Wilson-TPC Posted November 21, 2015 Author Share Posted November 21, 2015 Converts won't get converted. Burgundy owns max position size allowable already, which is 20%. That's the firm subscribing to 11 million out of the 14 million in converts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Anyone know why GXE is down almost 10% with energy and oil up so strongly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
argonaut Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I assume part of it is the new stock issue dilution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimjam Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 New monthly report from Gillmore is out and discusses the company valuation compared to peers: http://www.gearenergy.com/LiteratureRetrieve.aspx?ID=229410 Best, jimjam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 New monthly report from Gillmore is out and discusses the company valuation compared to peers: http://www.gearenergy.com/LiteratureRetrieve.aspx?ID=229410 Best, jimjam So it looks middling. Which seems right based on the unexpected dilution hit, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 I am not sure that you would call a CD$2 value middling. That is the common value at a 7x DACF multiple, the average of the group. Also the projected $14,600 of efficiency is really low especially for oil. At 3.3x DACF and CD$19,700/boe this is one of the cheapest O&G plays out there. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Looking at the first chart they provided, there are dots that are same price or cheaper with similar results. There are dots with better results but at a bit higher prices. Depending how you look it might be in cheapest quartile. OK, so I'll go with "cheapest quartile" vs. middling. ;) It looks "cheaper" in second chart, but debt/cash-flow is not really a valuation metric. It is only an issue at extremes. So I don't think second chart is very useful. Is that more in line with your thoughts? ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 I agree but you also need to look at the current presentation to get a more complete viewpoint. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matts Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Packer, Gear is down another 20%. At these levels, are you more or less bullish on the name today than a month ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I am still bullish but it may take longer than originally expected. You have some deep pockets willing to invest here (Burgundy) at favorable terms (6% debt financing) and Don Grey buying more shares. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redhots Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Can someone explain to me what is going on here? Looks like Gray bought and sold on the same day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
influx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Can someone explain to me what is going on here? Looks like Gray bought and sold on the same day. Ask their IR and let us know? It is here too https://www.sedi.ca/sedi/SVTWeeklySummaryACL?name=W1ALLPDFI&locale=en_CA maybe he sold unintentionally ... then bought it again back maybe some tax related activity interesting nevertheless, while not overly material Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 It could be simply moving the shares from one entity to another. Since he is an insider these have to be reported. Say that one of his personal holdings company divested the shares and another one bought them. Not sure why it couldn't be done privately but, looks like they did a cross between two brokers (could be the same). Maybe faster to do it that way than filing transfer paperwork between accounts. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redhots Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 From Ingram. Good morning. Regarding your question on the recent trading. Mr. Gray moved shares between registered and non registered accounts that could only be accomplished by selling and then buying the shares. Even though it is the same share amount and the same price SEDI consider it an insider trade and so it must be logged as such. Kind Regards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
influx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I think it is a wonderful entry point...I am tempted :) Dont know where to add :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimjam Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 According to this article, Gear are shutting in production: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/oil-sands-firms-curtail-production-to-cope-with-plunging-prices/article28136804/ Oil patch curtails production to cope with plunging prices Gear Energy Ltd. chief executive officer Ingram Gillmore started 2016 with modest plans. Spending for the year had been chopped to $31-million, down roughly 70 per cent from its original 2015 budget, assuming a U.S. oil price of $51.50 (U.S.). The Calgary-based company planned to eke out production gains of 6 per cent by drilling 36 wells from an inventory of lower-cost heavy oil properties in the Lloydminster area on the Alberta-Saskatchewan border. Instead, the rigs are sitting idle and the spending plans are on hold. Now, Mr. Gillmore is assessing whether to curtail thousands of barrels a day of production as U.S. crude prices buckle to about $30 a barrel. So far, the company has halted 500 b/d as profit evaporates. “We essentially put our drilling plans on hold and, ultimately, it’s batten down the hatches, survival mode for us,” Mr. Gillmore said in an interview. Across Western Canada, oil companies are performing the energy-industry equivalent of triage to cope with a relentless slide in prices that shows few signs of easing. For now, analysts say oil sands behemoths have the financial heft to keep pumping, even at a sharp loss. But some companies are taking the more drastic step of turning off the taps – a sign that months of cutbacks are beginning to dent output. Last week, oil sands producer Connacher Oil and Gas Ltd. said it planned to begin maintenance at its steam-driven Great Divide project earlier than planned, citing weak commodity prices. It said the move would lower output by about 3,000 b/d. