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GXE - Gear Energy


Wilson-TPC

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Here is the Preliminary Short Form Prospectus

  • More diversified.  (Increase in Light & Medium crude and Gas)
  • Retiring old debt.  New debt will be ~ $49 million
  • The borrowing base will still have a semi-annual review
  • 17.5 - 21.25 million shares offered at $.70
  • Outstanding shares will go from 85 million to 187 million.

 

gear-pro.pdf

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This thing still flying under the radar. Likely because the sector is generally hated, stocks are lagging commodity price increases and because the market cap is way to small for decent sized funds. Not to mention tax loss selling, which I assume can affect small caps easily.

 

- Outsider type chairman and CEO

- Both own plenty of stock and have bought more in recent months.

- D/CF below 1

- low cost operator

- expected to grow CF/share again strongly, always focussing on IRRs

 

Valued at ~3.5xEV/DACF. That valuation made some sense two years ago with Gear much more levered, less diversified, and the general oil storm only starting.  Bought some more recently at $0.72-0.75.

 

 

Anyone with a bearish view willing to share? Other than thesis based on oil <$45 WTI.

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I've bought more since I wrote my last post almost a year ago, and it's one of my largest and favorite holdings despite it doing nothing since I bought it.

 

This thing still flying under the radar. Likely because the sector is generally hated, stocks are lagging commodity price increases and because the market cap is way to small for decent sized funds. Not to mention tax loss selling, which I assume can affect small caps easily.

 

- Outsider type chairman and CEO

- Both own plenty of stock and have bought more in recent months.

- D/CF below 1

- low cost operator

- expected to grow CF/share again strongly, always focussing on IRRs

 

Valued at ~3.5xEV/DACF. That valuation made some sense two years ago with Gear much more levered, less diversified, and the general oil storm only starting.  Bought some more recently at $0.72-0.75.

 

 

Anyone with a bearish view willing to share? Other than thesis based on oil <$45 WTI.

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For what it's worth, Don Gray bought 350.000 shares at $0.82 two weeks back. Chump change for him but counts as a vote of confidence nonetheless!

 

Also liked how Ingram Gillmore bought 8.500 shares just to get to an even 1.200.000 shares. :D

 

 

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I don't understand O&G very well, so I was wondering if someone can clarify why the company is increasing capital expenditure next year with record low prices? Why not wait and see if prices recover before drilling?

 

Canadian Heavy prices have more than doubled off the Jan 16 lows. Not sure what you mean by record low prices.

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I don't understand O&G very well, so I was wondering if someone can clarify why the company is increasing capital expenditure next year with record low prices? Why not wait and see if prices recover before drilling?

 

Canadian Heavy prices have more than doubled off the Jan 16 lows. Not sure what you mean by record low prices.

 

I just mean that, relative to prices over the past 10 years, the price for WCS could be significantly higher.. So why don't companies just stop drilling and wait for prices to recover before doing anything? I mean, the oil's in the ground and it's not going anywhere.. I'm a rookie at analyzing O&G, so just bear with me.

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I don't understand O&G very well, so I was wondering if someone can clarify why the company is increasing capital expenditure next year with record low prices? Why not wait and see if prices recover before drilling?

 

Canadian Heavy prices have more than doubled off the Jan 16 lows. Not sure what you mean by record low prices.

 

I just mean that, relative to prices over the past 10 years, the price for WCS could be significantly higher.. So why don't companies just stop drilling and wait for prices to recover before doing anything? I mean, the oil's in the ground and it's not going anywhere.. I'm a rookie at analyzing O&G, so just bear with me.

 

Just in general for oil companies, if they can get returns above their cost of capital then it's worth while drilling is the view. There are land expiries in some cases which may justify drilling and not deferring. For GXE in particular they cite returns of 40-100% at US$50 WTI so they see it worthwhile to drill. They can also drill and grow within cash flow which should increase value for shareholders.

 

It seems like in general, there is more talk about maximizing cash flow as opposed to growth in the industry and we'll see if that is the case over the next 12 months.

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Well, I guess we are nearly trading at 2x ev/dacf unhedged. Early last year we traded briefly at $1.2, 60% above today's price with production 20% lower and WCS around 20% lower. Given production growth, quality of management, downside risk,... this should trade at at least $2 and would still be cheap. $5+ / share again would not been farfetched in a few years if oil prices recover further and production doubles.

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-crude-trucks-insight/facing-shipping-constraints-canada-moving-oil-one-truckload-at-a-time-idUSKBN1HU0F4

 

 

 

Trucks loaded with crude are an increasingly common sight at the border. Production has risen in the world’s fifth largest producer but full pipelines and a rail car shortage have made it difficult for drillers to ship oil out of Canada.

 

Some oil producers are feeling the pressure from customers. Alberta-based Gear Energy Ltd pumps about 7,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day, and recently had an Asian customer walk away from an agreement to buy crude after failing to secure a way to ship oil to the West Coast.

 

“We’ve never had more inbound calls looking for heavy oil,” said Gear Chief Executive Officer Ingram Gillmore. “And we have never had more challenges actually getting it to them. It is very frustrating.”

 

 

This is not going away, especially with Venezuela imploding faster and faster.

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Stock is definitely lagging oil prices but that makes sense for small caps not in any ETF. ATU.V, PPR.TO, IPO.TO and many others in that camp (but I mention those because I own them!).

 

WCS closed at C$66.20 today (being helped by the weakening CAD). The last time WCS was this high was 2014.

 

http://www.psac.ca/business/GMPFirstEnergy/

 

GMP covers both GXE and ATU and has 2019E CFPS at $0.45 and $0.21, respectively for 2019E at a WCS of $61.57 which is about have the current share price with net cash (i.e. no debt) at that price.

 

 

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