turar Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 FWIW, I think my whole family got some kind of stomach bug after eating Chipotle last weekend. Not going there again for a long while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmp8822 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 FWIW, I think my whole family got some kind of stomach bug after eating Chipotle last weekend. Not going there again for a long while. Interesting you mention that, I went to Chipotle a few weeks ago, which was the day after I returned from Cancun - I became very sick a couple days later. I assume it was something from Mexico. My wife was asking me where I'd eaten since we returned home (she didn't get sick after Mexico), and I told her I had been to Chipotle and McDonald's. She responded, "You went to Chipotle?!?!". She might be one of the 'permanent' customer losses for Chipotle. Also, one other anecdote. I went to Chipotle again yesterday because I received a coupon in the mail for a totally free burrito. Somewhat concerning from a business perspective for them that they might be needing to win back traffic by giving away free food. I will report back if I become sick in the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Can confirm: am dead after eating Chipotle all the time now that there's no lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Can confirm: am dead after eating Chipotle all the time now that there's no lines. Bwahaha. I've actually been doing the same, but that's why I hadn't pulled the trigger on the stock yet. The two stores that I'm familiar with in NYC are nowhere near as crowded as I used to seem. I was expecting further sales declines and the potential for large drops after disappointing earnings. Was hoping to get it after one of those - we'll see if waiting it out was a smart strategy or not... :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hillfronter83 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Can confirm: am dead after eating Chipotle all the time now that there's no lines. Bwahaha. I've actually been doing the same, but that's why I hadn't pulled the trigger on the stock yet. The two stores that I'm familiar with in NYC are nowhere near as crowded as I used to seem. I was expecting further sales declines and the potential for large drops after disappointing earnings. Was hoping to get it after one of those - we'll see if waiting it out was a smart strategy or not... :/ Same here with a store in one of the more popular NJ malls. Many of my colleagues would eat at CMG 50% of time whenever we go to the mall for lunch. The store has less than 10 customers every time we pass by and none of my colleagues ate there since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bci23 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Can confirm: am dead after eating Chipotle all the time now that there's no lines. Bwahaha. I've actually been doing the same, but that's why I hadn't pulled the trigger on the stock yet. The two stores that I'm familiar with in NYC are nowhere near as crowded as I used to seem. I was expecting further sales declines and the potential for large drops after disappointing earnings. Was hoping to get it after one of those - we'll see if waiting it out was a smart strategy or not... :/ Same here with a store in one of the more popular NJ malls. Many of my colleagues would eat at CMG 50% of time whenever we go to the mall for lunch. The store has less than 10 customers every time we pass by and none of my colleagues ate there since. Has anyone else noticed a dramatic slowdown in efficiency of the chipotle line? A year ago if there were 20 people in line ahead of me, i would be in and out in 10 minutes no problem. Now if there are 10 people ahead of me it freaking takes 15-20 minutes to get through the line. Based on my observation, its a combination of reduced labor (3 line workers instead of 4) and also just a general lack of any urgency on the part of the employees. Even if the business comes back, based on my experience, their restaurants won't even be able to properly handle the volume properly and will piss people off. Also, it seems their solution to curing e-coli concerns has been to just start burning the food, specifically the chicken and steak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hillfronter83 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Can confirm: am dead after eating Chipotle all the time now that there's no lines. Bwahaha. I've actually been doing the same, but that's why I hadn't pulled the trigger on the stock yet. The two stores that I'm familiar with in NYC are nowhere near as crowded as I used to seem. I was expecting further sales declines and the potential for large drops after disappointing earnings. Was hoping to get it after one of those - we'll see if waiting it out was a smart strategy or not... :/ Same here with a store in one of the more popular NJ malls. Many of my colleagues would eat at CMG 50% of time whenever we go to the mall for lunch. The store has less than 10 customers every time we pass by and none of my colleagues ate there since. Has anyone else noticed a dramatic slowdown in efficiency of the chipotle line? A year ago if there were 20 people in line ahead of me, i would be in and out in 10 minutes no problem. Now if there are 10 people ahead of me it freaking takes 15-20 minutes to get through the line. Based on my observation, its a combination of reduced labor (3 line workers instead of 4) and also just a general lack of any urgency on the part of the employees. Even if the business comes back, based on my experience, their restaurants won't even be able to properly handle the volume properly and will piss people off. Also, it seems their solution to curing e-coli concerns has been to just start burning the food, specifically the chicken and steak. My colleague literally told me this a minute ago since she knows that I follow their stock: she and a few of friend finally decided to go back try CMG last week. The vegetables in the meal they got was so bad they had to call the manager and get refund. The food was threw away. Maybe the low turnover has a negative effect on their food quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 I recently went back to Chipotle, and my sense is that it tastes different. Now that could be subjective, but my guess is that the new blanching methods or whatever they've implemented to be e. coli free have changed the taste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccplz Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Chipotle keeps on climbing higher and higher since I highly recommended it when it was at $400! On to $600 we go... Are you paid to pump up CMG stock or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 How can I get some free food? