Xerxes Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 A podcast on IAC and ANGI came back in Nov, but just listened to it now. Browse to Nov 9. https://yetanothervalueblog.com/podcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formthirteen Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Vimeo valued at more than $5 billion through new investments: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/vimeo-valued-at-more-than-5-billion-through-new-investments-11611608735 The company initially raised $200 million at a pre-money valuation of $5.2 billion before an additional $100 million investment valued it to $5.7 billion, according to a statement. T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. and Oberndorf Enterprises invested in Vimeo. These latest investments follow a $150 million equity raise that the company announced in November 2020. “The capital will provide Vimeo with additional cash to accelerate its investments in growth, innovation and talent,” the company said. Vimeo saw 57% revenue growth in December, which was its highest monthly growth rate on a year-over-year basis during 2020, per the release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 For years IAC was "cheap on a sum of the parts" story where a holdco discount was unwarranted because of management's demonstrated history of creating value. I don't think there's any holdco discount at IAC's current share price. Here's my back-of-the-envelope math: IAC market cap = $21 billion (89 million shares at $237/share) Major Assets: Post-Vimeo spin net cash: $2.9 billion [source: 2020 annual letter published yesterday] ANGI: $6 billion [421.9 million shares at $14.26/share] Vimeo: $5 billion [~89% ownership at recent $5.8 billion private market equity raise valuation; this is about 20x revenue] MGM: $2 billion [59 million shares at $32.30/share] Dotdash: $1 billion [about 15x EBITDA] Search: $250 million [5x EBITDA] Total: $17.25 billion IAC also has its other/emerging segment that includes, among other things, Care.com. But I don't think that segment is currently worth $3.75 billion. So, it looks to me like there's finally a Diller/Levin holdco premium in the price. Anyone think otherwise? By the way, given all the value they created at IAC over the years, I'm not saying it's wrong to pay for Diller/Levin's expertise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peridotcapital Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 In this market environment, the bet buyers are making today is probably that Vimeo at 5B will likely look like a bargain in a couple years. Heck, it might even be 10B by year-end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I think that most of the parts are not that great (including ANGI) and therefore I'd rather not pay over SoTP especially with some of the parts (Vimeo) inflated. But I've been consistently undervaluing this. And I still hold largish position. So ./shrug. I would not buy here. I probably should sell some, but possibly won't FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I would not buy here. I probably should sell some, but possibly won't FWIW. I hold IAC in a non-taxable account, so I'm considering selling with an eye toward re-buying after the Vimeo spin in the event Peridot is right and the post-spin IAC declines by alot more than $5 billion. The obvious alternative is to do nothing, and if Vimeo jumps after its IPO, sell it then. If I was holding IAC in a taxable account I don't think I'd sell yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I would not buy here. I probably should sell some, but possibly won't FWIW. I hold IAC in a non-taxable account, so I'm considering selling with an eye toward re-buying after the Vimeo spin in the event Peridot is right and the post-spin IAC declines by alot more than $5 billion. The obvious alternative is to do nothing, and if Vimeo jumps after its IPO, sell it then. If I was holding IAC in a taxable account I don't think I'd sell yet. Selling almost anything in taxable account is usually wrong choice. 8) Majority of my holdings are in non-taxable accounts, so taxes don't get into the decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Questions for those who know ANGI list better than IAC. How do you think the recent event in Texas (tragic as it is) could help ANGI bolster its e-platform. I don't think demand has ever been an issue, but could this be a catalyst for its fixed pricing where the platform could quickly match up supply and demand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Questions for those who know ANGI list better than IAC. How do you think the recent event in Texas (tragic as it is) could help ANGI bolster its e-platform. I don't think demand has ever been an issue, but could this be a catalyst for its fixed pricing where the platform could quickly match up supply and demand. If you are tradesman in the affected area, your phone is probably ringing non-stop - what do you need Angi’s list or any other intermediary for? That’s the problem with Angi’s list, currently there isn’t enough supply of services. Of there is a demand issue, then it’s a different story and Angi’s list can shine to generate demand for underutilized crafts people. Right now it’s the opposite. I have used Angi’s list years ago with great success when we moved to a new area and needed an AC system replaced. At that time, many contractors were underutilized, so we get offers. We used contacts from our realtor, Angi’s list and Costco (which ended up being the most expensive offer despite a promotion they were running). Nowadays, you are happy if anyone answers your phone or replies to an email. They don’t need Angi’s list at all right now. Angi’s list can add value, if they bring additional supply to market or help ew contractors just starting out etc. Fixed price is great from a customer perspective but sort of misses the mark when the main question is “how quickly” rather than “hoe much?”