gg Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 I'd guess that Novak is probably right. The dollar volume being traded isn't large enough, and the lack of a positive pre-market press release is obviously a sign they didn't finalize it this weekend. So hopefully they will agree on something by the end of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Maybe... Thinking whether now would be a good time to pick a few up. 5:1 payout isn't bad but it seems unlikely in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mountboney Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 For anyone interested in speculating at the last minute. Just for grins I called the ROI number and asked the receptionist what time the reconvened meeting was today. She didn't know anything about a meeting and said the ROI guys are out of the office. So.... either they're at the lawyers office finishing the revised deal or taking the day off after a busted deal. I have just a tiny speculative bet on this, kind of entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gg Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 For anyone interested in speculating at the last minute. Just for grins I called the ROI number and asked the receptionist what time the reconvened meeting was today. She didn't know anything about a meeting and said the ROI guys are out of the office. So.... either they're at the lawyers office finishing the revised deal or taking the day off after a busted deal. I have just a tiny speculative bet on this, kind of entertaining. Which ROI number? The one from their filings goes to Clinton Group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mountboney Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Which ROI number? The one from their filings goes to Clinton Group. Yes, that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sampr01 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 :-[ No update?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Novak Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 No deal. Warrants are $0. Redeeming the common. Sorry, guys, I'm sure this is a rough one for some. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/roi-acquisition-corp-ii-announces-210000417.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted October 26, 2015 Author Share Posted October 26, 2015 For me this is a lesson that market usually has it right. The other factor I overlooked was who is involved in this deal. I was warned about the seller and the buyer had a pretty poor track record also. Their first SPAC went BK. I thought the deal or special situation aspect mitigated this but even in special situations management counts. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saltybit Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 For me this is a lesson that market usually has it right. Packer Packer, just wanted to thank you for bringing this idea to the board. It didn't work out in the end, but the process of validating the idea and warning people to size appropriately was all on point and well-researched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slkiel Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 I second saltybit's comment. This was a very interesting one to follow whether one was invested in it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 For me this is a lesson that market usually has it right. Packer Shouldn't that always be the first assumption? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indirect Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 I had problems trusting New Silk Route guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tfoundry Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Unforunately ROIQW didn't work out. I had the deal pegged at a pretty high probability. Plus I had spoken with Clinton Group a few weeks ago, and they all but assured me that had no concerns about the deal not getting done... Anyone looked at GGACR yet? Brazilian SPAC with Rights trading at $.20 and convert to 1/10th a share of common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Lessons learned: - Sizing is paramount. Not more than 1-2% of portfolio. - Management communication not to be trusted. 8K and proxy pointed towards easy passage, success, etc. - Communication with management helps (thanks Packer for Friday update), but only to the point. See bullet above. - Consider opportunities for exit or cutting the position. Friday was such opportunity. Monday was too though at loss. - Hard deadlines are very bad. A lot of bankrupt companies continue trading after BK, so you can exit, sometimes without a big loss (sometimes with a big loss). With ROIQW, the warrants are halted and you can't exit at all, except at $0. - SPAC tendency to not pass deals has to be weighed accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I had problems trusting New Silk Route guys. Thanks for letting us know you saw this coming one day after the deal broke down :) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indirect Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 If my crystal ball was so clear........ I would have taken a short position. As per my understanding, NSR was not selling their share, they were doing the deal to provide minority owners some liquidity. So incentives not necessarily aligned with ROI sponsors, minority shareholders and major holders of ROIQ. It was more of a gut instinct (knowing NSR ), next time, I will speak up. Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 For me this is a lesson that market usually has it right. The other factor I overlooked was who is involved in this deal. I was warned about the seller and the buyer had a pretty poor track record also. Their first SPAC went BK. I thought the deal or special situation aspect mitigated this but even in special situations management counts. Packer I think looking at the reputation of the people involved in such a deal is paramount. Personally, I avoid investing in nothing where the folks involved are questionable, although I think in this case that was priced in. This could have gone either way and the fact that it went wrong does not necessarily mean it was a stupid bet. I do think that the market is more efficient then some believe in this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now