Spekulatius Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 New CEO is 86'd today after some type of personal conduct investigation. Interesting to me at these prices. I still think this company gets sold. Probably wants too high a price to make sense for Berkshire. I purchased a starter position this morning. We'll see how this develops https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-08/axalta-ceo-steps-down-for-conduct-inconsistent-with-policies PPG spoked sector a little here. But that will give Axalta breathing room to increase prices too, if they haven’t already. If you look at PPG release their issues were very similar to what Axalta faced the last year or so. So that will be interesting to see if that occurs again... PPG ‚issues seem to be driven by crude prices, which are going to affect AXTA as well. Apparently, Mr Market thinks likewise - stock is down 7%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ander Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Stock continues to sell off. Anyone following? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walkie518 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Stock continues to sell off. Anyone following? in October, the CEO, Terrance Hahn, resigned...a couple weeks ago, general counsel resigned AXTA believed Hahn may not have complied with company policies, whatever that might mean more recently, the interim CEO was named CEO market likely doesn't like the shake-up, but I don't think it changes the business materially my guess is that higher oil prices depress FCF artificially in the upcoming quarter and the decline since October doesn't reflect until the quarter after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RadMan24 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Raw materials are generally down in price. Offering a tailwind. At $22, it’s pretty attractive. Roberts should be a good CEO, knows how to allocate capital. They will be buying some stock. Market has dropped them after PPG warning and auto sales cooling and trade wars. Latin America should bounce back soon. Europe might be soft with recent regulatory delays in approving vehicles plus Brexit and French uncertainty. Just typical cycles. But at $22, for a solid refinish and industrial coatings business, valuation attractive on FCF basis (using normalized maintenance Capex). On a reported earnings basis they won’t look cheap, but look at historical cash flows and guidance for more meaningful valuation work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 I have this on my watchlist. One concern I have is that there are a lot of adjustments in the numbers, so many that I wasn’t able to reconcile the cash flow statement and it seemed to me that the FCF (which was dusted downwards late this year by more than $100M) is overstated. Why would maintenance capex be normalized? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RadMan24 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Working Capital has been elevated due to long term customer contracts, which has been the drag on FCF, but they expect 20%+ returns on these contracts. This was the main drag on the FCF guidance being down from prior quarter. They discuss the FCF on the call today for guidance in 2019 which is materially higher and also includes elevated working capital for additional long term contracts. They will also have accruals on restructuring liabilities as that flows through the Belgium plant closing. The benefits of which should begin 2020. Regarding capex, it's been around $150 million, which includes some major expansions and R&D in China and Germany. You back out some of these growth initiatives, include some recent acquisitions, normalized capex probably around $90-100 million. Raw materials for lots of resins and polymers remain high due to tariffs and supply disruptions. They plan to be aggressive on transportation pricing to increase EBITDA margins there. Very little volume growth assumed in 2019 guidance numbers. Volume growth would be a catalyst 2020 onwards. In the meantime, pricing and refinish market share gains are expected to drive revenue gains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vince Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Working Capital has been elevated due to long term customer contracts, which has been the drag on FCF, but they expect 20%+ returns on these contracts. This was the main drag on the FCF guidance being down from prior quarter. They discuss the FCF on the call today for guidance in 2019 which is materially higher and also includes elevated working capital for additional long term contracts. They will also have accruals on restructuring liabilities as that flows through the Belgium plant closing. The benefits of which should begin 2020. Regarding capex, it's been around $150 million, which includes some major expansions and R&D in China and Germany. You back out some of these growth initiatives, include some recent acquisitions, normalized capex probably around $90-100 million. Raw materials for lots of resins and polymers remain high due to tariffs and supply disruptions. They plan to be aggressive on transportation pricing to increase EBITDA margins there. Very little volume growth assumed in 2019 guidance numbers. Volume growth would be a catalyst 2020 onwards. In the meantime, pricing and refinish market share gains are expected to drive revenue gains. Good post, would you care to tell us what mgmt is saying about fcf levels this year and next? Just so I dont have to go look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpha Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Announced they are exploring a sale today. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-axalta-strategic-alternatives/buffett-backed-axalta-coating-systems-to-explore-a-sale-idUSKCN1TK1EL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 Anyone has any idea what's going on with this today? No news that I can find that drove the stock off a cliff today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broeb22 Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 Anyone has any idea what's going on with this today? No news that I can find that drove the stock off a cliff today. Maybe because fewer cars are being produced because none are selling, Fiat closed their European plants today, people are driving less (according to Buffett) so getting into fewer accidents, so maybe there's a big drop in auto coating demand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RadMan24 Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 Anyone has any idea what's going on with this today? No news that I can find that drove the stock off a cliff today. Maybe because fewer cars are being produced because none are selling, Fiat closed their European plants today, people are driving less (according to Buffett) so getting into fewer accidents, so maybe there's a big drop in auto coating demand? They had $1 billion in cash at fiscal year end. FCF has been $450-500m range. Stock was firm due to sale prospects, those have gone out the window as of late. They will make it out of this alive, but yes, it's lost 40% in no time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now