. So I don’t think Angi will benefit from this situation at least not in the short term. For the longer term, they can probably use this crisis as a customer acquisition tool (even if they can’t covert them into revenues near term). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Questions for those who know ANGI list better than IAC. How do you think the recent event in Texas (tragic as it is) could help ANGI bolster its e-platform. I don't think demand has ever been an issue, but could this be a catalyst for its fixed pricing where the platform could quickly match up supply and demand. I assume the supply of, for example, plumbers is going to be very tight for quite some time in Texas and other areas that are going to be dealing with a lot of busted pipes. Based on ANGI's recent calls, times like that may not the best for ANGI because they are one among many channels for plumbers and other service professionals to find customers. It's in the professionals' interest to fill up their calendars via the cheapest customer acquisition channels possible, such as simply word of mouth and inbound calls from google searches, rather than more expensive channels like ANGI. I think you can see this dynamic in the percentage of marketplace service requests ANGI has been able to monetize recently. The data is available on slide 4 here: https://ir.iac.com/static-files/2d2df88c-c416-4903-976d-650c3c582f4c In 2019, ANGI monetized 58% of service requests. In 2020, service requests increased almost 18%, but monetized requests increased only 3.7%, resulting in the company monetizing only 51.4% of requests in 2020. Management's explanation of this data is lack of available supply because service professionals were busy, i.e., they filled up their calendars from other sources. If that was the case during COVID, I suspect it's going to be even more true among certain types of service professionals in Texas and other areas in the aftermath of the cold spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Thanks folks, Agreed that the supply-side doesn't need ANGI demand pipeline in this situation given the abundance of work, but if it can insert itself as e-platform in-between matching supply and demand without getting a cut, it can (to your point) lower future acquisition cost for the consumer and even buy some goodwill. Or if they can bring extra capacity from the outside at a cost to them. Either way it will be an investment they have to make. It is just hard for me to believe that a firm that whose raison d'etre is this kind of work, will not find a way to capitalize on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Thanks folks, Agreed that the supply-side doesn't need ANGI demand pipeline in this situation given the abundance of work, but if it can insert itself as e-platform in-between matching supply and demand without getting a cut, it can (to your point) lower future acquisition cost for the consumer and even buy some goodwill. Or if they can bring extra capacity from the outside at a cost to them. Either way it will be an investment they have to make. It is just hard for me to believe that a firm that whose raison d'etre is this kind of work, will not find a way to capitalize on this. I risk to sound like a broken record, but personally ANGI "inserting itself" has had zero value to me as a customer in the past. I'll believe it when I see it. ::) Curiously enough I (still) have a position in ANGI. Mostly because of (mistaken?) belief in IAC owners/management and somewhat cheapish valuation. I'm gonna be very positively surprised if ANGI manages to multibagger from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 A gentleman published this few days ago, and after reading it and I was thinking about IAC 2.0 and its non-controlling stake in MGM and/or for that matter what Atlas is to Fairfax. Can it that be a third business of a sort to FFH ... "Charlie and I want our conglomerate to own all or part of a diverse group of businesses with good economic characteristics and good managers. Whether Berkshire controls these businesses, however, is unimportant to us. It took me a while to wise up. But Charlie – and also my 20-year struggle with the textile operation I inherited at Berkshire – finally convinced me that owning a non-controlling portion of a wonderful business is more profitable, more enjoyable and far less work than struggling with 100% of a marginal enterprise. For those reasons, our conglomerate will remain a collection of controlled and non-controlled businesses. Charlie and I will simply deploy your capital into whatever we believe makes the most sense, based on a company’s durable competitive strengths, the capabilities and character of its management, and price. If that strategy requires little or no effort on our part, so much the better. In contrast to the scoring system utilized in diving competitions, you are awarded no points in business endeavors for “degree of difficulty.” Furthermore, as Ronald Reagan cautioned: “It’s said that hard work never killed anyone, but I say why take the chance?”" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 February metrics: https://ir.iac.com/static-files/7a83ea42-c5df-47c1-b0bd-46a0f45cf384 Vimeo and Dotdash continue to fly. Even Search had y-o-y revenue growth. ANGI continues to confuse. Marketplace requests up 17% and transacting professionals up 9%, but monetized transactions up only 3% and marketplace revenue actually down 2%. Perhaps the inability to monetize the ample traffic is what got the CEO fired (at least he appears to have been fired). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 ANGI continues to confuse. That's my pretty persistent feeling about ANGI. ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hasilp89 Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 Good interview with Vimeo CEO. Long runway for this business. https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2021/4/20/22392228/vimeo-ceo-interview-streaming-software-business-anjali-sud?scrolla=5eb6d68b7fedc32c19ef33b4&__twitter_impression=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Thank you. very interesting based on this, i would say Vimeo is to YouTube what is Shopify to Amazon. Was hopping to add to my IAC in 2021, but i think at this point it is foolish, probably super inflated as we are very close to the ex-dividend date of the spinoff (sometimes in Q2). Post ex-dividend date, folks will gravitate what they really want (1) either reminder of IAC or (2) Vimeo, so could potentially catch the IAC stub in a downdraft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 Joey said this twice over 48 hours: on CNBC and on Q1 conference call as if he is conditioning the audience. "In the past we have done buyback for 50% of our shares (guessing referring to 08-09) and that we will (post spinoff) look at both buyback or acquisition." I did not hear of buybacks in the past several quarters. First time for me. Perhaps, they think there might downdraft on IAC post spin off, as not much interesting is left in the "rump". On the conference call, one of the analyst even made the point that from cash flow generation point of view the "rump" post-Vimeo spin off will not have the same cash flows that it had post its other spin off. On the flip side, it has more cash on balance going in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hasilp89 Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 Care.com ceo interview with wsj. -Nice to see safety highlighted after wsj uncovered issues in 2019 -putting child care benefits on par with healthcare benefits - lot of runway with commercial clients if this plays out. Network effect will get stronger. - still a small piece of the pie for IAC...for now. https://www.wsj.com/articles/care-coms-ceo-on-how-covid-19-disrupted-child-care-for-the-better-11621416606?st=9lb2lcq5u5bgg1i&reflink=article_copyURL_share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 VIMEO (VMEO) down 19% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 On 2/4/2021 at 1:19 PM, KJP said: For years IAC was "cheap on a sum of the parts" story where a holdco discount was unwarranted because of management's demonstrated history of creating value. I don't think there's any holdco discount at IAC's current share price. Here's my back-of-the-envelope math: IAC market cap = $21 billion (89 million shares at $237/share) Major Assets: Post-Vimeo spin net cash: $2.9 billion [source: 2020 annual letter published yesterday] ANGI: $6 billion [421.9 million shares at $14.26/share] Vimeo: $5 billion [~89% ownership at recent $5.8 billion private market equity raise valuation; this is about 20x revenue] MGM: $2 billion [59 million shares at $32.30/share] Dotdash: $1 billion [about 15x EBITDA] Search: $250 million [5x EBITDA] Total: $17.25 billion IAC also has its other/emerging segment that includes, among other things, Care.com. But I don't think that segment is currently worth $3.75 billion. So, it looks to me like there's finally a Diller/Levin holdco premium in the price. Anyone think otherwise? By the way, given all the value they created at IAC over the years, I'm not saying it's wrong to pay for Diller/Levin's expertise. Re-running this post-Vimeo spin I get the following: Market Cap: $14.7 billion [89.1 million shares x $165/share] ANGI stake: $6 billion [424.5 million shares x $14.23/share] MGM stake: $2.5 billion [59 million shares x $42.52share] Net cash: $2.8 billion DotDash: $1.2 billion [15x LTM AEBITDA] Search: $250 million [5x EBITDA] Total of those parts: $12.75 billion Stub [Care.com, etc.]: ~$2 billion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 Video interview on Turo Turo CEO: ‘We’re uniquely positioned to alleviate this rental car crunch’ - YouTube Anyone knows the difference between VMEO and VMEOV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 KJP, I am guessing the sum of parts narrative wont capture the value per share add if there would be a large buyback by IAC, which was hinted. At the end, IAC knows it own potential. For instance, what if later-on IAC injects money directly into the within-business unit of MGM that focuses on sport-betting on top of the MGM common shares they have. The sum of parts narrative wont capture those potential right-tail call options. Isn't that worth something, knowing their history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Xerxes said: KJP, I am guessing the sum of parts narrative wont capture the value per share add if there would be a large buyback by IAC, which was hinted. At the end, IAC knows it own potential. For instance, what if later-on IAC injects money directly into the within-business unit of MGM that focuses on sport-betting on top of the MGM common shares they have. The sum of parts narrative wont capture those potential right-tail call options. Isn't that worth something, knowing their history. More broadly it doesn't take into account management's ability (Diller, Levin, etc.) to allocate capital. Historically, there have been times when investors could pay less than nothing for that and the other types of optionality you mentioned, and there are times like today when you appear to be paying something for it. Given IAC's track record, I think it makes sense that it trades above NAV, at least if you calculate NAV in the rather simplistic way I calculated it. But I'm cheap and want to get it appreciably below that NAV. Edited May 25, 2021 by KJP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monsieur_dee Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 6 hours ago, KJP said: Re-running this post-Vimeo spin I get the following: Market Cap: $14.7 billion [89.1 million shares x $165/share] ANGI stake: $6 billion [424.5 million shares x $14.23/share] MGM stake: $2.5 billion [59 million shares x $42.52share] Net cash: $2.8 billion DotDash: $1.2 billion [15x LTM AEBITDA] Search: $250 million [5x EBITDA] Total of those parts: $12.75 billion Stub [Care.com, etc.]: ~$2 billion Thanks for updating that. Got a notification on the decline . Thought there was an over reaction. Was just IAC losing Vimeo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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