Picasso Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-14/paulson-hedge-funds-said-to-plunge-in-september-as-stocks-fell Paulson’s four largest disclosed U.S. stock holdings at the end of the second quarter -- the most recent date for which such data are available -- were health-care companies. Allergan Plc, Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc., Shire Plc and Mylan NV all fell more than 10 percent in September, a month in which the S&P 500 Health Care Sector Index dropped 5.8 percent. Classic Paulson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 Classic Paulson. I respect your point of view, though mine keeps being different: I still believe Paulson will make money with both AGN and VRX. We will see! ;) Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 RBC Capital Markets Says Buy These 5 Pharmaceutical Stocks, Despite 'Irrational' Sell Off http://www.thestreet.com/story/13334553/1/rbc-capital-markets-says-buy-these-5-pharmaceutical-stocks-despite-irrational-sell-off.html?utm_content=buffer546e6&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=eb Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Pfizer and AGN looking at merger, apparently. http://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-allergan-considering-combining-1446079506 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Interesting that VRX tried buying ACT a while back before the AGN deal. How things would have been different. The gio thread no one cared about might be the best performing one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted October 29, 2015 Author Share Posted October 29, 2015 The gio thread no one cared about might be the best performing one. Picasso, I understand some people like to be sarcastic for sarcasm’s sake… But you seem to know all the “gio threads”, while I don’t know any “Picasso thread”… So, are you criticizing without getting any exposure to criticism yourself? Do you think it is fair? ??? So, let’s do the following if you’d agree. You are very aware of what I look for: the best compromise between quality of business + quality of management and stock price I can find. Instead of sarcastically commenting my threads, won’t you let me know some ideas of yours? If you know businesses that are of a higher quality, led by more capable and more reliable operators, and which could be bought at more attractive prices, than the businesses I own right now, I will be very glad to take them into serious consideration. Believe me: I couldn’t care less they are your ideas, not mine. If you convince me your ideas are actually better, I’ll sell mine and buy yours without any problem. Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted October 29, 2015 Author Share Posted October 29, 2015 Allergan Deal Could Take Pfizer Closer to Split, Move Abroad http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-29/allergan-deal-could-take-pfizer-closer-to-split-up-move-abroad Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted October 29, 2015 Author Share Posted October 29, 2015 Allergan plc Confirms Discussions Regarding Potential Business Combination Transaction With Pfizer Inc. http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/allergan-plc-confirms-discussions-regarding-potential-business-combination-transaction-with-pfizer-inc-300168745.html Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Maybe that came off wrong. My point is that the threads with less interaction often do the best. In this case AGN has done a lot better than VRX which is hundreds of pages long. But no one really cares about this idea so I find it funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Grey512 Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 I care. Long AGN & ENDP. But considering selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest neiljgsingh Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Very interesting company and growth prospects. Enjoyed a nice bump these past few days on the Pfizer news. Ken Fisher's view I think is right---AGN isn't viewed correctly by institutional investors and has enjoyed very little support from actively managed funds (the passives are all in it, of course). What few actives own AGN still see it as an alternative to some of the better-known generics, but of course the business is shifting from there dramatically. This dislocation/misunderstanding is probably due in part to the Actavis merger that's still underway. A few more good quarters and we should see some change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted November 4, 2015 Author Share Posted November 4, 2015 Allergan Reports Exceptional Third Quarter 2015 Continuing Operations Performance with 90% Increase in Net Revenue to $4.1 Billion and 65% Growth in Non-GAAP EPS to $3.48 http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/allergan-reports-exceptional-third-quarter-2015-continuing-operations-performance-with-90-increase-in-net-revenue-to-41-billion-and-65-growth-in-non-gaap-eps-to-348-300172007.html Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZenaidaMacroura Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I really hope Pfizer-Gan doesn't happen. Am I right in saying that there's no way the deal makes economic sense unless they pull a tax inversion on Pfizer? If not it would be a reverse tax inversion right? I feel like tax-inverting Pfizer would create a LOT of political motivation to scurtinize the industry even more - plus it rules out the possibility of picking up AGN sometime in the future, possibly even as the result of deal fallout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Grey512 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I really hope Pfizer-Gan doesn't happen. Am I right in saying that there's no way the deal makes economic sense unless they pull a tax inversion on Pfizer? If not it would be a reverse tax inversion right? I feel like tax-inverting Pfizer would create a LOT of political motivation to scurtinize the industry even more - plus it rules out the possibility of picking up AGN sometime in the