anticipate this having a dramatic impact on BXE's near term price. “My fund is almost completely in cash,” said Lewis in an e-mail, “that’s the responsible thing to do before this leaked.” “ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simple Investor Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 That's good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
influx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looks like he already sold all he needed to sell before the news leaked, so I wouldn't anticipate this having a dramatic impact on BXE's near term price. “My fund is almost completely in cash,” said Lewis in an e-mail, “that’s the responsible thing to do before this leaked.” “ This is what I see at sedi Looks to me like they still have this holding and made a partial liquidation?BXE_SEDI20160204.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simple Investor Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 on the 15th of January just under 20mm shares? Hopefully he sold by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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