Gopinath Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Hi everyone, Here is my write up of Iconix brands; I created a new one as I couldn't find any thread relating to this company. Feel free to ask me any questions. http://valuealert.blogspot.com/2015/09/iconix-brand-group-inc-opportunity-at.html Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BraveChieftain Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 I think you really are missing some of the bear points on this name. Namely that this company has pretty fraudulent accounting that is now being scrutinized in the sense that they would buyin JV's and move things to the revenue line to mask what is a business that is declining HSD digits organically. You could also look at how crappy some of their brands are and see what happened with Cherokee recently. Regarding the balance sheet, it's very levered and they will need to pay much higher interest rates once those 1.5% and 2.5% convertible notes come due. Neil Cole should probably be imprisoned based on his involvement in this scam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kirkomi Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Management instability is another issue. Two CFO's resigned in quick succession. Given that the Peanut movie is coming soon and should be very profitable for everyone involved (including management), I can't explain all this shuffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccap Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I looked at this a while back. I think the FCF generation is much lower than people are estimating. If you pull up their brands in Google trends, they are all strongly declining brands. To get their growth, they are on a treadmill of acquiring new brands. To figure out the real owner earnings, you must subtract out this acquisition expense -- because it is not going away. Additionally, they already have a ton of debt. I am concerned that they will soon get to a point where nobody will lend them more money, and the apparent growth rapidly ends. The large debt also gives them sensitivity to interest rates -- at least when they try to roll the loans over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigspydee Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Interesting article. anyone thinks its at a good valuation? with year end sell off and interest rate hike next week. is it a good time to enter? http://seekingalpha.com/article/3674826-iconix-is-not-worth-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
intothebreach Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I'm surprised there's not more love around CoBF for Iconix: - priced as if it's going out of business - there are adults in charge now that the CEO, COO and CFO have been replaced - turnaround expert Peter Cuneo (or Marvel fame, among others) just transitioned from interim CEO to Chairman - the delay in filing their financials and their restatement of past financials creates noise, even though they already announced that they expect the restatement to be a non-cash impairment of past results, with no impact on 2016 - under previous management, ICON apparently did muck around their financials, which adds to the noise - Blackrock now has a material position (material for ICON, not for BLK) - they recently sold two of their non-core brands (last one announced earlier today) - the next stops should be: 1) filing of restated financials, and 2) announcement regarding the refinancing of their debt due in June - the 2018 debt trades cheaply, so there may be an opportunity there as well - the high proportion of shares short could make this interesting fast... In summary, I believe the risk of default to be much lower than what is currently reflected in the market price, and that a catalyst exists in the refinancement of their debt. As such ICON is a fairly large position for me, so contrarian opinions are very much welcome : ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I've looked at it a few times over the past couple of years, but I never got comfortable "building on mud" which is what I treat questionable financials as, especially when the executives "flee for their lives". Hope it works out for you. Personally a Blackrock investment is very meh to me unless it is supported by or linked to a specific manager. They kind of have to own everything, don't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
intothebreach Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Thanks for the perspective (and wishes!). Very much agree with the Blackrock sentiment in general; in this case, it's the timing I like more than the player itself (would not make sense to have increased their position if the financial situation was as dire as it appears at first glance). Also, from their earlier announcements, I think they have pretty much limited the depth of the mud to use your analogy (no question in my mind that the previous management team played around to inflate the cash flow numbers, so I'm actually glad someone decided to clean house). Thanks for stopping by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I did notice when coach slapped the peanuts "icons" on some handbags last year (I'm long COH) they sold like out in like a day at premium prices. Seems like that is very, very viable IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I think every value investor has looked at this. If you like it, you like it for the cash flows. If you don't like it, you think the cash flows are melting ice cubes and that one day the debt won't be supported. Sort of like VRX, but I would have serious concerns about how long-lasting Joe Boxer is (and a lot of the other brands). Additionally, given the lack of strong brands, the negotiations with large partners, i.e. Wal-Mart are much more difficult. You don't shop at wally world because you need joe boxer, you shop for the cheap stuff. In other words, ICON has no leverage in those deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I think every value investor has looked at this. If you like it, you like it for the cash flows. If you don't like it, you think the cash flows are melting ice cubes and that one day the debt won't be supported. Sort of like VRX, but I would have serious concerns about how long-lasting Joe Boxer is (and a lot of the other brands). Additionally, given the lack of strong brands, the negotiations with large partners, i.e. Wal-Mart are much more difficult. You don't shop at wally world because you need joe boxer, you shop for the cheap stuff. In other words, ICON has no leverage in those deals. Funny, I actually mentioned Iconix in the Valeant thread. Very similar situation IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chesko182 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Iconix is exploring selling Peanuts brand in a bidding process which generates ~90mm in revenues. Proceeds would probably go to pay down debt, I suppose they can get between 350-500mm but on the other hand they would take a 45mm hit in EBITDA. Not too happy that they’re selling one of their premium brands but on the other hand the leverage profile should improve to ~5x (assuming EBITDA comes down to 140 and total debt to 700mm) which should help it support a higher multiple. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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