future, possibly even as the result of deal fallout. That's what worried me so I'm out of AGN now. Hoping to buy again when the merger dies and AGN trades down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Allergan is a roll-up of many companies (aka platform company). Over the last few years, they did some huge deals... How come it doesn't have the same issues as VRX? They are just better at buying companies, growing sales, RD, managing debt and etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Allergan is a roll-up of many companies (aka platform company). Over the last few years, they did some huge deals... How come it doesn't have the same issues as VRX? They are just better at buying companies, growing sales, RD, managing debt and etc? they did not push the limits of credulity like vrx did. there are limits as vrx is finding out, to balance sheet, to opacity, to arrogance, to deals, to transparency, to slashing, to prices. And agn was smart not to push things to those limits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Ackman's Modest Allergan Proposal http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2015-11-18/pfizer-allergan-merger-bill-ackman-dan-loeb-have-other-ideas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZenaidaMacroura Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I'm surprised this isn't up: According to informed sources, Pfizer (PFE -3.9%) and Allergan (AGN -2.6%) are negotiating a break-up fee of 2 - 3% of Pfizer's potential bid of $150B for the BOTOX maker. The upper range of the fee, $4.5B, sends a clear signal that Pfizer does not view the Treasury Department's upcoming anti-inversion regulations as an impediment to a deal. Previously: Pfizer said to be near deal to buy Allergan for as much as $380/share (Nov. 18) I know the anti-inversion proposal is pretty damning but this is trading at 25% discount to the rumored deal? If it's so unlikely what's up with the huge breakup fee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 att screwed up their regulatory analysis when they tried to buy tmus. they ended up having to cough up a massive break up fee. buyers can get the regulatory analysis way wrong. comcast got it wrong about twc, but there was no break up fee involved, which was strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Short memories. The merger arbs almost went out of business after the Shire fiasco. Not sure they are too eager on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 There's going to be a lot of new Pfizer shares on the market if this deal gets done, and probably a lot of initial selling pressure. I'm surprised by how little cash consideration there is. Does Pfizer think their shares are overvalued or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 I'm surprised by how little cash consideration there is. Does Pfizer think their shares are overvalued or something? This structure is required to make the deal eligible for tax inversion, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graham Osborn Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Allergan is a roll-up of many companies (aka platform company). Over the last few years, they did some huge deals... How come it doesn't have the same issues as VRX? They are just better at buying companies, growing sales, RD, managing debt and etc? they did not push the limits of credulity like vrx did. there are limits as vrx is finding out, to balance sheet, to opacity, to arrogance, to deals, to transparency, to slashing, to prices. And agn was smart not to push things to those limits. There's only 1 real difference between AGN and VRX IMO - in AGN's case Saunders was clever enough to "pin" the stock price by listing the entire business as sold. By reflexivity, AGN/ VRX used precisely the same rollup/ pricing strategy to achieve their sales growth, and both misrepresented nature of said growth to their investors (see recent email chain between Schiller/ Pearson). Teva is set to pay a huge overvaluation for the generics business (we already know based on VRX's disclosures that their organic growth rates are primarily price based), and Pfizer to pay a lesser (in the tune of mergermania) premium for the rest. Saunders knew the M&A market was overheated and figured PFE would collapse less than most (which is why he ignored VRX and AMGN). This is very reminiscent of the Sprint/ Worldcom merger, which is why I'm betting against it. Now, once the Teva deal closes that drives a wedge between the two in the sense that AGN really will have more cash, enough to cancel the debt and leave it with what PFE will buy, which is still valued at the incorrect growth rate (through leveraged growth/ price hikes). That's the kicker. And PFE or the gov't will realize this in the midst of an all-out bear market. So it's not the kind of clean play that VRX was, but it's a good one nonetheless IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Saunders knew the M&A market was overheated and figured PFE would collapse less than most (which is why he ignored VRX and AMGN). This is very reminiscent of the Sprint/ Worldcom merger, which is why I'm betting against it. Are you betting the merger is not going through in the end? Or that PFE is going to have trouble and decline after the merger has happened? Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graham Osborn Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Hey Gio! I remember you took me to task on my VRX article, which I ended up appreciating because most people just ignored it. Anyway, I'm basically betting the merger will either not go through or be "substantially renegotiated," and that this news will be a catalyst for reevaluation by the market at the unlevered, volume-based growth rate. Unlike most people I think the monopoly concern will be greater than the inversion concern for regulators. At this point it is one in a bucket of puts; I posted my portfolio on the "Value Meets Macro" strategy thread. Cheers, Graham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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