SlowAppreciation Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Curious if anyone has seen data on this - one would assume growth in sports is secular in general. If not, what factors could cause people to lose interest in sports over time? http://www.wsj.com/articles/ratings-fumble-for-nfl-surprises-networks-advertisers-1475764108 I watched an NFL game the other day, and it was painful how much advertising I was forced to watch, to the extent that I won't watch another game until possibly playoffs. I'm only one anecdotal data point--and are therefore meaningless--but I wonder whether Netflix and streaming are reducing people's tolerance for advertising, particularly kids who grow up almost never seeing a TV ad? If that's the case, even if the NFL product is as good as it ever was, fewer people might watch because the advertising is now intolerable to them. I feel similarly. Didn't the WSJ do a study a few years ago across the major sports where they compared "game time" to "action time" and football had something like 2minutes of action for a 4+hour game? When I do want to watch a game now, I'll started streaming the games from forums as they don't air the commercials. Much better that way. One can only see so many commercials for Bud and F150s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Somewhat OT, since I don't watch sports and don't watch live TV with commercials. Like Spekulatius said, watching anything with commercials is just painful. One anecdotal data point is my mother who's not technical at all. She now has cable package with full-auto-DVR functionality for all programs that allows watching past programs, fast forwarding, etc. She's FFing the ads like there's no tomorrow. I was surprised how easy, convenient and simple this is. This is in Lithuania. Don't know if this is available/widespread in US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lincolnc Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Malone on DIS 36:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villainx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Thinking about ESPN and DIS, I wonder if it will get to the point of Buffett's quote: "When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact." Sounds like ESPN is becoming more of a serious issue, and not sure extent of how solvable it is, even assuming Iger is among the greatest CEO ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 We'll need to see how Youtube, DirectTV, Sling and any other skinny bundles perform now that ESPN has penetrated those packages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalfMeasure Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Thinking about ESPN and DIS, I wonder if it will get to the point of Buffett's quote: "When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact." Sounds like ESPN is becoming more of a serious issue, and not sure extent of how solvable it is, even assuming Iger is among the greatest CEO ever. Are you trying to suggest that TV sports networks are a business with poor fundamental economics? I'm all for pieces of Buffett wisdom, but this usage is incredibly misguided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villainx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Thinking about ESPN and DIS, I wonder if it will get to the point of Buffett's quote: "When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact." Sounds like ESPN is becoming more of a serious issue, and not sure extent of how solvable it is, even assuming Iger is among the greatest CEO ever. Are you trying to suggest that TV sports networks are a business with poor fundamental economics? I'm all for pieces of Buffett wisdom, but this usage is incredibly misguided. Maybe it's not at that point yet, or I am being pushing the issues to the extreme, but I'm just trying to think about the ESPN issue. It'll take a while to play out though. Otherwise I remain long DIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educatedidiot Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Thinking about ESPN and DIS, I wonder if it will get to the point of Buffett's quote: "When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact." The days of consistent 5%+ revenue growth and 40% operating margins may be gone, but considering that Disney's cable networks are still generating $6 billion+ of EBITDA, 35%+ operating margins, and virtually no capex / asset intensity -- I'm not sure I'd classify that as a business with "bad economics." You can see the year by year performance of Disney's cable networks here: http://www.rocketfinancial.com/Financials.aspx?fID=5102&p=2&pw=168324&rID=8&tID=1&segID=55416 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregS Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Thinking about ESPN and DIS, I wonder if it will get to the point of Buffett's quote: "When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact." The days of consistent 5%+ revenue growth and 40% operating margins may be gone, but considering that Disney's cable networks are still generating $6 billion+ of EBITDA, 35%+ operating margins, and virtually no capex / asset intensity -- I'm not sure I'd classify that as a business with "bad economics." You can see the year by year performance of Disney's cable networks here: http://www.rocketfinancial.com/Financials.aspx?fID=5102&p=2&pw=168324&rID=8&tID=1&segID=55416 Indeed. Obviously there are subscriber issues as the cable bundle is cracking, which means the growth days for cable/ESPN are over. But there seems to be a view that ESPN faces a permanent squeeze of ever-increasing rights fees and declining subscribers hitting ad and affiliate revenue. I don't see rising costs as permanent. Costs and revenues aren't going to move in lockstep, but over time they are going to move together. In other words, if the audience for televised sports has peaked, then broadcast revenues for the leagues has peaked as well, and will move down as contracts roll off. ESPN has competition for rights, sure, but they all face the same pressures and ESPN has shown a willingness to walk away from deals that don't make sense (e.g., NASCAR). In the meantime, resorts and studio are firing on all cylinders and becoming a more important part of the company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I feel you, but one could also argue that ESPN distribution is totally fungible, they have lost leverage and have been forced to share the operations with the content producers (e.g., all the co-branded networks, such as Longhorn, Big 10 , SEC for example) and there is massive competition coming from Fox, NBC; everyone because sports it the only damn thing people watch live and now everyone knows it (i.e., content costs ain't coming down as fast as revenues and they are all going to get squeezed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villainx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I was looking it more at the angle of how management would tackle the ESPN issue. Iger is more operator than allocator? Or just spinning the issue around to look at it from another side. ESPN is a real issue, which problems are kinda known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Iger acquired Pixar, Marvel and Lucasfilm. Last two being slam dunks. I think he's been fairly good at allocating capital, and that's not including Disney Shanghai. