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LILA - Liberty Global Latin America tracker


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Listened to the conference call. I must say they sounded very bullish. I really like this. Massive growth potential. I see directors have been buying around this level as well. Just don't know wether I have enough bottle to increase my position. I bought at much higher prices. Saying that it is probably one of my favourite ideas right now.

 

Could you help me find the transcript of the conference call please? I found the conf. call of liberty global, but not the lilac conference call.

 

By the way, I concur with your view on lilac at the moment...

 

Thanks in advance!

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Ive had a look and I can't find a transcript! I listened to the call live. I think maybe if you go to Liberty Global website and listen to the Global call it may be on that as the Lilac conference call was on the same call as the Global one straight after.

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Two takeaways from LILAK's massive move upward (over 11%) today:

 

(1) The market really respects John Malone. This part probably isn't a surprise to anyone reading this.

 

(2) Given its disparate cable, wireless, and undersea fiber Caribbean and Latin American operations, it's really tough to value the company, so the market reacts more to insider signaling than it otherwise might. 

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Any idea on why Malone/Fries decided to Spin-Off LILA/K completely?

 

“The spinoff will benefit LiLac shareholders by creating a stand-alone, asset-backed equity, while enhancing its potential attractiveness as an acquisition currency for consolidation opportunities in the highly fragmented Latin American and Caribbean telecommunications markets"

 

Seems to me that LILAK benefits from the scale of being within the much bigger and stable LBTYA/K when it comes to negotiating programming costs as well as geting more flexibility and credibility to raise debt.

What am I missing here??

 

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I am assuming they will retain those benefits of scale through an agreement, and that the motivation is based on the undervaluation of LiLAC, which might be addressed by making it a proper company rather than a tracker with no legally defined asset base.

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I am assuming they will retain those benefits of scale through an agreement, and that the motivation is based on the undervaluation of LiLAC, which might be addressed by making it a proper company rather than a tracker with no legally defined asset base.

 

I think that's pretty much it. They've mentioned a few times that they would keep in place agreements to keep scale/procurement benefits.

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Did someone take a look of what kind of impact Maria had on the business? If this occurs every 5 years or 10 years, how does that impact returns?

 

I'm not sure how you quantify it exactly. Obviously since PR is a big chunk of current profitability for LILAK, I'm sure guidance is going to be pulled down. However, since the stock is in the toilet, it looks like the market is already anticipating some bad news.  By my math, around $500 - $600M worth of marketcap.

 

Mike Fries said , at a recent conference, they are maintaining guidance for now until they can take stock - this was following Irma.  I would be surprised if they didn't lower guidance for the year considering 3M people are without power in PR alone. He also said that since hurricanes are a recurring event in the Caribbean, they have insurance for it.

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I'm not sure how you quantify it exactly. Obviously since PR is a big chunk of current profitability for LILAK, I'm sure guidance is going to be pulled down. However, since the stock is in the toilet, it looks like the market is already anticipating some bad news.  By my math, around $500 - $600M worth of marketcap.

 

Mike Fries said , at a recent conference, they are maintaining guidance for now until they can take stock - this was following Irma.  I would be surprised if they didn't lower guidance for the year considering 3M people are without power in PR alone. He also said that since hurricanes are a recurring event in the Caribbean, they have insurance for it.

 

I'd guess they have insurance for their powerplant, but would they have insurance for business interruption/losses?

 

If PR is without power for 6 months, that would hit revenues there. Unless they charge even when there's no service?

 

Anyway, you are right that if someone looks short term, then revenue/earnings impact will be likely significant. Whether stock will drop further or not - who knows. Longer term possibly not significant unless PR cannot rebuild.

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I'm not sure how you quantify it exactly. Obviously since PR is a big chunk of current profitability for LILAK, I'm sure guidance is going to be pulled down. However, since the stock is in the toilet, it looks like the market is already anticipating some bad news.  By my math, around $500 - $600M worth of marketcap.

 

Mike Fries said , at a recent conference, they are maintaining guidance for now until they can take stock - this was following Irma.  I would be surprised if they didn't lower guidance for the year considering 3M people are without power in PR alone. He also said that since hurricanes are a recurring event in the Caribbean, they have insurance for it.

 

I'd guess they have insurance for their powerplant, but would they have insurance for business interruption/losses?

 

If PR is without power for 6 months, that would hit revenues there. Unless they charge even when there's no service?

 

Anyway, you are right that if someone looks short term, then revenue/earnings impact will be likely significant. Whether stock will drop further or not - who knows. Longer term possibly not significant unless PR cannot rebuild.

 

 

Yeah it's a good question re: business interruption.  I don't know the answer.

 

I'm sure they will forfeit subscription revenue for the lack of service being delivered/received. 

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