NotSoWise Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Spek, you are right in all above. As for reve mix it is improving very slowly as long term prepaids will decline and cable will increase, but slowly. Then you have the wireless and fixed internet convergence to somewhat improve the situation. However, what CHTR does with MVNO mobile is better as its much less capex. LILAK will not escape mobile capex, so the economics will be worse. Fortunately 5G is 3-5 years away for LILAK as they are not yet 100% 4G. Still, when you plug in 3% organic growth in the model plus buybacks, it quickly becomes USD 30-60 stock in 5 years, depending on the exit multiple you use. Looks crazy high from todays price perspective (and given 50% price decline over past 4 years), but it is how the model works. Under 0% organic growth, it looks to me like USD 20 maybe even USD 25 stock in 5 years (FCF to M&A or buybacks, plus some multiple re-rate after COVID is done) So not much downside from the current price with a good chance for significant upside. This is why I still hold. But if I am wrong and see they cant grow (like LBTYK) then will sell along Zinterhofer. He has it as a PE investment, so he will need to exit at some point and will pick a good timing for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysinvert Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Yo WSB, you see what's happening with LILAK today? Squeezy time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysinvert Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 An analyst on the call suggested that the subsea network alone at $400m revenue and 50% margins could be worth pretty much the entire market cap on a peer valuation basis. Management agreed and seemed to imply that they had interest in it from multiple parties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadOfLeverage Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 An analyst on the call suggested that the subsea network alone at $400m revenue and 50% margins could be worth pretty much the entire market cap on a peer valuation basis. Management agreed and seemed to imply that they had interest in it from multiple parties. That would be something. Imagine Millicom SPAC'ing Tigo Money / Tigo Pay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysinvert Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 An analyst on the call suggested that the subsea network alone at $400m revenue and 50% margins could be worth pretty much the entire market cap on a peer valuation basis. Management agreed and seemed to imply that they had interest in it from multiple parties. That would be something. Imagine Millicom SPAC'ing Tigo Money / Tigo Pay. Lol, fingers crossed but not holding my breath in anticipation of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysinvert Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Looks like Telefonica is not getting quite the price that they wanted on the subsea. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-12/telefonica-may-keep-hold-of-subsea-cable-unit-in-asset-overhaul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysinvert Posted April 7, 2021 Share Posted April 7, 2021 Telefónica receives offers this week for its 2,000 million submarine cable Companies (smallcapnews.co.uk) $2.4b price tag for Telefonica's subsea network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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