merkhet Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 I get to introduce Bob Shiller at the National Press Club tonight. Anyone have any questions they want me to ask during the Q&A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 I get to introduce Bob Shiller at the National Press Club tonight. Anyone have any questions they want me to ask during the Q&A? ARE WE IN A BUBBLE YET! And if we are what asset class? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peter1234 Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Is it inevitable that we will have another bust or could things just slow down and self correct without a major bubble top and bust bottom? ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cobafdek Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Have you modified your views of Eugene Fama's work in any way, since the time of sharing the prize? Is market inefficiency and investor irrationality all-or-nothing? Or are markets sometimes efficient, and investors (as a crowd) sometimes rational (like in the short-term, or in the long-term)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted April 21, 2015 Author Share Posted April 21, 2015 I get to introduce Bob Shiller at the National Press Club tonight. Anyone have any questions they want me to ask during the Q&A? ARE WE IN A BUBBLE YET! And if we are what asset class? Assuming you meant equity markets. Not quite. Valuations are certainly high, but it's not quite irrationally so yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted April 21, 2015 Author Share Posted April 21, 2015 Is it inevitable that we will have another bust or could things just slow down and self correct without a major bubble top and bust bottom? ;) He didn't quite answer this about equity markets, but he addressed this in terms of bond markets. He stated that in the history of the bond markets from 1850s or so, there hadn't been a serious crash of any sort in the bond markets -- nothing on the level of equity markets. The worst dip he could find was a blip during 1982 when Volcker hiked up interest rates severely to break the back of inflation -- and even then bonds dropped 12%. Shiller thinks that Yellen is unlikely to do more damage than Volcker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted April 21, 2015 Author Share Posted April 21, 2015 Have you modified your views of Eugene Fama's work in any way, since the time of sharing the prize? Is market inefficiency and investor irrationality all-or-nothing? Or are markets sometimes efficient, and investors (as a crowd) sometimes rational (like in the short-term, or in the long-term)? He falls in the sometimes efficient and sometimes irrational crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor-man Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Sounds like an interesting conversation. Thanks for sharing! Any chance of a video? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cobafdek Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Have you modified your views of Eugene Fama's work in any way, since the time of sharing the prize? Is market inefficiency and investor irrationality all-or-nothing? Or are markets sometimes efficient, and investors (as a crowd) sometimes rational (like in the short-term, or in the long-term)? He falls in the sometimes efficient and sometimes irrational crowd. Thanks. I wish I could be in a small roundtable discussion with him. Judge Sweeney next? Or is she disqualified for being a non-Yalie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peter1234 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Is it inevitable that we will have another bust or could things just slow down and self correct without a major bubble top and bust bottom? ;) He didn't quite answer this about equity markets, but he addressed this in terms of bond markets. He stated that in the history of the bond markets from 1850s or so, there hadn't been a serious crash of any sort in the bond markets -- nothing on the level of equity markets. The worst dip he could find was a blip during 1982 when Volcker hiked up interest rates severely to break the back of inflation -- and even then bonds dropped 12%. Shiller thinks that Yellen is unlikely to do more damage than Volcker. Thank you merkhet! :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted April 21, 2015 Author Share Posted April 21, 2015 Sounds like an interesting conversation. Thanks for sharing! Any chance of a video? I didn't see anyone recording the talk, so I don't think there is a video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted April 21, 2015 Author Share Posted April 21, 2015 Have you modified your views of Eugene Fama's work in any way, since the time of sharing the prize? Is market inefficiency and investor irrationality all-or-nothing? Or are markets sometimes efficient, and investors (as a crowd) sometimes rational (like in the short-term, or in the long-term)? He falls in the sometimes efficient and sometimes irrational crowd. Thanks. I wish I could be in a small roundtable discussion with him. Judge Sweeney next? Or is she disqualified for being a non-Yalie? Oh, believe me, if I could have a small roundtable discussion with Judge Sweeney, I'd be all over it -- pending a determination from my lawyers on the legality of such a talk, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted April 21, 2015 Author Share Posted April 21, 2015 I also got the chance to ask Profess Shiller about negative rates. He mentioned that he was not too worried because they're only a little bit negative. He'd be more worried if they were more negative. In his estimation, he figures that it's a question of "well, what else are you going to do with your money?" His thought experiment is to imagine that you have $10 million, and your banker calls you up and says, "your rate is going to be negative." What are you going to do? Withdraw your money and put it in cash? That's a lot of suitcases to stuff under the mattress. Are you going to invest it in European equities? Well, most people are terrified of how Europe is doing economically, so they'd rather not -- i.e. it's a matter of taking a guaranteed very small loss (negative rates) versus gambling and possibly taking a very large loss in the markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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