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., whose operations span Western Canada, curtailed nearly 5,600 b/d of so-called conventional heavy oil output last year. Baytex Energy Corp. has suspended about 2,400 oil-equivalent b/d at its Canadian operations. To be sure, the moves represent a fraction of the Canadian industry’s overall output, with many of the reductions affecting heavy oil operations. However, analysts say more companies could dial back production as U.S. and global crude prices teeter at around $30 a barrel. In the oil sands, producers may time maintenance shutdowns to avoid the worst of the market pain, effectively curtailing production without saying so, said Mark Oberstoetter, analyst at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie. “Eventually, you’ll see the less well-capitalized companies start to take the longer-term, riskier decisions of looking into shut-ins,” he said. For smaller companies such as Gear, the equation is especially grim. Gear pumped about 5,400 oil-equivalent barrels a day of primarily heavy oil in the third quarter. Some of its least-efficient wells cost about $30 (Canadian) a barrel to operate, including expenses for transportation, fuel and labour. It pays another $6 in provincial royalties, plus fixed costs of $1.50, all to produce a barrel of extra-thick crude that today is fetching less than $20. On Tuesday, U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil touched $29 (U.S.) a barrel for the first time since 2003 before closing at $30.44 a barrel. Western Canada Select oil sands crude traded at roughly $15 under that, broker Net Energy Inc. said. Gear’s super-thick oil is subject to a further discount of about $5 (Canadian). “So, not good,” Mr. Gillmore said. Rather than pump crude at widening losses, the company has used gains from financial hedges to pay down debt, he said. Still, lenders in October chopped its borrowing limit to $60-million from $90-million to reflect a darkening commodity price outlook. “This oil price is not sustainable for the majority of Canadian production,” Mr. Gillmore said. “If I’m shutting in production, it’s because I think I’m slowing the bleed of cash flow. Ultimately, I’m sitting here waiting for prices to recover or for costs to dramatically drop.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 All quiet here as well! I bought some in the last months and am in the green but expected to be more so honestly with the lastest moves in oil. Is it because of the shut in or simply the WCS discount being so huge at the moment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Nevermind. :D Hitting myself on the head for not having the balls to buy more but that's how it always goes. Hope you guys are holding some as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Nevermind. :D Hitting myself on the head for not having the balls to buy more but that's how it always goes. Hope you guys are holding some as well. Partially OT. I actually managed to get whipsawed out of some oil positions during the plunge to $20s. Did not sell Gear, but sold BNKJF low, switched DNR common to bonds (common up 4x, bond maybe 1.5x), almost sold CHK bond at $.12 luckily no takers at the time (haha, efficient market), sold most of PWE, sold CFX. Luckily bought BRS bond. And maybe NOV + CLKFF will get up more than the almost-BK-option-like-EPs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 I have read from a few well known value investors that investing is determining the private market value of an asset and to try to buy it for less on the stock market. Currently, Gear Energy trades for $33,300 per boe/d and carries $17,000 of debt per boe/d. Its EV/2P of reserves is $8.32/boe. On the other hand, Twin Butte trades for $18,300 per boe/d (using current price of convertible) and carries $20,700 of debt per boe/d (convertible at par). Its EV/2P of reserves is $4.64/boe. A bit less than half of Twin Butte is the exact same asset as Gear or Lloydminster heavy oil produced with low cost horizontal wells. The other half is Provost medium oil or wells that are also shallow with similar cost but, with a product that sells for more than heavy oil. It appears that Twin Butte cannot find a buyer for itself at around these prices. So if you are a Gear Energy holder and are also exposed to bank credit line redetermination, I do believe that you have to ask yourself what is your margin of safety at current price? What is your downside if the banks also decide to reduce again their credit line and demand some repayment? Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
influx Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 interesting vote http://sedar.com/GetFile.do?lang=EN&docClass=8&issuerNo=00035082&issuerType=03&projectNo=02483269&docId=3917976 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted May 12, 2016 Author Share Posted May 12, 2016 Notice the withheld votes are from a certain shareholder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
influx Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 Notice the withheld votes are from a certain shareholder. True..I dont know who though? The interesting thing for me was that CEO got practically all the votes, while the founder/chairman did not...someone tries to split them this team of two...or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted May 13, 2016 Author Share Posted May 13, 2016 His name starts with D and ends with on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 June 1 borrowing base review coming up. Expecting a lowering again. Let's hope it's not too much. I'd guess that's why the stock is not doing much despite prices rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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