tombgrt Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 You're welcome. With WCS at a $8.2 differential vs WTI at $61.8 for May, WCS is now at $53.6 or CAD$71+! This was rarely achieved in the best months of 2018. We might very well fall back from current WCS pricing later this year but by then Gear will have lowered debt considerably already. I'm assuming they are a bit above $80m now and could end the 2nd quarter below $70m. Even if WTI were to fall back to $50 in H2, debt would be manageable at around 1.4 times FFO. And we all know what happens with WTI around that price level for even a short period of time. There is of course always the risk that Alberta disregards future high differentials by not reinstating the oil curtailments. With CVE stock moving up slowly, there might be hope yet. I have a feeling these micro and small caps will do nothing until they suddenly find some interest and double in value in a matter of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 Volume was giant yesterday in GXE stock (I think highest in almost 5 years). Hopefully, whoever was selling is done for a while! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 Regarding volume, I think it was all due to some crosses at Peters & Co. Saw a similar thing at SDY, ESN and a few others. Not sure what this was. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 With CVE stock moving up slowly, there might be hope yet. I have a feeling these micro and small caps will do nothing until they suddenly find some interest and double in value in a matter of weeks. Up 25%+ in two trading days? Let's hope this is the return of rationality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted April 17, 2019 Share Posted April 17, 2019 UCP wins Alberta election. This should increase the willingness to get the pipelines issues resolved over time and add additional pressure on the federal level for the elections in October. With higher oil prices sticking around, I'm also confident debt will be closer to $60m than $70m by end of Q2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 With CVE stock moving up slowly, there might be hope yet. I have a feeling these micro and small caps will do nothing until they suddenly find some interest and double in value in a matter of weeks. Not quite a double yet but at least we touched nearly 50% yesterday. There is also an updated presentation online and the latest monthly update is out. Nothing dramatic but it is nice to visually see debt going down so fast. 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 Sorry for spamming. But if you need a good laugh: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4255753-gear-energy-diversifies-lighter-oil-production-cash-flow-becomes-less-volatile Paraphrasing: "One of the more expensive Canadian producers out there, trading at premium." ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 Sorry for spamming. But if you need a good laugh: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4255753-gear-energy-diversifies-lighter-oil-production-cash-flow-becomes-less-volatile Paraphrasing: "One of the more expensive Canadian producers out there, trading at premium." ::) I tried to get some info on valuation comparables from him but it's clear he doesn't look at valuation of GXE or any of its peers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 Yes, he just writes trash in every article and doesn't really seem to know much about valuation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
influx Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 The stock is in a quiet period What do you guys think? Whats your holding period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aws Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gear-energy-ltd-announces-board-120000679.html O'Connell, who still owns a little over 5% of the company, is leaving the board. He's been selling very slowly over the past three years. Wonder if a big block of stock will be trading anytime soon. Also, new presentation out: https://gearenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/GearEnergyJuly2019.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gear-energy-ltd-announces-board-120000679.html O'Connell, who still owns a little over 5% of the company, is leaving the board. He's been selling very slowly over the past three years. Wonder if a big block of stock will be trading anytime soon. O’Connell doesn’t directly own the shares but as CEO of Davis Rea is deemed to have control. He only owned 125k directly as noted below from the management circular. “Includes: (i) 10,247,213 Common Shares held by the Davis-Rea Equity Fund; (ii) 2,651,883 Common Shares held by Davis-Rea Ltd.; (iii) and 750 Common Shares held by Solutions Investment Management Inc., each of which are directly or indirectly controlled by Mr. O'Connell; and (iv) 125,000 Common Shares held directly by Mr. O'Connell” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
influx Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 Bottom? Anyone buying? Thoughts? I bought shit load of shares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aws Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 Unfortunately I own a good chunk of them too but I haven't added anything during the drop. WCS is currently 6.45 a barrel (https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/oil#/WCS_Crude). Kind of hard to call a bottom when they are something like 50% hedged and only for a short period. They are a zero unless the prices bounce back hard very quickly, but I see no point in selling at a 90% loss and will just treat it like a soon to expire call option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redhots Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Anyone still holding this? Gear is up about 8x up from the last post. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aws Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 WCS prices are up about 800% as well, so it makes sense, but definitely a crazy turnaround. Obviously I wish I gambled and bought some more shares, even as late as November when we still had the overhang of the convertible debt, but I still have my original shares which are well in the money now. Bought mostly two years ago around C$0.55, and nice to see them finally have a good move up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
influx Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 I am still holding. I am not selling, not yet. That 30% pop was interesting on a big volume. Today is less good, but still up. I am surprised, yeah. Probably a catch-up and. I am guessing somebody relatively big is trying to get in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 I unfortunately switched from GXE to ATU because I thought it would be safer as it has little debt and a management team that doesn't like to dilute shareholders. That means less growth but now that prices are back up they are drilling again. It's only costing me a few hundred percent so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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