Liberty Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 I thought that this vehicle for 3G and Berkshire should probably have its own thread. Thanks to Scott Hall for re-bringing that one to my attention, it had kind of slipped away. I haven't really looked at it, but it's not too hard to imagine that it'll do well. Simple recipe: Cut fat, increase margins, try to change the culture to be more effective at getting growth, make a big acquisition once in a while, rinse, repeat. The main question is valuation. I haven't really done the work, but it doesn't seem cheap at first glance. But it could turn out to be cheap if they succeed with their model, it all depends on how much value they can create, and how fast they do it. For reference, there's the original thread about the Heinz acquisition over at the Berkshire board: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/berkshire-hathaway/berkshire-acquires-heinz-for-72-5-ps/ I thought the new public entity could use its own thread on the investment board. The merger presentation is probably a good place to start to get an overview: http://www.heinz.com/data/pdf/Kraft_Heinz_Investor_Presentation_2015-03-25.pdf Anyway, curious to hear other people's thoughts on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
folivera13 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 17 Mile has some good posts with valuation math (http://seventeenmile.com/2015/06/22/events-krft-proxy-analysis-june-2015/) By my numbers it is trading at approx 20x 2017 FCF. Dividend yield is ~2.9%. I think to have strong returns the stock now depends on 3G beating estimates and another big M&A deal (which is very likely to happen once they delever). Leverage should be close to 3x by 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
original mungerville Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Agree. If we characterize the valuation of this one using Bill Ackman's taxonomy, I would say it is fully priced on a stand-alone basis, however, there is little platform value which has been assigned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest moneystockholder Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Has anyone read the short thesis on VIC? Here's the link: http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/KRAFT_FOODS_GROUP_INC/136533 Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvesting101 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Thesis seems to be exclude effect of reduction in interest payment in combined company. Heinz has $8bn in preferred issued to Buffet at 9%. If this is financed by debt there would additional increase of ~$300 million. From ProForma table of new company HNZ EBITDA increases from $2,839 in 2014 to $3,265 increase of about 15%. Seems pretty good for slowing dying business with negative 5% sales growth. But then why project 3.29% increase in KRFT EBITDA? Can it be higher? If it around 10% that would be increase in another $200 million. What about growth of KRFT brands in outside US? There is considerable scope for growth outside US for KRFT projects. It will not be very fast growing company but international distribution of Heinz will be leveraged by Kraft to increase overseas sales and margins. In the long run, some US food brand will be not accepted overseas but some of them will be. Ketchup was cited by Buffet as a brand that travels better. I feel cheese also fits into that category. Long term growth for this business will come from financial and operational leverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 I don't think all the large brands are dying, but they are definitely losing market share to private labels. I'm pretty sure there was a similar dip in market share at other times in their history. Higher inflation and market share stability or small gains could make this a decent investment (especially at a lower price). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Re the short case, I don't understand how you could short something owned by 3G and Buffett, aren't there 100000 other more viable options? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysinvert Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Re the short case, I don't understand how you could short something owned by 3G and Buffett, aren't there 100000 other more viable options? Marketing. We all know who Doug Kass is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Re the short case, I don't understand how you could short something owned by 3G and Buffett, aren't there 100000 other more viable options? Cause Tesco and Posco were such bad shorts... ;) Edit: OK, I'll throw in KO in 1998 just for fun. ;) OK, I'll give you that 3G was not involved. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bookie71 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 I believe that the difference is that WEB is buying the company which has a type of moat. The others are looking at the stock and when you don't have control, the stock can be over price or under priced (e.g. Coke) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
portfolio14 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 I don't think all the large brands are dying, but they are definitely losing market share to private labels. I'm pretty sure there was a similar dip in market share at other times in their history. Higher inflation and market share stability or small gains could make this a decent investment (especially at a lower price). Are you referring to a cyclical swing or a permanent change of consumer preference. I think human psychology doesn't change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Kraft to Slash 2,600 More Jobs, Close Seven Plants Company announces more job cuts amid plant closures; had also planned to sharply cut into its white-collar workforce http://www.wsj.com/articles/kraft-to-slash-2-600-more-jobs-close-seven-plants-1446668634 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest neiljgsingh Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Has anyone taken another look at this? It's currently trading right around where it debuted. I figure it's worth some discussion as it's now Buffett's second-largest position after WFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTermView Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 Berkshire's 2015 annual report says this: That leaves us with our Kraft Heinz holding carried on our balance sheet at a value many billions above our cost and many billions below its market value, an outcome only an accountant could love. The balance sheet shows $23.4 billion under Investments in The Kraft Heinz Company and Note 6 on page 51 breaks it down as $15.7 billion common + $7.7 billion preferred. If the balance sheet showed the market value of this investment then what would it be? The annual report says they own 325.4 million shares of khc and the Dec 31 price was $72.76 so that comes to $23.7 billion. If the balance sheet showed market value then would it be $31.4 billion which is $23.7 billion common + $7.7 billion preferred? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 The preferred will be redeemed in July for $8.32 Billion, so that would be close to the fair value if there was a quoted price. The shares would be marked at market minus the tax liability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTermView Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 The shares would be marked at market minus the tax liability. Does my $23.7 billion number sound right for the common shares market price apart from taxes? Would taxes be part of the $63.1 billion of deferred taxes on the liability side of the balance sheet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Hello - they account for Kraft Heinz using the equity method. But if they owned a smaller percentage and did not use equity method accounting the math would be 325.4 million shares x current market price ($76.50), which is currently $24.893 Billion worth of common. The deferred capital gains tax liability on the common would then hang out in deferred tax liability on the balance sheet. Some say, a form of 'float' since it is unlikely to be paid out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTermView Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Got it, makes sense. If they owned a smaller percentage such that they didn't use the equity method then the common shares portion of the asset would show as $23.7 billion as of Dec 31 and $24.9 billion as of yesterday with tax implications lumped into deferred taxes on the liability side. I guess they got to the common shares value of $15.7 billion with the equity method by starting with the initial investment at cost and then adding their percent of retained earnings over time. If anyone has the breakdown of the specific numbers that led to the $15.7 billion figure then I'd like to see it. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ugadawg_98 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 I expect a very favorable bond offering in next 60 days or so to redeem BRK's 9% preferred. Should be a positive catalyst for credit, analysts, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Here is the bond offering you were looking for. Great rates. Too bad for BRK but they knew it was coming. Another $8.3 Billion headed to BRK's cash account on June 7th... http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1637459/000119312516602356/d102086d8k.htm I expect a very favorable bond offering in next 60 days or so to redeem BRK's 9% preferred. Should be a positive catalyst for credit, analysts, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 3G Capital raising up to $10 billion for takeover, blog says http://www.reuters.com/article/us-3gcapital-m-a-fundraising-idUSKBN1331BJ?type=companyNews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Fortune has a new article on KHC - http://fortune.com/kraft-heinz-merger-3g-capital/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Damnit, I was hoping to get some UL with a little more weakness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 WTF Opened a position yesterday because it fell like 4%. Figured why not. 1 ft hurdles and all. Hard to screw up the business. Usually I'm on the opposite side of these moves... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 WTF ... ... Usually I'm on the opposite side of these moves... lol. I have also had that particular feeling many times. So I started buying in drips to avoid it, after which I in many cases have found myself averaging up. Maybe we should just start trading, thereby making everybody except ourselves rich. Congrats on your realized gains on AIG and BAC. - - - o 0 o - - - Back to KHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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