whiterose Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 unbelievable levels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peregrine Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 unbelievable levels... Never thought we'd be at the point where some companies trade at 1x earnings but here we are. Anything can truly happen in markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnny Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 we are either going to make a lot of money, or lose it all Good opener for everybody's next letter to their partners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 we are either going to make a lot of money, or lose it all Good opener for everybody's next letter to their partners That was compounder 3 weeks ago, wasn’t it? And Airlines are “credit Card with wings” which now makes them toxic twice over. Amazing how narratives can change in such a short time. I have never seen anything like it, even the financial crisis in 2008 was moving much slower than that. Well the 1987 was quicker so there is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnny Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Crazy: 50% move up from the intra-day bottom. Vegas may be shut down, but The Casino is open for business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 we are either going to make a lot of money, or lose it all Good opener for everybody's next letter to their partners That was compounder 3 weeks ago, wasn’t it? And Airlines are “credit Card with wings” which now makes them toxic twice over. Amazing how narratives can change in such a short time. I have never seen anything like it, even the financial crisis in 2008 was moving much slower than that. Well the 1987 was quicker so there is that. Very well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edward Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 unbelievable levels... I would like to remind all participants that we are talking about a business carrying almost 30B$ in debt and under 10B$ in equity. You don't need much in the way of variance in the perception regarding the assets to move this stock with this kind of leverage. Sure hope all of their clients pay up on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peregrine Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 unbelievable levels... I would like to remind all participants that we are talking about a business carrying almost 30B$ in debt and under 10B$ in equity. You don't need much in the way of variance in the perception regarding the assets to move this stock with this kind of leverage. Sure hope all of their clients pay up on time. Adequate liquidity to cover this year's debt maturities by more than 2x so there's no risk of forced selling into distressed spot markets here. Plus $28 billion of unencumbered assets that the company can borrow against. Of course, market valuing this as if it needs to liquidate TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manuelbean Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 unbelievable levels... I would like to remind all participants that we are talking about a business carrying almost 30B$ in debt and under 10B$ in equity. You don't need much in the way of variance in the perception regarding the assets to move this stock with this kind of leverage. Sure hope all of their clients pay up on time. Hello, could you please explain how that works? Who will re assess the value of the assets? And how and when? If the equity is wiped out, what will hapen? Do the creditors get the airplanes? And will they sell them in such a scenario? To whom? Thank you very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricSchleien Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Just did a podcast about this here: https://ericschleien.com/podcast/coronavirus-investing-series-part-2-jeremy-raper-aercap-aer/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matts Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 I love this company and management. However.... despite the contracted revenue, there are always issues in a stressed environment with defaults and airlines wanting to defer. This is especially tricky at present. As soon as COVID-19 came on the scene, I dumped all my AER even though it was my second largest long position. Why? The market always overreacts in the short term, as it did in late-2018 when credit spreads blew out (a little). It took a brief period but that is starting to happen again. The company will probably step up the buyback but they will need to exercise some caution. I want to come back to AER but will bide my time because of the direct impact of this particular situation and the reaction of speculators to it. The 30's are not an impossibility, stupid though that will be. You were right on about this. well, except that it went to 15, not 35. are you considering buying back in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edward Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Adequate liquidity to cover this year's debt maturities by more than 2x so there's no risk of forced selling into distressed spot markets here. Plus $28 billion of unencumbered assets that the company can borrow against. Of course, market valuing this as if it needs to liquidate TODAY. You're probably not going to find many punters to encumber such assets for a while. It is a matter of their lessors being mostly solvent so they can service their debt. A binary outcome at this point. Nice upside, substantial risk due to the debt levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edward Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 A few items from the 20-F: https://investors.aercap.com/shareholder-resources/sec-filings/content/0001378789-20-000004/0001378789-20-000004.pdf Page 7: "As of December 31, 2019, we had 299 new aircraft on order, which will require substantial aircraft purchase contract payments. Subsequent to December 31, 2019, we exercised an option to purchase an additional 50 Airbus A320neo Family aircraft. In order to meet these commitments and to maintain an adequate level of unrestricted cash, we will need to raise additional funds by accessing committed debt facilities, securing additional financing from banks or through capital markets transactions, or possibly by selling aircraft. " Related CAPEX is around 3-4B$ annually, which they might not be able to finance for a while. They also have 3.5B$ of maturities this year (page F-29). They have 1B$ in cash plus 4B$ more they are going to get soon from a credit facility. So they're going to be fine for around 6 months before accounting for nonpayment by some lessors. Seems a bit dicey. I am assuming of course no assets sales into this environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matts Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 A few items from the 20-F: https://investors.aercap.com/shareholder-resources/sec-filings/content/0001378789-20-000004/0001378789-20-000004.pdf Page 7: "As of December 31, 2019, we had 299 new aircraft on order, which will require substantial aircraft purchase contract payments. Subsequent to December 31, 2019, we exercised an option to purchase an additional 50 Airbus A320neo Family aircraft. In order to meet these commitments and to maintain an adequate level of unrestricted cash, we will need to raise additional funds by accessing committed debt facilities, securing additional financing from banks or through capital markets transactions, or possibly by selling aircraft. " Related CAPEX is around 3-4B$ annually, which they might not be able to finance for a while. They also have 3.5B$ of maturities this year (page F-29). They have 1B$ in cash plus 4B$ more they are going to get soon from a credit facility. So they're going to be fine for around 6 months before accounting for nonpayment