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AXP - American Express


Guest Schwab711

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  • 4 months later...
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Anybody worried about credit quality here? I recently got a new Amex charge card, and through a variety of circumstances ended up putting ~50% of my annual pre-tax income (which they knew because they asked when I applied) on it in the first month. It doesn't have a set limit, and I was very surprised they approved that much spend on a card with no history for a new client. I'm good for the money, but they didn't ask my net worth during the application process I don't think, and certainly didn't verify it. They did check my credit, which is good.

 

Obviously the plural of anecdote isn't data, but I wouldn't have granted a file with the information they had on me that much credit if I was them... Maybe they're just smarter than me, as they probably made back the sign up bonus on swipe fees in the first week or so...

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Amex reached out to me on Linkedin a few years ago to offer me a business credit card.  At the time, my business was smaller and there was not as much reported income.  I wasn't getting approved by others for business credits cards which I needed for more streamlined tax reporting purposes.  I guess they mine the Linkedin history and realized that I have been in business for a couple years.  Since then, I periodically get these offers of $50k at 10% interest rate and no real loan underwriting process that you have to go through with a mortgage.  It's hard to get excited about this when I just got refi at 3.5% on my real estate asset.  But it is interesting that they do take a somewhat non-traditional approach to underwriting.  I used to never understand why people use Amex.  Now that I have been a platinum card member for a couple years, I love the Centurion Lounge at LGA and can't wait for the JFK one to open up.  I hope the one year free offer form WeWork still works.  Never bothered looking into it.  I think they have the best app for saving credit card receipts.  As I get older, I am starting to appreciate the allure of carrying an Amex card.  Their customer service is much better.  I want not allowed into a Delta Club one time because my wallet got stolen and I did not have the Platinum card on me.  I called Amex to complain and they were just compassionate.  I felt like a person and not a number.  The Delta Club in Chicago can go f themselves turning away someone with a police report stating that my wallet got stolen.  I could really use the lounge to unwind and relax that day.  The AMEX people were wonderful when I called to complain and gave me a bunch of points.  People remember stuff like this.

 

More anecdotes not studies. 

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there is a limit , it's not no limit.

you can login and check 'spending power' in your account.  they seem to have a formula based on your income, credit history, etc.

 

I'm sure there is a limit of some kind. I just haven't been able to find it, and I tried pretty hard...

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Anybody worried about credit quality here? I recently got a new Amex charge card, and through a variety of circumstances ended up putting ~50% of my annual pre-tax income (which they knew because they asked when I applied) on it in the first month. It doesn't have a set limit, and I was very surprised they approved that much spend on a card with no history for a new client. I'm good for the money, but they didn't ask my net worth during the application process I don't think, and certainly didn't verify it. They did check my credit, which is good.

 

Obviously the plural of anecdote isn't data, but I wouldn't have granted a file with the information they had on me that much credit if I was them... Maybe they're just smarter than me, as they probably made back the sign up bonus on swipe fees in the first week or so...

 

Plus I assume you have to pay charges in full by the next billing cycle.

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I keep thinking about this and tha valuation gap versus MA and V.  Like, I get that there's a theory those networks are much larger so the network effects are stronger and no credit so less lumpy, but it also seems like they kind of have more large constituents pulling on their margins:  a lot of big issuers on one side and then big merchants on the other.  Seems like maybe Amex at least doesn't have to cut other banks in on the fees (to a large degree).  From a quick search, it looks like amex has WAY fewer cards; let's say like 110 million versus like 1 billion cards each for MA and V; but the 2018 (U.S. only) spending statistics I see are AMEX had $775 billion versus $811 billion and $1.95 trillion for MA and V respectively (from annual reports pulled together in an article on credit card website/blog). 

 

I guess that was kind of Buffett's point in the 2018 and 2019 annual meetings...basically they dominate the higher end and spending per card and have the brand cachet/elite network that should help them navigate the changes in the future.

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  • 4 months later...

I have been buying AXP as well. I believe their business model is more flexible than that of most financial institutions. Also, their loan book has relatively short duration, so they won't have to spend years taking charges for bad loans. Capital levels look good as well.

 

AXP rebounded fast after the financial crisis. I am hoping for a repeat here. But I am okay holding for longer if the rebound is slower this time.

 

 

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  • 1 month later...

I have been buying AXP as well. I believe their business model is more flexible than that of most financial institutions. Also, their loan book has relatively short duration, so they won't have to spend years taking charges for bad loans. Capital levels look good as well.

 

AXP rebounded fast after the financial crisis. I am hoping for a repeat here. But I am okay holding for longer if the rebound is slower this time.

 

I bought AXP in 2009 when the company was around $14 per share and wish I had sold it when it was trading in $130 range..  I hope they are buying back aggressively at these levels (I would even be ok with them suspending dividends to buy back when it gets really cheap).

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  • 3 months later...

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