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 How can I get some free food? In DC, they sent me two free coupons for burritos in the mail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 How can I get some free food? Go and raid merkhet's mailbox for free couponz while he's on vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 How can I get some free food? Go and raid merkhet's mailbox for free couponz while he's on vacation. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Lol seriously! ;D CMG is giving millions of dollars worth of free food but yet I get no love. :'( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Lol seriously! ;D CMG is giving millions of dollars worth of free food but yet I get no love. :'( In NYC you had to text them a promotional code and then you were sent a link with a mobile coupon. I heard about it from a friend and promptly passed along to all of my other friends - never saw any of the original advertising promoting it though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Lol seriously! ;D CMG is giving millions of dollars worth of free food but yet I get no love. :'( In NYC you had to text them a promotional code and then you were sent a link with a mobile coupon. I heard about it from a friend and promptly passed along to all of my other friends - never saw any of the original advertising promoting it though... I was able to do that too -- the DC direct mail thing was completely separate from that. (Or rather, I think it was? Perhaps they sent the direct mail to people who texted.) And yes, that means I have received basically three free burritos to fareast's zero. Sorry bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Lol seriously! ;D CMG is giving millions of dollars worth of free food but yet I get no love. :'( In NYC you had to text them a promotional code and then you were sent a link with a mobile coupon. I heard about it from a friend and promptly passed along to all of my other friends - never saw any of the original advertising promoting it though... Some people are more equal than others... I was able to do that too -- the DC direct mail thing was completely separate from that. (Or rather, I think it was? Perhaps they sent the direct mail to people who texted.) And yes, that means I have received basically three free burritos to fareast's zero. Sorry bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Since I can't get free food, I didn't go in but I can report the two Chipotles near my work have pretty short lines during lunch. The lines used to be out of the door. This is in San Francisco financial district. Couple of my coworkers have said they will never go back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I'd go back if they change their business model to everything being free all the time. Honestly though, I have local burrito joints that are better than Chipotle, so I hardly go to Chipotle anymore just for that reason. Downside for chipotle is that it's a pretty easy business model to replicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TorontoRaptorsFan Posted March 18, 2016 Author Share Posted March 18, 2016 Chipotle keeps on climbing higher and higher since I highly recommended it when it was at $400! On to $600 we go... Are you paid to pump up CMG stock or something? Just a big fan of their food. Every company encounters difficult points in time (New Coke, AMEX oil Scandal). Chipotle is taking the correct course of action to make sure they resolve this problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TorontoRaptorsFan Posted March 18, 2016 Author Share Posted March 18, 2016 I'd go back if they change their business model to everything being free all the time. Honestly though, I have local burrito joints that are better than Chipotle, so I hardly go to Chipotle anymore just for that reason. Downside for chipotle is that it's a pretty easy business model to replicate. You could say that about every restaurant chain: Hamburgers: McDonald's, Burger King, Wendy's, Shake Shack, Smash Burger, In-N-Out, etc Pizza: Papa Johns, Jet's Pizza (which I love), Pizza Hut, Dominos, Donatos, Little Caeser's, Pizzera Locale (owned by Chipotle) Asian: PF Changs, Panda Express, Shophouse (owned by Chipotle), etc There's thousands upon thousands of restaurants. Lots of businesses have easy to copy models. It's how it gets implemented from a one store concept to thousands of locations which is the HUGE difference. If CMG drops back down to $400 I'll buy more shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bci23 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 It's nice that you're a fan, but I hope you realize it's kinda ridiculous to pump a stock on a value investing forum. Chipotle keeps on climbing higher and higher since I highly recommended it when it was at $400! On to $600 we go... Are you paid to pump up CMG stock or something? Just a big fan of their food. Every company encounters difficult points in time (New Coke, AMEX oil Scandal). Chipotle is taking the correct course of action to make sure they resolve this problem. what chipotle is going through is much more serious than New Coke or the Oil Scandal in my opinion. Chipotle now has a reputation of being dangerous to eat at. Something like a menu change customers revolted against might be a better comparison to New Coke. Coke never had a "Coca Cola poisoning scandal of 1985" it had to recover from. Chipotle's entire business is changing. The way they prepare their food is more time consuming, more expensive for quality control, and as far as i can tell they are now burning the steak chicken and veggies as a way to prevent ecoli - this makes the food taste worse. Sales are down, gross margins are likely permanently down with the new procedures they have in place. The sales decline puts their entire growth runway in jeopardy as locations that were previously expected to be good investments are no longer good projects on current sales levels. Never mind all of the above, CMG is still priced as an aggressive growth company, we are value investors. Where is the downside protection? disclaimer: I still eat at CMG twice per week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 I agree on the valuation aspects, but I don't know that it's a death knell. Jack-in-the-Box eventually recovered from its e.coli incident, but, then again, their customer base is different than Chipotle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWWProject Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 New Investor Presentation March 16th: http://ir.chipotle.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=194775&p=irol-presentations Doesn't paint a nice picture to me. Paid meals still down around 25%. Even if the growth story is still in place, the stock price is still too high for my taste. I'd be interested around $310. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winjitsu Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Another promo currently in the works to follow up from last month's free burrito: free guac and chips http://time.com/4266172/chipotle-free-chips-guacamole/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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