by some lessors. Seems a bit dicey. I am assuming of course no assets sales into this environment. They disclosed during their March 11 presentation that as of Dec 31, they had $8.2B in available liquidity so I believe their credit facility is larger than $4B. They disclosed their unencumbered planes in a separate line. They claim the net unencumbered value there is $28.2B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 One thing that people forget with these "contracts" is that they are always negotiable. If Delta gets a bailout and a huge haircut on their equity, don't you think they are going to go to AER and try to re-cut their agreements, and I am only using Delta as an example. I think the stock is thinking about insolvency risk, but these contracts are not iron-clad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunrider Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 One thing that people forget with these "contracts" is that they are always negotiable. If Delta gets a bailout and a huge haircut on their equity, don't you think they are going to go to AER and try to re-cut their agreements, and I am only using Delta as an example. I think the stock is thinking about insolvency risk, but these contracts are not iron-clad. apparently that didn't happen when Alitalia went bankrupt ... so in some ways it seems these contracts are super senior debt .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edward Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Contracts are generally very strong, but it could get ugly in some scenarios. Personally I like investing in companies in which I don't need to think about such things (Debt/liquidity), but to each his own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peregrine Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Adequate liquidity to cover this year's debt maturities by more than 2x so there's no risk of forced selling into distressed spot markets here. Plus $28 billion of unencumbered assets that the company can borrow against. Of course, market valuing this as if it needs to liquidate TODAY. You're probably not going to find many punters to encumber such assets for a while. It is a matter of their lessors being mostly solvent so they can service their debt. A binary outcome at this point. Nice upside, substantial risk due to the debt levels. Both AAL and DAL got secured credit facilities at LIBOR + 200 type spreads recently so the secured market is still fairly liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peregrine Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 A few items from the 20-F: https://investors.aercap.com/shareholder-resources/sec-filings/content/0001378789-20-000004/0001378789-20-000004.pdf Page 7: "As of December 31, 2019, we had 299 new aircraft on order, which will require substantial aircraft purchase contract payments. Subsequent to December 31, 2019, we exercised an option to purchase an additional 50 Airbus A320neo Family aircraft. In order to meet these commitments and to maintain an adequate level of unrestricted cash, we will need to raise additional funds by accessing committed debt facilities, securing additional financing from banks or through capital markets transactions, or possibly by selling aircraft. " Related CAPEX is around 3-4B$ annually, which they might not be able to finance for a while. They also have 3.5B$ of maturities this year (page F-29). They have 1B$ in cash plus 4B$ more they are going to get soon from a credit facility. So they're going to be fine for around 6 months before accounting for nonpayment by some lessors. Seems a bit dicey. I am assuming of course no assets sales into this environment. A lot of CAPEX is no doubt being deferred in this environment as the OEMs can't even deliver planes right now due to travel restrictions lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 They have 1B$ in cash plus 4B$ more they are going to get soon from a credit facility. So they're going to be fine for around 6 months before accounting for nonpayment by some lessors. Surely they’re ok for 6 months if all clients stop paying immediately? Which seems unlikely. Or have I misunderstood your numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edward Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Surely they’re ok for 6 months if all clients stop paying immediately? Which seems unlikely. Or have I misunderstood your numbers? Correct. A very simplistic assumption. P.S. After some number crunching I decided to become a shareholder in this thing. It would seem to be a mezzanine debt like risk disguised as a stock. Directly comparing it to Airline bonds, this is effectively 25 cents on the dollar while airline bonds go for 80-90 cents. Hope not to become a mindless cheerleader in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Surely they’re ok for 6 months if all clients stop paying immediately? Which seems unlikely. Or have I misunderstood your numbers? Correct. A very simplistic assumption. P.S. After some number crunching I decided to become a shareholder in this thing. It would seem to be a mezzanine debt like risk disguised as a stock. Directly comparing it to Airline bonds, this is effectively 25 cents on the dollar while airline bonds go for 80-90 cents. Hope not to become a mindless cheerleader in the process. I agree with this assessment. I'd be very interested in thoughts on hedging this. As I'm interested in potentially making it a very large position but think there is some risk of a zero. I think put options on an ETF of international airline bonds would be perfect, but but doubt that exists. Any suggestions would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edward Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Hedging in this environment might be dangerous because your spread can be blown out of the water short term while your broker cancels margin on the stock. Buying calls is probably safer as far as leverage goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elliott Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 A lot of CAPEX is no doubt being deferred in this environment as the OEMs can't even deliver planes right now due to travel restrictions lol. Totally agree with this statement. Further, an investor I know, who has a good knowledge of the whole sector, told me that OEMs will slow down deliveries if they think the market is not able to absorb them (to avoid aircraft prices plummeting). More so if their customers do not want as many planes anymore. Not sure, however, exactly how that would work out, given the production constraints of OEMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peregrine Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 A lot of CAPEX is no doubt being deferred in this environment as the OEMs can't even deliver planes right now due to travel restrictions lol. Totally agree with this statement. Further, an investor I know, who has a good knowledge of the whole sector, told me that OEMs will slow down deliveries if they think the market is not able to absorb them (to avoid aircraft prices plummeting). More so if their customers do not want as many planes anymore. Not sure, however, exactly how that would work out, given the production constraints of OEMs. Yes, that's what they've done in the past. Any deferrals will come with price increases when times are good. Also, the virus hasn't hit all countries the same and the recovering countries are beginning to see a resumption to normalcy and countries that haven't been really affected are still flying. So they can move around the order book. Lastly, when push comes to shove, they'll get government help and airlines will to in the form of low interest loans for purchase orders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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