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Iger acquired Pixar, Marvel and Lucasfilm. Last two being slam dunks. I think he's been fairly good at allocating capital, and that's not including Disney Shanghai. I always believe it an important sidenote that Iger gave those 3 targets to the board when he layed out his plan of what he would do as CEO. + shanghai is just unbelievable, what a work that must have been... Returning to ESPN, but you can only say this in hindsight, Disney made the mistake of locking in longerexpensive sports rights just as technology started to allow massive unbundling, which at the moment looks very unfortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Returning to ESPN, but you can only say this in hindsight, Disney made the mistake of locking in longerexpensive sports rights just as technology started to allow massive unbundling, which at the moment looks very unfortunate. What Everybody Misinterprets About ESPN And Disney http://seekingalpha.com/article/4053103-everybody-misinterprets-espn-disney I agree of course that the market has changed, but it doesn't mean ESPN is dying. People will go on watching sports and loving them. ESPN surely must evolve: might multiple subscription-based streaming services, through which consumers can buy sports programs selectively based on personal preferences, be the right solution to its problems? Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 It's hard for ESPN to replace the millions of cable subscribers paying $9 or 10/mo for $7 ESPN, $1 ESPN2, $0.66 SEC Network, $0.23 ESPNU, ESPN News, etc. with 100Ks of subscribers paying $15-20 for specialized content say cricket, football, etc. I do think that cord cutting does abate though. The convenience of the cable bundle plus VOD plus a good navigation system. Youtube TV or DirectTV Now are bundles too, mainly because bundle economics works. http://cdixon.org/2012/07/08/how-bundling-benefits-sellers-and-buyers/ There's a great quote from Jim Barksdale... “Gentlemen, there’s only two ways I know of to make money: bundling and unbundling.” ESPN really overpaid for the MNF rights but thankfully that expires in 2022. I still think NBA rights is probably a good deal in that millennial and Gen Z demos seem to like NBA product more than older demographics who got tired of the Iversons and Sprewells of the mid 90s NBA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 There's a great quote from Jim Barksdale... “Gentlemen, there’s only two ways I know of to make money: bundling and unbundling.” +1 Great quote! ;) Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Exclusive: Disney Iger on movies, parks, ESPN https://www.google.it/amp/www.barrons.com/amp/articles/exclusive-disneys-iger-on-movies-parks-espn-1489744355 Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 Disney's CEO Agrees to Contract Extension Running Until 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-23/disney-s-iger-agrees-to-contract-extension-running-through-2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 +180000 employees and no successor :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 +180000 employees and no successor :D Maybe, no WORTHY successor... Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 I have a feeling that Iger engineered Staggs ouster. We'll never know but for your consideration. Oct 2014 - Iger signs contract through 2018 Feb 2015 - Staggs announced as COO (heir apparent, wins over Jay Rasulo) Nov 2015 - Iger joins Carson Holdings NFL group (Chargers/Raiders stadium in Carson, CA) Jan 2016 - NFL LA relocation committee recommends Carson group Jan 2016 - NFL owners vote for Kroenke group (Rams/Chargers stadium in Inglewood, CA) April 2016 - Staggs leaves Disney (not enough creative experience says Board) March 2017 - Iger extends contract to 2019 Read the glowing piece here on Staggs and how he "won over" all their creative people. One year later, he apparently doesn't have the creative chops. https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/26/business/media/thomas-staggs-disneys-heir-apparently.html I'm not saying Iger didn't want to retire, but really he wanted to move into the NFL gig and when that fell through, it gave him and the board time to reconsider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 Ok but then what's the point of extending only 1 year? That he can make a move into politics for the 2020 election? And Gio, thank you for that clarification, very insightful ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 And Gio, thank you for that clarification, very insightful ::) Well, then I don't understand your own comment. If you already believed that among 180k people it might be hard to find a worthy successor, why making the comment? And although it might be hard, it surely is possible: that's why one more year could be useful and enough. Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 ESPN Has Seen the Future of TV and They’re Not Really Into It As more fans cut the cord and go mobile, the network is busy protecting its cable-TV money machine. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-03-30/espn-has-seen-the-future-of-tv-and-they-re-not-really-into-it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Disney Explored Buying Fox Assets; Talks Now Dead https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-06/disney-looked-at-buying-most-of-fox-talks-now-dead-cnbc-says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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